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#41
05-25-2005, 01:31 PM
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A Simple Bayesian Analysis
As per DMBFan23's suggestion, here is a simple Bayesian analysis of the river. We don't really need to apply Bayes's theorem becuase the condition (MP2 bets the river) already happened so its probability is 1. Nevertheless, we could make this calculation more interesting by doing it before he bets. Here is a decent primer on Bayes's theorem:
http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/bayes-theorem/ Anyway, on with the simplified calculation. Let n be the factor by which MP2 is more likely to have a diamond when he bets. Furthermore, suppose that n is an integer multiple of 1/2. This simplifies the calculation, because we can do the same calculation for the odds of there being a diamond, but we just pretend that MP2 has 2n cards. (For example if he had two hands = 4 cards, he would be twice as likely to have a diamond.) Since I am getting 15:1 on my call, I need to find the largest n such that the probability of there being a diamond subject to the condition that MP2 bet is greater than 1/16. I calculated n to be 4. So, if MP2's bet guarantees that he is at most 4 times more likely to have a diamond, then I should call. (This neglects the small possibility of a boat, quads, but there is a little room in the above calculation and add in the calling-when-it's-close-so-I-don't-fold-the-best-hand-and-go-on-tilt factor.) Nak 
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#42
05-25-2005, 01:32 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
I must be crazy...22, 33, 44 are limp in hands with, hopefully good pot odds..yeah I'd call a raise behind, after I limp, but you will only win with a set. ????
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#43
05-25-2005, 01:34 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
you will also occasionally flop a flop like this that will allow you to play on, and when you make a set you will have something like 80% equity in the hand. boo ya.
pf is like the least interesting part of this hand
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#44
05-25-2005, 01:38 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
what my odds are preflop and what I stand to make postflop in the event that I DO set up are two different things entirely. against players who tend to take hopeless hands too far postflop and who will give ridiculous action with top pair, you don't need 7.5-1 to try for a set.
that prompts the question "well would you call if it were just the raiser?" and no I would not. but here with two other players in, with the potential for more, you're good to go ahead and gamboooooool.
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#45
05-25-2005, 01:42 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] fold pf u have frickin' 44 [/ QUOTE ] this is a pretty easy call preflop with 3 people in and the blinds (UTG has to call one more but will undoubtedly do that) [/ QUOTE ] there is one caller, one raiser, a coldcaller and then our 'hero'. i dont like this because you dont know what is going to happen after. everyone could call. no one could call. someone could 3bet. in late position with 3 or 4 in i'll call. we're middle with a raiser and one caller. in my opinion, abort! 77 or 88 ill call. 99 and up ill 3bet. I dunno about 44...maybe he knew something about the table/players that i didnt but i'm out of this. [/ QUOTE ] two words -> implied odds you flop a set here and then you rake in BB's palm over fist [/ QUOTE ] w/ large pot no one is going anywhere and will draw to their straight/flush/larger set enough times to beat you [/ QUOTE ] why do we want them to get out? with a set, going from flop to river, we have 7 outs to improve to a boat or better, and if we're UI on the turn, all it does is improve us to 10 outs to the river. Basiccally, even if I were to flop a set on a monotone board, I'd still peel. I hope you were joking about your worries of somebody drawing to a set.
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#47
05-25-2005, 01:52 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
There are two possibilities that I can see here.
The bettor has AKs or AKo, and you had him crushed until the river, where he may or may not have taken the hand. The bettor has JJ-AA (maybe even TT) and you runner-runnered him to take the hand Either way, I think you win this hand less than the odds you need, and though the river call looks good, you would fold everything except a 4 or a diamond on that street. On second thought, if you called him down all this way with a read that he has AKs or AKo, you might as well continue to call down. Good luck.
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#48
05-25-2005, 01:54 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
I hope you were joking about your worries of somebody drawing to a set. [/ QUOTE ] SB 3bet pf. what do u 3bet from SB with, hmm? JJ-AA? Hmm.... Im not checking this thread again b/c i have lost interest. As far as the rest of the hand goes, calling down is fine b/c of the pot size. I raise the river to try and fold a slightly larger diamond, since we do in fact have the lowest possible flush. would the 5 or 6 of diamonds call 2 cold?
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#49
05-25-2005, 01:54 PM
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Re: \"Just call down like a donkey\" Thanks SSHE (No Content)
[ QUOTE ]
I must be crazy...22, 33, 44 are limp in hands with, hopefully good pot odds..yeah I'd call a raise behind, after I limp, but you will only win with a set. ???? [/ QUOTE ] Hi Jim. I understand your point, but in these games your implied odds for sets are very big. You will flop a set 11.8% of the time. So, your implied odds need to be 7.5:1 which is very common in loose/agreesive games. If the game were not loose/aggressive enough, then this call would probably not be correct. Nak
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Linear Mode
