Tough flop decision

durron597 · #1 06-10-2005, 09:46 AM

Stars WSOP round 1 400 FPP satellite. I definitely had an image where my flop bet could be percieved as an attempt to just take the pot down. I also was certain that my opponent was capable of making a move on me - and that he had a brain on his head because he raised UTG+1 a few hands ago and folded to two allins - says he had AT. Comments on all three decision points appreciated, note that I am getting 2.5:1 to call his push.

Note that my stack is *not* large enough to fold into a seat (9 seats, something like twentyish players left). My current stacksize is a low final table stack size.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (7 handed) converter

Hero (t14455)
BB (t12155)
UTG (t11450)
MP1 (t5010)
MP2 (t8785)
CO (t1425)
Button (t10933)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
4 folds, Button raises to t1600, Hero calls t1400, 1 fold.

Flop: (t3150) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t2400, Button raises to t9308,

CitricAcid13 · #2 06-10-2005, 10:03 AM

In this situation, I would give him credit for KK or AA. Either would be a tough situation to dig yourself out of (especially KK giving you no outs). At this point in the game, it's a pot that's tough to throw away but worth it if you respect his knowledge and play.

BulldogMafia · #3 06-10-2005, 10:12 AM

The more I think about this hand the more I feel inclined to fold it. He flat called your 6x BB raise and then re-raised you all in. I don’t believe he is making a move but actually hit his hand. I put him on trip jacks or AQo or possibly KK. Fold it and live to see another flop….call it and it is a coin flip.

A_PLUS · #4 06-10-2005, 10:34 AM

I figured you needed at least one response without a glaring innacuracy. This is a tough spot. There are a few more hands that you are ahead of now, that a thinking player will make this play with, than there are that you are behind.

Tough spot, but I think it's time to take your medicine.

durron597 · #5 06-10-2005, 10:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He flat called your 6x BB raise

[/ QUOTE ]

He raised my bet. There was no calling involved.

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and then re-raised you all in. I don’t believe he is making a move but actually hit his hand.

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Think about the range of hands that I could have to bet the flop, being aggro myself, and then think about the range of hands that I *should* call with here (KQ is probably not in that range). Thus this is a great spot to bluff by a thinking, aggressive opponent.

[ QUOTE ]
I would I put him on trip jacks or AQo or possibly KK. Fold it and live to see another flop….

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All he did is make a standard blind steal preflop and then push the flop when I made a standard donkbet. I don't see how you can give him credit for such a big hand so easily. Wouldn't he be more inclined to flatcall with KK or JJJ since it's so hard for me to call this push?

[ QUOTE ]
call it and it is a coin flip.

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This couldn't be more wrong. I'm either way ahead or way behind, which means 50/50 is precisely what it can't be.

A_PLUS · #6 06-10-2005, 10:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
This couldn't be more wrong. I'm either way ahead or way behind, which means 50/50 is precisely what it can't be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course you are right, but the funny thing is, against the range I gave your opponent, your equity was almost exactly 50%. So the realization will be, way ahead / way behind, but against my range, you are a probabilistic coin flip. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

durron597 · #7 06-10-2005, 11:16 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Of course you are right, but the funny thing is, against the range I gave your opponent, your equity was almost exactly 50%. So the realization will be, way ahead / way behind, but against my range, you are a probabilistic coin flip. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Well, if you think I am way ahead 50% of the time and way behind 50% of the time then isn't this an easy call getting 2.5:1?

AlcateL · #8 06-10-2005, 11:36 AM

very very very difficult, at first I was thinking "how can you fold this here." Then thinking about it more I'd be more inclined too.
What hand does he do this with that you beat?
The only hand I believe he does that is QT and would he raise this much p/f, I don't know, you should though. A flush draw? Maybe but I doubt it.

Its very unlikely he has something like JT and more likely he has JQ, a set or an overpair.

This is no way clear cut but I think its a fold at the end of the day.

Edit: You fold this and you stlil have plenty of chips left to make a good attempt at the final table

durron597 · #9 06-10-2005, 11:40 AM

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The only hand I believe he does that is QT and would he raise this much p/f,

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I could see him checking to make sure he was dealt two cards before making the preflop raise. But that's about it.

freemont · #10 06-10-2005, 11:54 AM

Call, right away. You are probably ahead far more than 50% of the time in this situation. If Harrington says he gives 10% bluff chance as a minimum in every situation, this one has to be like a 20-30 percenter (I make up new words too!) Not to mention he would likely make the same play with second pair, a flush draw, straight draw, possibly a gutshot or 3rd button, underpair, etc... Also if you lose it isn't like you're dead, you still have 10BBs left.