Tough flop decision

[Sam T.]

You mentioned three decision points, so:

-Pre-flop, I'm inclined to push. His range is tremendously wide, and you're ahead of the vast majority of hands. Unless he's on AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ, even if he calls you're not in bad shape. Anything less than this he probably folds, and you add 2k to your stack. I also don't like the flat call precisely because of his wide range. Even if you hit top pair, there is no guarantee he didn't hit harder. No reason he can't have J8 here. You're giving him a free flop when you're ahead.

-Flop: Almost any bet you make is going to look like a steal, so I think you have to ask yourself what your plan is if he pushes. (I don't think this far ahead, but know I should.) If you are going to call here, I think you probably should have pushed the flop. That looks like you are making a play as well, but it would still be a tough bet for him to call unless the flop hit him pretty hard. I could, however, be convicned that pushing is a bit much.

-Another option here might be check-raise/call an all-in. It's risky against a drawlicious board, but worth thinking about.

-As for the final call...I make it, but I'm not very bright. Since he puts you on any two, his push is not a bad play - a lot of the time you probably have to fold. As it happens, you have a hand, and I believe you're ahead enough of the time to make this call.

[TexTiger]

[ QUOTE ]
All he did is make a standard blind steal preflop and then push the flop when I made a standard donkbet. I don't see how you can give him credit for such a big hand so easily. Wouldn't he be more inclined to flatcall with KK or JJJ since it's so hard for me to call this push?

[/ QUOTE ]

You mentioned your opponent is a solid/thinking player, hence he probably knows you are too. His PF play may have been a standard steal, but it could easily be JJ as well. You could put him on JJJ easily with his move as a thinking player wanting to cut the odds down for you on your straight/flush draws you might have with him having what he thinks is the best hand. Against a weaker player, he might not make this move, as so eloquently stated in TOP, "Just as you can't put a weak player on a hand, you can't put them on a thought either."

TT

[durron597]

Thanks for actually addressing both the preflop decision and the first post flop decision, I thought both of those were very interesting too.

Preflop - he might put me on a bluff here and spite call. Might. I decided not to take the risk of him calling with a medium ace, and thought there was a chance of me taking the pot away from him on the flop. I do like pushing here though, I think this is a choice between two correct plays.

First flop decision - In retrospect I think betting 2400 here is basically me saying "I am trying to trap you by donkbetting" and taking advantage of my loose image to stack him. What I am afraid of is the flat call - I expect him to think that I will bluff off the rest of my chips if he has a strong hand, thus the reraise is not as strong a move as a call. Calling is the new raising.

When he does push, I agree with your analysis completely.

[AlcateL]

Fair point, not sure if my head is screwed on, and I see your point about it being a good flop to make a move on because you SHOULDN'T call with KQ here in theory, but there is a reason for that. If you assume he has some kind of hand he's almost always ahead of you here, i think ist a fold.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
If you assume he has some kind of hand he's almost always ahead of you here, i think ist a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, what an assumption to make.

Define some kind of hand. He probably has at least one pair, but is it better than TP2K?

[A_PLUS]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you think I am way ahead 50% of the time and way behind 50% of the time then isn't this an easy call getting 2.5:1?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think so yes, but my range was pretty wide, and the fact that this is a satelite (increasing the EV of survival) makes it a much tougher call.

[adanthar]

In this situation, I would push all in PF and expect him to fold the vast majority of time, including some hands I lose to.

Having called, I'm gonna checkraise this because in a sat close to the bubble I don't really want any sort of draw to push and you just know he will...oh well, you still have a call here.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Having called, I'm gonna checkraise this because in a sat close to the bubble I don't really want any sort of draw to push and you just know he will...oh well, you still have a call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check and he pushes outright, what's your action? If he checks behind and the turn is a card like the 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] what do you do?

[locutus2002]

I think its a fold.

I think its unlikely that villain is making this move with air, as hero has called from SB, and leads out.

I count about 35 hands in which your in trouble (AQ-8, AA-6, KK-3, 9T-16, JJ-2) and about 15 hands where your about even like JTc (45% dog). This puts you overall about 25% in the hand and you need to get 3:1 in the pot to make it a CEV call. Its probably CEV--, but even if he could make this move with a more speculative hand, and it were CEV++, I would not make the call because your condition is still good if you fold with 25XBB, and the tournament has the most flat payout structure.

[locutus2002]

Preflop: I don't like a push. 27XBB is too much of an overbet. I might be inclined to call pairs down to 9, and aj++ if I were villain, especially if hero is capable of putting a move on.
I wouldn't pop him back because 4XBB looks like alot for a steal, and any raise is going to leave villain pot committed ATF. I call.

ATF: I like your T2400 bet: solid, and for information. If you check I think villain can push with a much wider range of hands. I doubt villain is calling here, its either push or fold: he either has a hand and doesn't want a draw, or has a draw and doesn't want to make another decision at the turn.