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#11
06-14-2005, 10:17 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] but jeff, how many times do you think a guy with those stats checkraises that river WITHOUT the straight here? [/ QUOTE ] I agree that the river call is a mistake. I was just discussing the other aspects of your post. [/ QUOTE ] i think you are talking about me calling the .56 guy passive. he's probably not as passive as i made him out to be. but there's also different catagories of betting/raising that fall under his umbrella...a river checkraise without a monster is way out of line for these type of players. similarly, getting 3 bet at any point in time by this guy is a huge downer. these are things that although he does his share of betting because he plays so many damn hands, just hang his hand like a sign on his neck. now if you move up his AF to 1 or 1.5 and then he becomes so damn agro. basically as VPIP increases, it decreases the sensitivity of the AF to change on the margin. so large VPIPs have a relatively inelastic AF b/c it now takes so many more hands to change it. -Barron 
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#12
06-14-2005, 10:19 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
jeff, how many times do you think a guy with those stats checkraises that river WITHOUT the straight here? [/ QUOTE ] There's definitely a good chance he does, but given the way the hand played out you don't think a c/r with 2 pair is in order? I'd c/r here with 2 pair just about any time I could count on a bet from my opponent. With Axxxx, and an opponent who raised preflop, a reasonable read would be a pair of aces and good kicker or an overpair. It's unlikely the preflop raiser has 2 pair on this board or a 4. [Plus, with the possible straight out there it makes the risk of getting 3-bet very unlikely, which makes the c/r with 2 pair MORE likely] Yes, it sure looks like a straight, but I still think he's got less than that more than one time in ten.
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#13
06-14-2005, 10:20 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] jeff, how many times do you think a guy with those stats checkraises that river WITHOUT the straight here? [/ QUOTE ] There's definitely a good chance he does, but given the way the hand played out you don't think a c/r with 2 pair is in order? I'd c/r here with 2 pair just about any time I could count on a bet from my opponent. With Axxxx, and an opponent who raised preflop, a reasonable read would be a pair of aces and good kicker or an overpair. It's unlikely the preflop raiser has 2 pair on this board or a 4. [Plus, with the possible straight out there it makes the risk of getting 3-bet very unlikely, which makes the c/r with 2 pair MORE likely] Yes, it sure looks like a straight, but I still think he's got less than that more than one time in ten. [/ QUOTE ] since when does a guy who plays over 50% of his hands think like you? -Barron
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#14
06-14-2005, 10:22 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
Hi,
Although you may probably be beaten you should call IMO. Not only for the pot odds, but if you don't call, a good thinking, aggressive player will take advantage of this in future hands and will river-cr you with less than winning hands, which will cost you much more than the, maybe small -EV call you make in this hand. Regards, Vulture
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#15
06-14-2005, 10:49 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
Although you may probably be beaten you should call IMO. Not only for the pot odds, but if you don't call, a good thinking, aggressive player will take advantage of this in future hands and will river-cr you with less than winning hands, which will cost you much more than the, maybe small -EV call you make in this hand. [/ QUOTE ] A good thinking player will realize that hero was check-raised by a guy who never checkraises, and reacted accordingly. Using the "I don't want to look like someone who can get pushed off his hands" excuse to make a call here is leaky thinking. It's a clear fold.
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#16
06-14-2005, 10:51 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Although you may probably be beaten you should call IMO. Not only for the pot odds, but if you don't call, a good thinking, aggressive player will take advantage of this in future hands and will river-cr you with less than winning hands, which will cost you much more than the, maybe small -EV call you make in this hand. [/ QUOTE ] A good thinking player will realize that hero was check-raised by a guy who never checkraises, and reacted accordingly. Using the "I don't want to look like someone who can get pushed off his hands" excuse to make a call here is leaky thinking. It's a clear fold. [/ QUOTE ] DINGGGGGGGGGGGG, thanks gonores, -Barron
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