Phoenix vs San Antonio - Page 3

llabb · #21 05-26-2005, 05:49 AM

I was hoping to get some discussion in before making a play on Game 3. But after last night's Wade debacle and the super-tight line-setting, I think I need to lock in the lines early, even though the next game isn't for several days.

The Over at most places is 214, but I'm able to get it at 213 at a reasonable price, so I should jump on that now. SA does not mind the pace, and is making no effort to slow things down. Why should they, having won 2 games that way? J.Johnson expected to play, which should also boost scoring.

Side is a very tough play, so I don't think I'm going to play it directly. I'd normally be all over the Spurs at home even at the -5.5 line. If Pho had won Game 2, that's what I'd do. But with the situation as is, I'm a little wary. Suns' last chance to get back in the series, J.Johnson possibly providing a psychological and scoring boost, long rest and J.Johnson will help Nash's stamina (whereas he faded down the stretch in Game 2 due to no rest), and if you're a conspiracy theorist, you have to think the refs will favor Pho, just to lengthen the series, for the benefit of the league and TV partners. Also read that Duncan's injury doesn't show much when he keeps playing with only short breaks between games, but that a long rest may affect him more because of spasms and tightening up.

Can't stay away, though, so I'm looking at a teaser on Pho +10, Over 207.5. The Over is a gimme at that price, and I think Pho should be within 10 due to the above factors. I thought about doing it the other way, taking the teaser with the Spurs at -1 instead, but all the factors mentioned make me fear an unusual Pho win more than I fear a complete blowout.

Final plays: Over and Pho/Over teaser.

heropretend · #22 05-26-2005, 09:09 AM

i give up analysing these games...the oddsmakers have it right. i have it off by a half point.

but for the brilliant reasons my fellow posters have stated, i'm playing a parlay O 208.5, +10-10.5 depends what i can get.

Tha Villain · #23 05-26-2005, 03:38 PM

I think I'm gonna play Pho, for the same reasons llab posted.

I have some boxing bets this weekend, I'll see how those go and if I come out on top with those that will determine how much I put on Pho, or if anything at all. I'm definitely betting the Over though. Gotta jump on it early.

heropretend · #24 05-28-2005, 05:20 AM

er, i meant teaser up there.

anyway, here's my thoughts about tonight's game.
-the refs will not provide the Spurs home court advantage with the MVP needing a victory. i'm not sure i believe in conspiracy theories, but I do think the refs will take a play off for the dog.
-we haven't seen the best of the Suns, and I know we're all ready to see them come out and score 130.
-Joe Johnson's return puts pressure on both teams. We know the Spurs do not react as well to pressure as a team like Detroit. The Suns w/Johnson can finally match up with the Spurs in terms of perimeter defense and sick someone on the Ginobili.

The moneyline is a decent play if you're getting +190 or more. For me...I like the first half +3 Suns. I'm going with my head here that the Spurs are likely pull the game off, but the layoff favors Pho and its time for them to come out for one night and pretend they're world champions. I think the teaser of the Suns/over is a great play, but at this point I don't know which is the safer bet for the reasons niss stated in the teaser thread.

Good luck.

goofball · #25 05-28-2005, 01:38 PM

There's no way i could pass up +220 on the suns for today.

goofball · #26 05-28-2005, 01:40 PM

also, what do you think of the suns at 18-1 to win the whole shebang?

heropretend · #27 05-28-2005, 05:50 PM

chances are this series is a sweep.

goofball · #28 05-28-2005, 06:43 PM

i think that too. but i could see the suns winning it al1 1 time in 18. Yes it's a long shot, but the suns are the best road team in the NBA. They can't be counted completely out.

heropretend · #29 05-28-2005, 08:06 PM

yah you're right on. but i do think it'd take 18 tries.

in any case, i'm real excited about this game. good luck. i'm sure half of us will be kicking and screaming at halftime.

Tha Villain · #30 05-30-2005, 05:29 PM

What are you guys thoughts/playing for tonights game 4?

This series really looks like a sweep. The Suns are the NBA's best road team, but the Spurs are the best home team. I really doubt they let the Suns sneak in and win one. IMO the homecourt advantage is bigger than the road advantage.

Also, I read that the home team in a 3-0 series is 4-0 in game for since 1964.

Also, the Spurs have given up 100+ points only once this season, against the Sonics. It's gonna be hard for the Suns to win the game if the point total is under 200.

Yes, the Suns are facing a must win and should come out with more intensity, but did you see their faces Saturday? They looked upset, confused, dejected... I think they have no clue how to beat this Spurs team. And if they come out in a frenzy and play desperate, they will be playing right into SA's hands.

IMO the past three games were must wins. They HAD to take one at home after losing that first one. They lost it. They HAD to win yesterday to make it 2-1 and avoid going down 3-0, something no team has come back from. They lost again. This is an elimination game, but I think that if they have it in them to beat San Antonio, they would have done it by now.

SA is -270, Pho is +230. I think I'm gonna pass on Pho today. I thought they had a chance Saturday and bet on them. I lost lol.

I'm deciding between San Antonio and the Under. The ML is high for SA right now, I'll wait until the last minute to see if it comes down any. Same for the Under. It was at 210 this morning. Now it's at 211. I might be able to squeeze out another point or two before tip off.

What do you guys think?