To vaule bet jacks or not to vaule bet jacks. - Page 4

redrooski24 · #31 06-22-2005, 04:49 PM

Going off the original question a little bit, but what if you bet the turn and get raised by MP1 or any of the others? What if MP1 raises and MP2 cold calls? Sorry for the semi hijack but this kind of hand is always one I have some trouble with in my limit learning.

SeaEagle · #32 06-22-2005, 05:15 PM

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Hero 3-bet PF, lead the flop and lead the turn. We UNQUESTIONABLY have some fold equity here.

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Just nitpicking, but I don't see any fold equity. What hand beats JJ that will fold here?

As for the actual hand, you are absolutely correct:
1) No one is bluffing/bluffraising at this pot.
2) The 9 didn't complete any draw so no one is raising this pot (they would have raised the turn).
3) It's very unlikely that any hand you're beating will bet at this hand if you check.
4) Virtually any hand that is beating you is going to bet if it's checked to them.
5) You can't fold for a single bet, so if you're beat it's still going to cost you a bet to see the SD.
6) There are at least some hands that you're beating that will call you.

It really doesn't matter if you're losing or not. You may as well bet out - you lose the same if you're beat, but you win bets if you are winning and get called.

SeaEagle · #33 06-22-2005, 05:19 PM

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what if you bet the turn and get raised by MP1 or any of the others? What if MP1 raises and MP2 cold calls?

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If anyone raises the turn after 4 people called the flop, you have 2 outs or less and don't have the odds to draw.

redrooski24 · #34 06-22-2005, 05:31 PM

So with any raise on the turn you give credit for Qx? If UTG+2 raises and its folded to you is it also an easy fold, barring any solid reads?

SeaEagle · #35 06-22-2005, 05:58 PM

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So with any raise on the turn you give credit for Qx?

[/ QUOTE ] I give a raise credit for any of [Qx, 44, 55, 77, KK, AA, 86, 63] (just added the last 2 for completeness).

Everybody had to put in 3 bets PF. Everybody called a bet on the flop. I would have to have a serious maniac read before I'm calling down a raise, including one from UTG+2. You're going to be putting in 2 bets to win 12-15. You don't have the odds.

The only situation I might consider calling is if I bet, 2 folds, MP2 raises. Even then, I'd need an agro read.

SeaEagle · #36 06-22-2005, 06:01 PM

Addendum, just to be clear here. If UTG+2 raises the turn, he's raising into 3 people. He doesn't know they'll fold. If it comes back to me with 2 folded out, that has no bearing on UTG's reason for raising. A normal UTG is never bluff-raising (or raising light) in this situation.

mister · #37 06-22-2005, 06:07 PM

I think I like the value bet. For every time you're up against a weak queen or a set/2 pair, I think more often you'll take the pot from a weaker hand

redrooski24 · #38 06-22-2005, 06:16 PM

Thanks for explaining that one for me. As you can tell I have a tough time laying down big PPs to overs that come on the turn after there has been no real aggression on the flop, especially one so coordinated like this.

Jaskohouston · #39 06-22-2005, 06:47 PM

I guess what I am thinking here is with that ragged flop, someone hung in with overcards for one small bet, whether it be KQ, Q10, etc. You know how it can get on these tables, three people call in front of someone, of course they are going to call - the "pot is too big to fold".

Then they hit their card. They would have folded for a big bet if they hadn't, but they did. Now they are either calling waiting to raise, or they don't like their kicker with their queen and they are content to call down.

I bet out because of the overall strength of your hand, and yeah, there's a chance there's no queen out there. The only thing checking here and waiting for someone to bet does is let you know exactly who has the queen, at which point I guess you could fold.

SeaEagle · #40 06-22-2005, 08:25 PM

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As you can tell I have a tough time laying down big PPs to overs that come on the turn after there has been no real aggression on the flop, especially one so coordinated like this.

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The most important factor in this hand isn't that an overcard came on the turn. The most important factor is that there are 4 people in - and that all 4 people had enough to call 3-bets PF and another on the flop (and that nobody raised the flop).

Even though this flop is coordinated, it's really, really unlikely that anyone is raising the turn on a draw (or a 7) into 3 people who don't show any sign of folding.

If this were heads up, I'd call it down almost everytime.