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#1
06-14-2005, 09:49 AM
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Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
CO/Button are tight and my pfr is likely to clear them out.
SB is 54/2/.6 over 60 hands. Is Top/Bottom pair strong enough to call the checkraise? If not, how strong of a hand do I need? Party 20/40 (10 handed) Preflop: Jeff is MP3 with 2c, Ac. 5 folds, Jeff raises, 2 folds, SB calls, BB calls. Flop: (6 SB) 7d, 2s, 5c (3 players) SB checks, BB checks, Jeff bets, SB calls, BB calls. Turn: (4.50 BB) Ah (3 players) SB checks, BB checks, Jeff bets, SB calls, BB folds. River: (6.50 BB) 3c (2 players) SB checks, Jeff bets, SB raises, Jeff ? 
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#5
06-14-2005, 09:59 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
Getting 9.5:1 this is an easy call against all but the most passive opponents. [/ QUOTE ] did you see this guys AF. its .56, that is a VERY passive opponent. this opponents TOTAL bets PLUS raises average out to only about 1/2 of the # of calls this opponent makes. this villian has the straight here almost every single time. i fold easily here. -Barron
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#6
06-14-2005, 10:02 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
did you see this guys AF. its .56, that is a VERY passive opponent. this opponents TOTAL bets PLUS raises average out to only about 1/2 of the # of calls this opponent makes. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, but I think that given that VPIP, he is closer to typical aggression. His average hand is going to be very weak relative to a tighter player, so it is no surprise that he is calling much more often than he is betting/raising.
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#7
06-14-2005, 10:03 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
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#8
06-14-2005, 10:03 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
You don't think there's better than one chance in ten that the guy has just 2 pair or is making some kind of misguided move here? [/ QUOTE ] no. no i dont. but like i said, i take that chance when i have a set because he COULD be raising two pair but i know im losing almost every time i do call witht he set...two pair is instafold vs. a 56/x/.56...i mean, think about all the hands this guy plays, and how often he calls ...a checkraise on the river from him is a stamp that says " I HAVE WHATEVER IT IS THATS THE BEST HAND RIGHT NOW" as for the 1 in 10 thing, not even close. he has the straight damn near every single time...give me 25:1 on that river call and its a bit closer, but still probably a fold, but i'd call there probably b/c i try not to make laydowns in big pots, but i wouldn't be happy with the call. -Barron
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#9
06-14-2005, 10:08 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
VPIP and AF relationship. [/ QUOTE ] james and i have discussed this ad naseum. yes, they do have a relationship. and yes he's calling a lot due to his looseness, and is still agressive at times...he needs to be just out of sheer hand volume to keep it at .56...and a guy with stats like 56/8/1.5 is DAMN agressive. but jeff, how many times do you think a guy with those stats checkraises that river WITHOUT the straight here? -Barron
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#10
06-14-2005, 10:10 AM
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Re: Party 20/40: Passive river check/raise.
[ QUOTE ]
but jeff, how many times do you think a guy with those stats checkraises that river WITHOUT the straight here? [/ QUOTE ] I agree that the river call is a mistake. I was just discussing the other aspects of your post.
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