Monster draw ... is semi-bluffing possible?

[Chris Dow]

Preflop is kind of meh. When making that call preflop you need to either know you can bluff him off big hands (and have that be the plan) or know that he will never lay down his stupid KK (ie the plan is flop huge and win a big pot from the stubborn guy). I think he's more likely to be the type of player who won't fold (That's why he raises so much preflop). That being said I think the gameplan is simple.

Check. I don't think either of the other two players will bet. If they were willing to bet I would be very cautious vs them. So once you check he will bet the flop. If he underbets the pot (under 100) I would just call and play to make my hand (dear god please not the king of hearts) If he is going to bet the pot or overbet with like 200 I'm going ai right there.

[cero_z]

Hi fim,

[ QUOTE ]
your line screws him royally when MP or BB hold big hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

True, but they almost never will. Your line also has major problems: namely, the pf raiser will often just wait until the turn to shut you out. He doesn't even have to recognize the situation to do it; a call in position is very natural here.

I like an all-in c/r because the pf raiser will nearly always bet when checked to, and your hand is in fine shape against anything but 55 (trips is just 60% to beat you).

[cero_z]

Hi iceman,

[ QUOTE ]
If the raiser bets $150 and you check raise all in to $1000, isnt it very obvious you have a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, if you don't play your monsters like that. I do, so opponents who know me must give up some folding equity in a spot like this. If they're going to read a massive overbet for just a big draw every time, then I think I can call 40 pre-flop with any 2 cards, if I have a grand behind and can be pretty sure they are raising with a good hand.

[fimbulwinter]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi fim,

[ QUOTE ]
your line screws him royally when MP or BB hold big hands.


[/ QUOTE ]

True, but they almost never will. Your line also has major problems: namely, the pf raiser will often just wait until the turn to shut you out. He doesn't even have to recognize the situation to do it; a call in position is very natural here.

I like an all-in c/r because the pf raiser will nearly always bet when checked to, and your hand is in fine shape against anything but 55 (trips is just 60% to beat you).

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess i see making what is essentially a double pot sized checkraise all-in without any info with two players left to act is a little reckless. given the reads of the players in the blinds (tight and solid) i think you're very likely to be looking at two PP's from 22-TT here fishing for a set. that means that you're likely to see 55 a fair percentage of the time, and without betting through them on a paired board, i really don't want to commit 200BB's over a 20BB pot.

Also, a bet of say 1/2-2/3 pot effectively prices in your draw and gives you monster folding equity for your push (i know i hate raising a weak lead and getting 3bet). call or raise with my line, you're happy, unless you get a caller between which would be a disaster for yours.

fim

ps- consider this: if they both have PP's they have 1 instance of 22 and 6 instances of 55 as well as say one more instance of A2s. given 33-44,66-TT as ranges, you're looking at 8/60 =~13% of the time they have you slinging in 200BB's drawing stone cold dead. priced in throughout your line that's .13(-200)+(1-.13)(x) = 0 => 30BB defecit per instance you are not drawing dead you must overcome. they basically have to give you the pot every single time you push to make this move +EV...

fim

PS- you'd probably like to know my lines assuming he just calls and it's HU. a turn check is again a double winner: if he bets anything reasonable you push with good equity and titanic folding equity. if he checks, you get a free look at the river and can likely squeeze in nice value bets the times you do hit.

[Masquerade]

Its not a monster draw. You're drawing to the nut flush on a paired board. And forget the straight flush, it's a 1-outer.