The Ace & The King

[Rev. Good Will]

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From now on, I'll "flop it or drop it"

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I think god just killed a kitten

[sexdrugsmoney]

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From now on, I'll "flop it or drop it"

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I think god just killed a kitten

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This is incorrect?

[Dave G.]

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From now on, I'll "flop it or drop it"

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I think god just killed a kitten

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This is incorrect?

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Not only is it incorrect, it's also an awful sounding rhyme that I can see being written in a very poor quality weak-tight poker book. Your poetry needs work.

You should only be folding the flop if you don't have odds to continue to the turn. You can miss the flop and still stick around if the pot is laying you the correct odds.

[silkyslim]

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From now on, I'll "flop it or drop it"



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This is not what we are saying, and is wrong

[TomBrooks]

FLOP: Check and Fold to a bet. Do you see why?

[Joel_Fish]

I'm not sure, but how about this...

Villain is a rock, and cold calls the PF raise. His hand selection for such a scenario is probably under 10%, so we probably don't have an equity edge. Furthermore, rocks don't bluff that often, so if he bets the flop after we check, we can be pretty certain he's ahead.

On the other hand, if villain were loose, (say VPIP 30%+) we probably do have an equity edge, so a flop bet is for value. Assuming he's passive, we fold either to his flop raise or his turn bet.

Yes?

[TomBrooks]

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I'm not sure, but ow about this... Villain is a rock, and cold calls the PF raise. His hand selection for such a scenario is probably under 10%, so we probably don't have an equity edge. Furthermore, rocks don't bluff that often, so if he bets the flop after we check, we can be pretty certain he's ahead.
On the other hand, if villain were loose, (say VPIP 30%+) we probably do have an equity edge, so a flop bet is for value. Assuming he's passive, we fold either to his flop raise or his turn bet. Yes?

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Not what I had in mind. We might be behind to a pair here already. Then we have 6 outs at most. Overcards are typically discounted by 50%. That makes three outs. We have no straight or flush chances. This is not even close to being plus EV to call.

Betting out is almost a pure bluff. If you think you can steal this pot, bet. If not fold. Since MP CC'd preflop, he's probably not folding too easy. If he has any pair he's probably not folding. He doesn't think we raised with anything that connected on the board unless we have two hearts, so he's going to view any bets we make with skeptism.

Absent a read and generally speaking, betting this flop is -EV. Calling a bet is throwing money down the drain. If you think you can get MP to fold enough times, then it may be worth taking a shot with a bet. You will probably have to bet again on the turn. He might not fold the flop. Once you do that on the turn, if he doesn't fold and you don't improve, are you going to fire again on the river? This can get costly if you are behind.

After MP raised you on the flop, calling is just Spewing. This hand is over. Next.

PS: Saw later that MP is a Rock. If you try the flop bet, folding to a raise is now even more clear. Check/fold is probably still better than bet/fold. Eh, maybe it's worth one bet. Maybe bet/fold is OK. Maybe.

[bjarne]

Checking and calling is bad.
Reraise or fold the flop.
You don't have position so unless you're willing to try and take control by raising the flop you'd better fold.
By calling you're telling him that you didn't hit the flop but was just autobetting.

Another point (which I miss a lot in the hand discussions in general) is how Hero has been doing in the game up to the actual hand. While the read on the other players are important for your decisions their reads on YOU affect their decisions.

Suppose you have already folded many hands to raises erlier in the game. Whether these folds were correct or incorrect doesn't matter, your opponent only saw you fold many times
to raises earlier in the game. In this case he might very well be bluffing suspecting you are autbetting AK,AQ....


On the other hand, if you know that you have been playing, say, a lot of drawing hands or for some other reason been calling down a lot of hands to the river he's more likely just out to get as many chips as possible from you. He's not likely bluffing you since he has seen you call so many times before.

[sexypanda]

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FLOP: Check and Fold to a bet. Do you see why?

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