Very Strange Hand Party 2k

[Jason Strasser]

Your criticism is acceptable. I posted the hand because it didn't feel right. I do think though that Im not always going to be behind here.

-Jason

[muzungu]

strassa-

Do people take these sorts of flop lines in these games with weak made hands? His weak lead/weak 3-beat line looks like a donkey who thinks his hand is invincible. Whether that means JJ (my read), 99, or AA is debatable, but his play screams "you can't beat me, I am gonna take your $ a little at a time".

Obviously, with such a drawish board this is not the case, leading to the read that he is a donkey who is overvaluing his hand. As such, I'd say that 1) you have no fold equity vs him on a flop push and 2) you aren't winning on the turn.

Once he 3-bets, I am taking one off. If he makes another milking bet and you have odds to call when it gets back to you, obviously do so, but IMO that is your only play here. DO NOT BE TEMPTED BY THE SIREN'S SONG THAT IS THE TURN A!

(well, unless you know the river is gonna be a diamond.)

-muz

[cero_z]

Hi Jason,

Since nobody (I think) has mentioned it, I can see your call on the turn. It's clear to me that you are beat about 100% of the time, since he likely puts you on the nut flush draw, and won't expect you to fold that + Aces. But what's not clear is that you are just drawing to the flush. He could have 2 pair, based on the action so far (in fact we know he had AA, which is one notch below 2 pair on the flop). Most likely, if he has 2 pair, he flopped top two, and in that case you have a lot of outs. I will admit that J9 is not too likely given the pre-flop action, unless MP1 was me (it wasn't). But IMO, a set is also very unlikely. See below.

What's crazy about this hand is that I think you could've won it on the flop. His too-small re-raise to 450 tells me that he was prepared to release the hand, given your cold-call and MP2's min-raise. He actually played the hand pretty great, IMO. See, if he had a set, and was therefore "sure" he had the best hand (or was definitely going to the felt with 99 or 66), he has to raise more than 270 more to shut out a flush draw. His smaller re-raise was actually a "feeler".

The problem for you in all of this is that his hand does look like a monster in the hands of a less-than-great player. How are you supposed to know if he's an expert or just some regular PP denizen? Still, you should've pushed the 2nd time around on the flop, or just re-opened the betting, trying to get them both all-in, for the straight-up math of it, I think. The turn is therefore questionable but not horrible, IMO.

Nice catch.

[The Antagonizer]

I hate the overcall on the flop. Any decent player at these stakes will recognize that as a flush draw, but it's a tough spot position wise to be in. Auto fold on the turn, you're up against JJ or AA here way too much.

[Chris Piekarski]

Looking at the hand it seems that he could very easily have KK or QQ here. You flat-called preflop, you flat-called a raise and then a reraise on the flop..I mean..I assume you don't normally play this passively, so he has to put you on a draw. He could put the other guy on any J or a different draw. So of course when the scary turn comes he'd go all-in with KK or QQ, in addition to the other million hands that beat you. It's one of those situations where the ace is bad enough to scare off any action from KJ no matter what he bets, but he won't get you off your draw unless he pushes. And he wants that pot now.

So, my question is this: What does everyone think about a small bet on the turn for purposes of getting information? Since he would probably push with KK or QQ there if you check, maybe bet $300 or so. If he does push it's an easy fold. There are 12 combinations of KK or QQ that he could have, and 14 combinations of AA, JJ, 99, 66, AJ..the latter are a little more likely so it's maybe 65/35. I think your call on the turn was close, but only because you didn't know where he was at. The information bet will tell you.