Phoenix vs San Antonio

[llabb]

The Spurs look good, both at +3, and on the moneyline at +130 currently. Phoenix is weary, after their thrilling and grueling 7 game series against Dallas, and has not had any time to rest. Their bench is even shallower than normal, with J.Jackson starting and J.Johnson still expected not to play Game 1.

San Antonio beat Phoenix handily the first two games of the regular season, then only lost by 6 even though they were without Duncan or Ginobili. The main concern with taking San Antonio is that Duncan is injured, but he is still expected to play.

Even with that risk, I will take San Antonio in Game 1. The moneyline offers better value, in my opinion, but either play is reasonable. I also like the over, as San Antonio was able to win during the regular season even playing at a fast pace, with several high scoring games.

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The Spurs also look good to win the series, especially if they do take Game 1 or 2 in Phoenix. Spurs at -160 to win the series looks a little expensive to me, though. I have taken the Spurs to win in 6 (+265) and the Spurs to win in 7 (+515), averaged out for a net line of +129.


Does anyone else like these plays, or have any analysis either way?

I heard or read something today that Duncan is a whole lot more injured than they're saying. Ordinarily I'd like the Spurs too but I am going to stay away due to the uncertainty. If Duncan truly is hurt enough to affect his play, I can easily see PHX winning.

[llabb]

Pho-SA Game 2 tonight.

Game 1 went as I said in the analysis above, and I won both picks and a parlay. Hope I can do just as well tonight!

For Game 2, I think Pho will come out of the blocks much, much stronger. This is virtually a must-win for them, as they would have almost no chance to win the series going to SA down 0-2. They lost Game 1 for 2 reasons, I think.

First, they just started flat, and were down 2-8 in the first couple minutes. Nash has had several interviews saying that he knew from the get-go that the team came out weakly and was missing some energy. That's what I thought would happen, due to the weariness from the intense series with Dallas and the shortened bench. That won't happen in Game 2, as they know they have to start strong. Their home court crowd will continue to pump them up and try to help give them energy.

Second, the Spurs went crazy from 3-pt range. 10-for-23 for a nice 44%, largely due to Barry's 5-for-8, which included 2 back-to-back game-changing shots in the 4th, with 4 minutes left to go. Barry may have more confidence now, but that kind of hot streak probably won't continue to that extent, considering he's averaging 7 pts in both the regular and post-season so far. Suns will pay more attention to permiter D and shooters like Barry. Suns kept the Spurs to 28% 3-pt shooting during the regular season, so they should do better in this area in Game 2.

Marion is also a lock to get more than the miserable 3 pts scored in his worst playoff game ever.

So I like the Suns to win. Don't like laying pts, but a -180 moneyline is even worse, so I'll lay the 4 pts, which is not too bad.


Thoughts? Anyone disagree, or do you guys like this play?

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[llabb]

I also like the Over once again. Over 207 in Game 1 was a joke, and I don't think the line's moved enough, even at Over 211.

Phoenix scores prolifically, of course, and SA can be a tremendous scoring team when they want to be, as well. They averaged 109 against Pho during the regular season (even after subtracting out for the 1 overtime, and even though they were without either Duncan or Ginobili at the end of the season).

The Spurs are making all kinds of noises about being able to win at a fast pace, and it looks like they will not make any effort to slow down the tempo. Popovich had an interview on ESPN, where he said that you're not gonna keep Phoenix under a hundred, it's just not gonna happen, we just gotta find ways to put points on the board. About how Phoenix isn't good at getting back, so you gotta go at them hard quickly, to get easy buckets in transition. Then he talked about Tony Parker being the key, and letting him push the ball, and how Parker would want the the scores to be in the 180's each if he had his way. Then Parker was interviewed and talked about wanting to run. Besides, the Spurs won Game 1 running at Phoenix's pace, so they appear comfortable doing that. It's what they did in the regular season as well, playing up-tempo ball.

In Game 1, the tempo and scoring increased every quarter, going from 50 to 54 to 56 to the incredible 75 pt fourth quarter. That's not a crazy anomaly either, since during the reg-season, they've already had quarters of 67, 63, 65 & 60.

I like them to have average quarters of 55-56, for a total somewhere around 222. Play the Over. Whadda y'all think?!

[llabb]

I'm writing too much about this, but now that I've gotten my thoughts together, I know how I want to play this. Small plays on Pho -4 and the Over, and a big play on a 2-play Teaser.

Normally teasers just cost a ton of money for the points you're buying, but the safety of the pts will give me the peace of mind to make a nice-sized play. I can get 4.5 pts on the side and 6.5 on the total; your bookie will probably vary.

But that gives me Pho +0.5 and Over 204.5 at even money odds. Hope it works out, and that I don't give back all of the last 2 night's wins!

[heropretend]

sounds too easy doesn't it?

i'm with you on most plays. money line doesn't offer value, but i think the game is a no play. my heart wants phoenix to come out strong, but as much as i like phoenix's performance in the dallas series, i can't ignore the weaknesses they showed in game 4(?) when a contained Amare led to a phoenix defeat. the spurs offensive is overlooked, but when you look at this team, it was really only a decent C/PF like Nazr away from being able to run and get back with the best of them. its no wonder why rasho is seeing the pine. that said, phoenix showed me enough that im taking the points on the road (or a +140 or so moneyline), with joe johnson and their uncharacteristic disregard for the home team fans, i think there's value in that play.

otherwise, hope the pace sustains and take the under (or wait til the detroit game 2, take det with the points and take the under in the high 170s.)

[heropretend]

er...i meant take the over. if i didnt blow a ton on some seattle 2nd halves, and spreads, i'd have bet a ton too.

[llabb]

I understand. I'm wary of laying the 4 pts myself, as it could be a close one. However, I just can't get away from Pho winning this one.

Do you think the Spurs will sweep the Suns?! Assuming the Suns are going to grab a game, it should be this must-win at home.

That's why I like the 2-play teaser so much. It's just a Pho outright win, and over 204.5 should be a lock.

[heropretend]

honestly, my judgment is clouded. the spurs are the only team i hate in the entire league. but like some other post has mentioned, the line is weird. +170 on the spurs at any time in the season is just weird. i know the spurs have a legacy of dropping big games and coming up short against certain teams, but im holding off until i see the suns with joe johnson.

[llabb]

Yeah, very weird lines. I posted my 2 cents about it in the other thread. Weird how much the ML is moving, but not the side pts.

Anyway, I see why you want them to have J.Johnson, because they're just so shallow, and could really use him. But I'd caution against thinking he's gonna be the guy to turn things around. He hasn't practiced in 2 weeks, and had to get EYE surgery. That's gotta hurt your whole game, esp passing and shooting.

Pho will probably benefit more from Marion rebounding from his awful Game 1 showing, and if Q can actually make a 3 against the Spurs, who he's 2-for-16 against.

So you're gonna wait on the side, but are you gonna take the Over again?