Party 30/60: raised on the turn again

[DpR]

[ QUOTE ]
first off that guy's not tough he's a donk. he may have some natural skill but he's clearly not at all educated about how to play hold em. in short he's "trying to play well". problem is he has to make it up while he goes. it takes exactly one hand like the KTo to verify this.

secondly the TT guy is on crack as well. a Q and a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have. you check and fold the turn and it's not close.

his turn check is a donk check though.

[/ QUOTE ]

1010 should check fold the turn after gettign no resistance thus far? No way.

[mike l.]

"1010 should check fold the turn after gettign no resistance thus far? No way."

so the TT played it perfect? youll have to explain yourself. please pay attention to this part especially because it's the crux of my argument:

"a Q and[/or] a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have."

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
secondly the TT guy is on crack as well. a Q and a J are the two most likely cards for a typical mid limit preflop cold caller to have. you check and fold the turn and it's not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you give the KT-guy a reasonable range given the preflop CC and flop call, TT still has reasonable pot equity on the flop:

Board: Qc Jd 4s

Hand 1: 47.2577 % [ 00.47 00.00 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 52.7423 % [ 00.52 00.00 ] { 88-22, AJs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs-J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo-J9o, T9o }

and turn:

Board: Qc Jd 4s 3h

Hand 1: 45.4308 % [ 00.45 00.00 ] { TT }
Hand 2: 54.5692 % [ 00.55 00.00 ] { 88-22, AJs-ATs, KQs-K9s, QJs, JTs-J9s, T9s, AJo-ATo, KQo-K9o, QJo-QTo, JTo-J9o, T9o }

Clearly his hand is too good to check-fold so the question becomes bet-fold, bet-call or check-call.

bet-fold is ok except that a lot of the time the opponent may make this raise with a hands like 55 that wants to fold out over cards and take a free showdown if called

bet-call is so-so. if you call the turn raise you may be faced with another river bet that you should probably fold to.

check-call seems to work pretty well. the opponent is reasonably aggressive so he will probably bet a straight draw as a semi-bluff. additionally he will most likely value-bet/protect his hand vs something like AK if he has a small pair.


On the river it is close between betting out and check-calling. I like check-calling again because it gives the opponent a chance to bet busted straigh draws and he may mistakenly bet smaller PP for value.

[mike l.]

well there ya go then. so check call down with TT on a QJxxx board after they smooth call the flop? and the stats are 20/10/2 after 1000 hands. ok ill go give that a try. not.

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
well there ya go then. so check call down with TT on a QJxxx board after they smooth call the flop? and the stats are 20/10/2 after 1000 hands. ok ill go give that a try. not.

[/ QUOTE ]

What part of my orignial arguement do you find flawed?

TT still had a 45% pot equity given a fairly reasonable hand range for the CO.

Surely you dont advocated folding w/ 45% equity? do you think the preflop CC hand range is off?

[Justin A]

FWIW villain's line is my default line with AK.

[mike l.]

"do you think the preflop CC hand range is off?"

he's a lot more likely to have certain hands than he is to have other hands. also we need to examine the way the cold caller played the flop. it narrows his hand range down. it isnt that he cant have 22 there it's that he's much less likely to have that than say JT, QT, QJ, KJ, and other very popular broadway cold calling combinations. your calculations dont account for that, they just say that each hand has an equal chance of being out there (of course taking into account the combinations possible of each hand).

[RunningSixes]

[ QUOTE ]
it isnt that he cant have 22 there it's that he's much less likely to have that than say JT, QT, QJ, KJ, and other very popular broadway cold calling combinations. your calculations dont account for that, they just say that each hand has an equal chance of being out there

[/ QUOTE ]

i guess i just dont see a guy who is bad enough to CC an EP raise with KTo finding a fold with 22 in this spot.

On the turn the pot is 4.25 BB. If we assume he bets both streets when checked to we are getting 6.25:2 to call down. Which means we only have to have the best hand about 25% of the time to make a call down correct.

Even if you skew the hand range to make small pairs less likely, it still seems like your hand is too good to check-fold on the turn.

[DpR]

Whether the 101 played it perfect of not is of no issue. The point was that you suggested he should check fold the turn with 1010 to an opponent that has done nothing but cold call preflop and then call a flop bet.

I also don't necessarily agree that Q & J are the most likley holding for a cold caller. What hands are those? The only hand I MIGHT cold call there are QJs and JTs (the former much more likley then the latter). I much more often see pocket pairs in that scenario.

Regardless, even if I wouldn't cc with them, hands like A10s, Axs, K10s and any pair are all possible hends there, Im not just going to give the pot to him. I would be much more concered about a Q or J if a 16/9/2 type player limped UTG - then I am immediately thinking KQo.

All that said, I actually do not hate the way 1010 played it. While I would probably bet the turn, I can easily understand the 1010 being confused by the flop call. What hands only call that flop? Its tough to figure one. That said it would be tough to call down after a turn raise - which easily could be a move. If we assume the opponent will almost always bet when we check to him on the turn (which may or may not be the case) then we lose little.

At the end of the day I like betting or check/calling the turn way better than check folding.

[ike]

It is a nobrainer call. So is the 86s. Closing the action from the BB, or when the remaining players never limprr, nearly any, if not any, two suited cards can be called. When they're both over 6 its not close.