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#81
06-09-2005, 06:31 AM
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Re: Pure Tin Foil Hat Stuff - U wuz warned
I have been at B&M poker rooms where I have seen hands which were "rigged" like this!
I've seen AA vs KK vs JJ at B&M and the guy with A2s picks up the pot on the river. happens all the time. 
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#82
06-09-2005, 06:51 AM
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Re: Pure Tin Foil Hat Stuff - U wuz warned
[ QUOTE ]
My wife and I have often had discussions as to wether the cards on poker sites are rigged. I dont know if this has been touched on by other people, but why would poker sites who are raking in millions of dollars from rake going to risk their reputation by rigging hands. Its a lose lose situation for them. [/ QUOTE ] If it was rigged they would have done it from the start when they were not making millions of dollars, and maybe theyre only making millions now because of the rig. I could tell you ways to rig a deal where it would be virtually impossible to prove, be fairly simple to accomplish, be very beneficial to the site, and wouldnt really hurt the pros. I obviously wont. For the people burning to ask me why i dont just prove a site is rigged, think about it youll figure it out. As for fishon what exactly are you trying to accomplish? The sites are probably not rigged, Yes they could be, no poster has proved they are not rigged. people who think they are definatly not rigged are just as irrational as those who do. You cant convince someone who thinks a site is rigged that its not same goes for someone who thinks a site cannot be rigged for whatever dumb reason. I think that covers everything now when a post like this comes up we can just ignore them? Think of the person who would not play online because of posts like these theyd have to be pretty stupid right?
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#83
06-09-2005, 07:09 AM
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Re: Old Meat and Potatos
[ QUOTE ]
A further test, known as a confidence interval (this required a trip to the library and a slightly painful reaquaintence with statistical methodology) yields the following: There is at least a 95% chance these data did not come from a source where the favorites are hitting at 75.2%, the expected percentage. [/ QUOTE ] How was your sample of 419 hands obtained? If it was 419 hands which occurred AFTER you decided to conduct the experiment then read no further. If, however, it was largely hands which had occurred BEFORE you decided to make the calculations then your conclusions are suspect due to observer bias. Put simply, one of the main categories of individuals likely to be motivated to conduct such an investigation are are those who have had a bad run of cards - and hence whose databases are going to contain a higher proportion of "suckouts" vs them that the statistical norm. I'd be genuinely interested in the results of some research such as that you're doing IF the source of the data were such that observer bias were removed from it. There's nothing wrong with the data coming from people who all believe poker sites are rigged (or who believe the opposite) provided the data is collected AFTER their opinions have been expressed, rather than being the data on which their beliefs are based (commonsense and Bayes Theorem both tell us this). I've done calculations of a similar kind to yours myself - though with an entirely different objective. Specifically, I'd look at all hands on which I'd gone all-in vs a single opponent in a session (pre-river) and calculate what my total equity in all those pots was as opposed to what i ended up actually winning across all those pots. The ratio of equity:earnings would then reflect on how lucky/unlucky I was running that day rather than leading me to believe the site may be rigged. It was just an exercise I did when I was learning to play at the end of last year - and was actually an adjunct to my main focus then (was I get my money in while I had the best of it - or at least while my pot equity justified the cost of my bet). It did occur to me then, that comparing equity on pre-river all-ins to the actual results would over the long-term be a good measure of the reliability of the randomness of a poker site. Why restrict your research to just dominated hands? The easiest way to get a large sample would be to collect all pre-river all-ins then work out the equity for all of them along with the actual result.
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#85
06-09-2005, 09:41 AM
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Re: Pure Tin Foil Hat Stuff - U wuz warned
TV poker is rigged.
Danny hit runner runner Jacks to bust Men the Master and runner runner 7's to bust out the contactor along with many miracle suckouts.
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#86
06-09-2005, 12:53 PM
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Re: Pure Tin Foil Hat Stuff - U wuz warned
[ QUOTE ]
If it was rigged they would have done it from the start when they were not making millions of dollars, and maybe theyre only making millions now because of the rig. [/ QUOTE ] Do you understand the concept of "rake" and how much online poker sites actually take in? Why rig anything to gain a small percentage of what they can make legit?
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#87
06-09-2005, 03:50 PM
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Re: Old Meat and Potatos
Wow, what a post. So many words, so many misconceptions.
You flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads. Repeat. This time you get 9 heads. Repeat. This time 8. Your conclusion? You wanna bet tails next flip? Take a real college level stat course and get back to me, OK? Really, I care. Really.
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#88
06-09-2005, 04:02 PM
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Re: Old Meat and Potatos
I was just on the communicater with Scotty begging to be beamed up due to a lack of intelligent life on this rock and then I read your post. Thank you.
"I'd be genuinely interested in the results of some research such as that you're doing IF the source of the data were such that observer bias were removed from it. " I like to think my original data was bais-free. The problem in collecting it is that in the heat of SNG play I miss some hands when I'm folded. Winning the SNG is job 1, data recording is 2. "It did occur to me then, that comparing equity on pre-river all-ins to the actual results would over the long-term be a good measure of the reliability of the randomness of a poker site." Just so. It's much better than my first effort and ever so much more time consuming. Any future reaserch is wasted if not using this methodology. "Why restrict your research to just dominated hands? The easiest way to get a large sample would be to collect all pre-river all-ins then work out the equity for all of them along with the actual result. " I was trying to avoiding the time of running every hand through twodimes.com or PokerProbe. Just my lazy nature and a reflection of the wages I was being paid for the job [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].
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#89
06-09-2005, 04:13 PM
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Much bigger issue
" Let's get some real data to debate. I'm all for it. I don't think it can be done, but if it can, let's see it."
WHat's someone else's data worth to you? Nothing. You can't use it because it has no trustworthy provinance. You must do it youlself, maybe you might trust Mom to do it. What could you do with conclusice evidence of a buggered deal at a major site? Not much. You might change your own behavior but after that there really is no profitable use for the information. Really, I've spent some time on this and every idea I come up with is either life theatening or nonproductive. Got an idea? Please post it.
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#90
06-09-2005, 04:14 PM
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Re: Old Meat and Potatos
[ QUOTE ]
Wow, what a post. So many words, so many misconceptions. You flip a coin 10 times and get 8 heads. Repeat. This time you get 9 heads. Repeat. This time 8. Your conclusion? You wanna bet tails next flip? Take a real college level stat course and get back to me, OK? Really, I care. Really. [/ QUOTE ] holy crap you entirely missed the point of his post.
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