$11: Bubble -- Play to win and call or play for 3rd/4th and fold?

[Bigwig]

Why is everyone so worried about an A or pp? Did you notice the size of the pushing stack? He's probably as likely to be ahead with KQ as behind.

I call this.

[RobGW]

You are getting OVER 2:1 odds. This call is +$EV even if button flipped his PP or Ax over and showed it. Unless of course he happens to have QQ+ or AQ+. But given his situation he may be pushing a wide range here. KQ may even be ahead. And if you do lose you still have SOME FE. OTOH, if you fold the chips stacks become much more bunched up making it more of a crapshoot with the blinds this high. This is an easy call for me.

[wiggs73]

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Yeah, I didn't notice the size of the blind. I'd still fold if the table is playing loose though because losing two big blinds could hurt if you aren't going to be able to steal any without getting called. If the table is playing reasonably tight, I'd probably call and either end up with a good lead or still in good contention to make the money. The size of the blinds, along with the odds you're getting, does make this an interesting hand.

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Why would you be more inclined to call if the table is tight? Wouldn't you be less convinced that Button is pushing a random hand in this spot, even if it is an "any two" spot?

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Well, what I was talking about here (and I didn't specify it well at all) was the other 2 players. If they are playing tight and not defending their blinds, then I could stand a loss better, because I could probably steal their blinds and recover from it easier. Conversly, if they have huge calling ranges, I might be more inclined to keep my chips and let them bust each other out.

Obviously, if the pusher is tight, I'll be less inclined to call, as I'm likely beat. However, if he knows how to play these and is pushing any 2 then yes, you should call. Also, absent of any reads, I'd call this.

I should have thought all this out and made it clear in my other posts. Basically it's a call unless you know pusher to be tight and the other 2 have large calling ranges. In that case I fold. Otherwise, you're probably fine to call.

[pokerlaw]

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Why is everyone so worried about an A or pp? Did you notice the size of the pushing stack? He's probably as likely to be ahead with KQ as behind.

I call this.

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yeah. the pushing stack, due to blinds, will be pushing a lot worse hands than KQ. I would prob push any king in his shoes.

oh yeah, you still have 2100 if you lose, which is nice.

[Nottom]

You can fold if you don't like money.

[Slim Pickens]

I can't make myself not call this, but I felt the same about raptor's AQ hand and that was a clear fold by ICM. It's the blind size...

OK, looking at the ICM, the slope of the EV vs. calling range line is fairly small, but not so much you can ignore the pushing range of your opponent. Honestly, I never put someone on as tight a range as 77+, A9+, which is what it takes to make ICM say to fold. To fold this, you'd need a compelling reson to think BTN is extremely tight.

SlimP

[lastchance]

Is Villain tight?

Still, I can't see how I lay this down.