Raise with TP nut low draw?

[Buzz]

Bodie - I didn't like either the first round raise or the second round raise, but for different reasons. Rightly or wrongly, I disliked the second round raise more than I disliked the first round raise.

He does have a very nice starting hand, plus two callers (and possibly both blinds) are trapped for the first round raise, plus he either gains position by having the players behind him fold or he gets them to put a double bet in the pot. If he doesn't alert his opponents as to his holding... well, he does have a very nice starting hand. Although I probably would not raise here, aside from the possibility of alerting his opponents as to his hand, it's hard to find much fault in Gooper's first round raise.

But alas, he does not get an ideal flop. Far from it.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know that it would be "criminal"

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OK so maybe I exaggerated a little [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
if you're counting possible trips or two pair as a reason to call, then that's the sort of dreaming I'm trying *not* to do in O8

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I agree they provide only a little PE, however If I can catch a 7 and get HU I can jam. I called on the power of my nut low draw and the trips / two pair options were icing on the cake (albeit only a small amount of icing).

[GooperMC]

Buzz thanks for the response, I guess that I was overvaluing my TP here. I was hoping to get HU with the original raiser so that I wasn't drawing so thin on the top 1/2 which I guess was too much to ask.

[ QUOTE ]
To initiate fresh money into the pot, considering the strong possibility of getting quartered or sixthed for low, I think you need at least four opponents who will call your raise. All you have here is four opponents. If everyone calls your raise, it was fine to raise, but if anyone folds to your raise, it's your loss if you make your draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
I guess my mistake was that I was hoping to get HU so that my hand wasn't a drawing hand. You are right as a result I just pushed players out that would have financed my low draw.

[Phat Mack]

[ QUOTE ]
Flop:
Nobody likes this raise? I don’t think that my A is going to hold up unless I can get a bunch of people out of this pot. Am I overvaluing TP here? I just feel like a call resigns my hand to be a low draw only.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll be the lone dissenter here. I like this raise in many situations. You don't give the size of the stakes, but in bigger games this play may have merit. Your reasoning about getting players out is correct. Many low draws will be dinked on the flop, and raising may get you alone in the pot with some flush draws, so basically you are drawing to no heart. Also, getting your deuce or trey dinked will give you 2-pair while promoting your 7 to an emergency low, a situation that may give you room to play. Unfortunately, a heart comes right off and you're toast.

[GooperMC]

I guess that it really comes down to how much PE for the top half do you think I get by raising (not counting the free card play I can pull off if I want)

Lets do a little math. The pot is 11SB with me to act with 4 players
left to act behind me.

If I raise and get 2 callers, everyone calls the turn, and 1 player
calls the river the final pot will be 13BB and I will have put in 3BB.

Lets say I call (instead of raise) and get 1 more caller on the flop
and 1 more callers on the turn then the final pot will be the same but
I will have put in 2.5BB.

Probabilities:
- 75%ish of the time there will be a low so value of the low half will be 13 / 2 *.75 = 4.9.
- The value of the top 1/2 will be 13 / 2 * .75 + 13 * .25 = 8.1.
- If there is a low out I will have it 2:3 and 1:3 I will not.

For the raise let R be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 3 = 8.1R + .25

For the call let C be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 2.5 = 8.1C +.75

That means if 8.1R + .25 = 8.1C + .75 then I will break even with my raise. That will happened whenever 8.1(R – C) = .5 or R – C = .0617

If I have done everything right that a raise would have to win my chance of winning the high by 6% for the raise to be +EV. (It also means that I have a job that allows me to do these calculations instead of doing real work but that a topic for another post).

Does pushing that 1 player out of the pot give me 6% more PE? Add in the fact that a raise puts me in control of the hand, give me the opportunity to get a free card on the turn, gives me good info on what my opponents are playing, and may push more the 1 players out of the pot and I think that the raise is a play that I will continue to make.

[Matt Walker]

I like the raise on the flop. In addition to likely getting you heads up with scoop potential there is a good chance this guy will check the turn to you if he doesn't improve in which case you can take a free card if you need it and bet if you don't.

[Buzz]

Gooper - Four opponents have seen the flop with you. Some of them may have heart draws. Someone might have a set or top two pair. Someone might have a wrap-around straight draw (QJTX). Someone might have a 23XX low draw (the same as you). Someone might have a 24XX low draw and might be thinking the ace on the flop negated your possible A2XX or A3XX low draw. Some might have none of these. Hard to say.

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Check, check, player to my right (villain) bets, I raise, SB folds, BB calls, fold, fold, villain calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess that should read
check, check, check,
rather than just
check, check.

If so, everybody but the villain has checked to you and the villain. Making it a double bet is very likely to knock out all or at least some of them. Is that what you really want to do? (Depending on who the villain is, maybe it is). But against unknown players, or against a villain who plays reasonably well, I'm not sure that's what I'd want to do. You do have position, the nut low draw, and top pair. But you have already raised on the first betting round - and now the villain is betting right into you.

This is not a no-limit Texas hold 'em macho chicken contest and the villain is not Gus Hansen who is reading everyone to fold. A decent Omaha-8 player probably has some kind of fit with that flop. A decent Omaha-8 player with only the nut heart draw realizes you may raise again, and doesn't really want you to knock out everybody in front so as to end up playing this one-on-one out of position against you.

But the villain has bet right straight into you.

Did the villain expect and hope that you'd raise? Did the villain count on you to raise? Did the villain not care much one way or the other? Is the villain an idiot who thinks he's playing Texas hold 'em and he going to blow everyone away with his bet?

I don't know the answer, but I'd show the villain some respect. Could be the villain doesn't deserve my respect, and if you're very sure of that, and if you're reasonably sure a raise will isolate you against a villain who is blowing steam here, then raise. But if you don't know if the villain deserves your respect or not, and if you're not sure the raise will isolate you against the villain, then you don't lose much, if anything, by showing the villain some respect and simply calling.

Let's temporarily go to the other extreme and assume nobody folds to your raise. In other words, for every chip you put in the pot, each of your four opponents matches that chip. In that case, you're getting
• 4 to 1 odds for the whole pot and
• 1.5 to 1 odds for half the pot.
Let's just look at this betting round and the turn only. Figure and four scoops for you, winning you the whole pot. Figure any six, seven, or eight makes you the nut low. Let's not count aces one way or the other (although in truth your seven kicker stinks reekingly here). Let's figure the other 28 cards lose this bet for you. (But you'll have a chance tomorrow to buy another lottery ticket).

4/43 scoop
11/43 make you the nut low
28/43 lose

Okay?

4/43*4 = +0.37
11/43*1.5 = +0.38
28/43*1 = -0.65

Okay? Maybe this looks like a good bet to you.

But we haven't considered the possibility of your getting quartered or (heaven forbid) sixthed or eighthed. It's hard to say here exactly what the chance is of running into an opponent (or opponents) who also has 23XX. Twenty per cent, honestly, is a conservative estimate. (Forty per cent, the approximate chance of encountering another ace-deuce when you have ace-deuce yourself, is not unreasonable). But let's use 20%. That's giving the raise the benefit of the doubt.

4/43*4*0.80 = +0.30
11/43*1.5*0.80 = +0.31
28/43*1 = -0.65

So we're coming up a bit short here. You stand to lose more by initiating fresh money into the pot than you stand to gain.

And that's giving the raise all the benefit of the doubt. We let everybody call the raise, we only have you splitting for low 20%, and we're not counting the sixths and eighths as any less than the quarters.

We looked at the 2nd betting round raise from the standpoint of your opponents, and also from the standpoint of your odds. From both of these perspectives, a raise here, in my humble opinion is not an absolutely horrid play - but neither is it a very good one.

Buzz

One more thing. Holding
A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], when the flop is A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], you have done better than flopping top pair; you have flopped top and bottom pair. I would not consider this a good flop, even though you have flopped two pair. There are all kinds of ways you can get screwed here, and not too many ways for things to work out well for you. Everybody in a loose game is probably seeing the flop with an ace so that flopping aces and deuces is poor.

If I don't like flopped two pair when they're aces an deuces, I certainly don't like only flopping one pair, even though it's top pair. Flopped top pair, even aces, is pure junk in a typical, loose Omaha-8 game.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[PollyEmory]

[ QUOTE ]
But you have already raised on the first betting round - and now the villain is betting right into you.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if this is a Hold 'em behaviour, but I've seen players bet into a pre-flop raiser quite frequently when an A or a deuce falls on the flop, assuming their low has been killed. Usually, they do it with some kind of non-nut low draw expecting the pfr to raise (another hold 'em quirk) even with busted hand and therefore fold out people behind with better draws.
Against a player like that, a raise makes sense because it is likely that you can scoop against him frequently enough.

I don't particularly like this move against anyone but the above player since even if you're ahead at the moment for the high, you're unlikely a favorite so your hopes are pinned on the low only. I'd call here and hope for calls behind.

Short version: What Buzz said.

--Polly

[GooperMC]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess that should read
check, check, check,
rather than just
check, check.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes it should. Since the converter I had do some of the translation by hand and must have messed up.

[ QUOTE ]
Is that what you really want to do?

[/ QUOTE ]
That is exactly what I want to do. I am hoping the he is playing a weak hand and I can isolate him.

[ QUOTE ]
You stand to lose more by initiating fresh money into the pot than you stand to gain.

[/ QUOTE ]
If everyone calls I totally agree here.

The raise will be –EV unless
1) I can knock some people out
2) Nobody has a set or A's and K's that they can’t lay down.

I am going to go with the numbers in my previous post and say that if I call the final pot will be 13BB if I hit and 12BB if I miss of which I put in 2.5.

Scoop: (13 – 2.5)(.172) = 1.8
Low: (6 – 2.5)(.488 - .172) = 1.1
Missing: (.512)(-1.5) = -.786
Total EV for a call: 2.11BB

Lets assume that I can get HU with the bettor. There are 11 SB in the pot right now. I am going to say that he calls my raise, and we both put in 1BB on the turn and river. That would make the pot 11BB of which I put in 3BB.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Opponent Hand PE EV
Kh Qh 6d 4d: 55% (8)(.55) – (.45)(3) = 3.05
Kh Qh Js 10s: 56% (8)(.56) – (.44)(3) = 3.16
Kh Qh 5c 6c: 57% (8)(.57) – (.43)(3) = 3.27
Kd Kh 4c 6c: 31% (8)(.31) – (.69)(3) = .41
Ad Kd 4c 6c: 31% (8)(.31) – (.69)(3) = .41
Ad 5d 4c 6c: 48% (8)(.48) – (.52)(3) = 2.28
Kc 9s 2s 3s 71% (8)(.71) – (.29)(3) = 4.81
</pre><hr />

It looks like if I can get heads up I will make a more then calling if my opponent has anything except 55, KK, AA, AK. If you throw in 1 more opponent that doesn’t have the aforementioned hands then my EV goes up by even more. Example

Against Qs Ts Jd Kd and Kh 9h 2s 4s I have 46% of PE for a total EV of (14 – 3)(.46) – (3)(.54) = 3.44


I guess there are two distinct ways of playing this hand: call and draw draw for you wheel or raise and hope that nobody hit a set. Which way is optimal is totally dependant on what my opponents are playing. So maybe this play should be read dependant based on how much respect I have for the players in the hand with me. I think that at the table and levels that I am playing either play would be fine.

An interesting side note. The raise would actually be a better play if my hand was a little weaker by making the flopped 5 an 8.

Thanks for the thoughtful discussion everyone. I have really appreciated everyone’s insight and have enjoyed analyzing this hand.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
That is exactly what I want to do. I am hoping the he is playing a weak hand and I can isolate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gooper - Seems like a reasonable plan if it will work and if the villain is playing a weak hand.

Two questions: (1) Do you have any reason to suspect the villain is playing a weak hand? (2) Do your raises to isolate in situations like this usually work for you?

[ QUOTE ]
The raise will be –EV unless
1) I can knock some people out

[/ QUOTE ]

The way I have it figured, the raise will be -EV if you do knock some people out. I think it’s -EV especially if you knock people out.

[ QUOTE ]
I am going to go with the numbers in my previous post and say that if I call the final pot will be 13BB if I hit and 12BB if I miss of which I put in 2.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Forget what the final pot will be. Whatever is already in the pot will go to the winner regardless of how much you gain or lose with your raise. Whatever will be put in the pot on future betting rounds will go to the winner regardless of how much you gain or lose with your raise. If you want to consider whether your odds are favorable or not, what matters here is what odds you’re getting for initiating fresh money into the pot on this betting round. That’s it, pure and simple.

The other consideration is how your raise will affect the way your opponents play. For example, if your raise blows them all away, so that they all concede the pot to you, then the raise is a good move -but wishing doesn’t make it so.

But all right, I guess we have to go back to your previous post.

[ QUOTE ]
If I raise and get 2 callers, everyone calls the turn, and 1 player
calls the river the final pot will be 13BB and I will have put in 3BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

Check.

[ QUOTE ]
Lets say I call (instead of raise) and get 1 more caller on the flop
and 1 more callers on the turn then the final pot will be the same but
I will have put in 2.5BB.

[/ QUOTE ]

I get .5 BB less, but no big deal.

All right. I follow what you’re doing. I’ll buy it up to here:

[ QUOTE ]
so value of the low half will be 13 / 2 *.75 = 4.9.
- The value of the top 1/2 will be 13 / 2 * .75 + 13 * .25 = 8.1.

[/ QUOTE ]

If there are 13 big bets in the final pot, the value of low is 6.5 big bets. Since you’ll have put in 2.5 of these big bets, you’ll win 4 big bets if you get all of the low half of the pot. (But since you’ll often have to share the low half of the pot, you’ll average winning closer to 3 big bets).

Similarly, if there are 13 big bets in the final pot, the value of winning both ways is 13 big bets, but since you’ll have put in 2.5 of these big bets yourself, you’ll win 10.5 big bets if you scoop. (But since you’ll often have to share the pot with another 23XX, you’ll actually average winning closer to ..... O.K. I’ll buy 8.1 big bets - I’d even have conceded a bit more there - but 8.1 is fine).

[ QUOTE ]
- If there is a low out I will have it 2:3 and 1:3 I will not.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I’m counting correctly, you’ll have the nut low 2:3 and the non-nut low 1:3.

[ QUOTE ]
For the raise let R be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 3 = 8.1R + .25

For the call let C be the % I win the high:
EV = 8.1H + (.66)(4.9) – 2.5 = 8.1C +.75

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t follow these equations. I see where you’re getting some of your numbers, but I don’t follow the logic for the equations. Maybe I’m just not seeing it. At any rate, I don’t think I quite agree with your numbers. I like 3 better than 4.9. The 8.1 is all right. (My own 8.5 was bending over backwards to give the raise the benefit of the doubt).

[ QUOTE ]
That means if 8.1R + .25 = 8.1C + .75 then I will break even with my raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t follow, but whatever.

[ QUOTE ]
That will happened whenever 8.1(R – C) = .5 or R – C = .0617

[/ QUOTE ]

If you say so.

[ QUOTE ]
If I have done everything right that a raise would have to win my chance of winning the high by 6% for the raise to be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

I’m not sure if you’ve done everything right, but I will agree a raise increases your chance of winning the high. However, I don’t know how you could calculate the percentage by which the raise increases your chances. Whatever it might be, I don’t think you’ve calculated it here, although I’ll admit I’m stumped trying to follow your logic.

[ QUOTE ]
(It also means that I have a job that allows me to do these calculations instead of doing real work but that a topic for another post).

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like a nice job. At least nobody’s breathing down your neck.

[ QUOTE ]
Does pushing that 1 player out of the pot give me 6% more PE?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don’t know, and I don’t follow how 6% more PE (whatever that is... pot equity?) makes the raise worth while.

[ QUOTE ]
Add in the fact that a raise puts me in control of the hand, give me the opportunity to get a free card on the turn, gives me good info on what my opponents are playing,

[/ QUOTE ]

That all seems worthwhile.

[ QUOTE ]
and may push more the 1 players out of the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

But I don’t think losing players in this scenario (your hand, this flop, your opponents actions) is to your advantage. If you lose players, then you lose bets from these players when you make your draw. If you give the player who bet this flop proper respect, then if you don’t make your draw, you’re not winning anything anyway. (Six per cent of nothing is nothing).

[ QUOTE ]
and I think that the raise is a play that I will continue to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

Go for it then. I’m going to continue to think the raise is not a very good play, and for the various reasons I’ve already stated. But for the reasons you cited that seem worthwhile to me (above) and also for other reasons that will go unmentioned here, I don’t think the raise is absolutely horrid.

But I do think you'll get punished raising like this against good players.

Just my opinion. I'll be signing off now and I probably won't be logging back on for almost another week.

Take care.

Buzz