$200 PLO8 hand against Emptyshell

[Wintermute]

Alright, nobody seems interested, I'll post what I thought was interesting and see if anyone perks up.

When I posted the hand, I ran the matchup at 2dimes with the intention of mentioning how horrible the suckout was. I was a little surprised to find out that preflop, my hand was ahead:

LOlos LOtie EV
4c 8d 8h 3h 198692 320670 155295 24035 4360 179394 30347 0.552
2s 3c 4d Ah 136258 155295 320670 24035 202781 0 30347 0.448

If I had reraised, we surely would've ended up all-in preflop and emptyshell would have effectively been giving me $11.30 in EV earnings. So, then I wondered, does this make his preflop reraise a mistake?

Well, when he catches a nice flop (like this one) he becomes a dominant favorite:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ac 7d 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4c 8d 8h 3h 16 136 673 11 0 427 117 0.132
2s 3c 4d Ah 581 673 136 11 427 0 117 0.868

But let's suppose the flop is slightly less agreeable. Say he flops a pair that kills my low draw but doesn't give him the overpair to my 8's:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing 4s 7d 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4c 8d 8h 3h 236 557 214 49 0 460 9 0.501
2s 3c 4d Ah 205 214 557 49 558 0 9 0.499

Now it's a perfect coinflip.

Worse yet, suppose he only catches one to a low, no ace:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts 7d 9h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
4c 8d 8h 3h 580 689 127 4 0 148 9 0.778
2s 3c 4d Ah 118 127 689 4 160 0 9 0.222

Not that none of these flops are hitting my hand any harder... in fact, they are less attractive for someone sitting with my hand. Yet I'm at 50/50 or way ahead.

The point is that having a great low starting hand in heads up play is not strong in % terms when you're facing a pair in your opponent's hand. In this case, he basically has to catch two wheel cards, an ace, or three low cards to take a decisive lead in the hand. That's not especially likely.

I think in heads up play, the strength of a hand like A234 is that there are many flops where A234 will not be a tremendous favorite but will have the ability to bet strongly with a low draw than can't be counterfeited. Opponents' medium-strength high hands will not often be able to stand up to that kind of heat, so A234 has a lot of post-flop semi-bluff equity.

However, in this case, emptyshell was shortstacked, and the pot was already raised preflop to him. By reraising in that spot, he inadvertantly killed a lot of that semibluff equity. So what I'm getting at is that perhaps in this situation, given the stack size, a call would've been preferable in his situation. On the flipside, this shows how a big pair is a huge advantage in heads up play.

BTW, don't misinterpret this as being a justification for playing a pair of 8's the way I did. I freely admit it was a bad play on my part.

[emptyshell]

No way a call is better. If I reraise, I represent AA (well, that representation is a bit hurt by what I had shown before after a pf reraise). If the flop has 2 or more high cards, you have a difficult time calling my continuation on the flop with your underpair. If there are two low, I've got a nut low draw and most likely at least one pair. The only way it's bad is if you are daring enough to bet out on the flop when two high cards hit, but I think you would be less likely to make this move if I reraise pf than if I didn't.

By reraising, it forced you to play "showdown" poker since you couldn't push me off the hand after my flop bet. Raising before the flop has little to do with preflop equity unless you're getting pot-comitted at that point.

Against most opponents, I'm picking up this pot on the flop after it misses them, and I might as well get as much money in it by that time as I can. I still had plenty of a stack for a flop steal. If I get unlucky and the other guy has something, I'll likely have a good low draw.

[wiseheart]

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
EV
2s 3c 4d Ah 0.353
As Kc 2c Kh 0.647

Just thought Id run a sample on a higher pocket pair too.

I agree the value of a pocket pair goes way up
when playing heads up, although what I noticed
was that you at least had two to a suit in your
hand winter, whereas emptyshell had a rainbow hand.
I thought this would be a good +EV, but as it turns
out it only adds .1 EV to the hand, which is kind
of disappointing . Anyways, against maniac low pushers
at the lower limit HU games I have had good results
with A2pp (pp = pocket pair)

[Wintermute]

I see your point, but only if you can be absolutely sure that I'll interpret your raise as being an AA... also, keep in mind that you based all your analysis here on me having the crap 3488 that I had... If you're going to represent something like AA with that reraise, then maybe my initial raise ought to represent something stronger than 3488... suppose, for example, that I have KK23. That's something I might come back at you with preflop while you're still a slight dog, and is also the type of hand that I would likely be willing to go to war with on a flop w/ two high cards.

Even worse yet, if I have *any* A2, you're way behind.

For example, even A235 has you killed:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s Ac 3d 2h 174943 270906 110879 118215 9709 29787 195428 0.628
2s 3c 4d Ah 54569 110879 270906 118215 33889 5675 195428 0.372


Or a raggedy A2 like A26J rainbow:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Ac 6d 2h 185221 302146 174754 23100 7402 92379 127618 0.573
2s 3c 4d Ah 100971 174754 302146 23100 123679 3380 127618 0.427


A2 with a pair is a little worse:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Js Ac Jd 2h 206623 350106 134632 15262 0 40036 142805 0.637
2s 3c 4d Ah 83326 134632 350106 15262 130487 0 142805 0.363

Even a raggedy A3 that might not fold as easily on a high-card flop would have you in bad shape:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 500000 sampled boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Qs Ac 3d 8h 190403 305099 166592 28309 4071 155328 67754 0.552
2s 3c 4d Ah 124973 166592 305099 28309 186243 0 67754 0.448


Anyway, what I'm getting at is that A234 isn't a tremendously strong hand, and I think by raising you're (a) opening the door to being reraised by a hand that dominates you, and (b) sacrificing the strength of your position on the turn & river (since enough money will get in on the flop to commit both players when any action happens post-flop).

I'm not 100% sure about all this, but in light of this I'm starting to think that A234 is a monster in a ring-game because of the counterfeit protection, but sucks as far as A2's run in heads up play.

[emptyshell]

Well, yeah, if you had another A2 I'd be in trouble. But head up I always assume I have the only A2 and never worry about getting quartered when I have the nut low. I would have reraised with any A2 hand, actually, just because you were raising my BB so much. Do you think that's unreasonable?

If you have KK I'll be a slight dog. I'll take that chance. Of course I also reraised you with something like A49J unsuited which won for me when you folded on the flop (against your pocket Ks, I believe).

I'd prefer to take control of the hand, especially when I'm on the button. Make the other guy think twice about bluffing into me OOP on the flop. I don't have to tell you most head-up hands don't go to showdown. I wouldn't reraise with this hand in a full ring game.

[Wintermute]

Yeah, I would've played your hand the same way preflop, because too many hands raise the BB that can't stand later action, etc--I think there's more to be gained by taking the decisive lead in the hand like that than there is to be risked due to the relative weakness of A2 with 34 sidecards.

Also, this for sure depends more on the way the game has been going to that point--I was raising you a lot, you were coming over the top to defend it, and I wasn't respecting your reraises as a result.

But I'm wondering whether the impulse to reraise w/ A234 is the right one there, given the stack sizes. It's definitely food for thought, I don't see an obvious right answer for this one. And I'm now thinking I should be valuing pairs in the starting hand more than I have been in the past.

[mxyzptlk]

I'll attest to this. He couldnt stop talking about it at the gym.

[Wintermute]

What can I say, the hand was tits:

[Ironman]

Best thread of the week...don't remember much about the hand though...
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Dave

[Wintermute]

Ther's onlye one way to improvbe this thread. All you owe me another beer for the zOOm out:



godDAMN I would flatten her camel toe