KQs: what to do with overcards?

[irishpint]

see i disagree. i think we raise because i feel like we have an edge if we pick up our straight and flush draws. this raise isn't to protect our hand- no one's folding. it's to get their money in the pot now so we can spend it later. and hopefully buy a free card [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i suppose a 3bet here by the bettor would be terrible since it may wipe the others out...but that's an off chance i feel like, since i really want to raise this.

[Wetdog]

Disregard my previous 4-flushing idiocy.

Yes, fold this.

[detruncate]

What does a TAG call out of the SB with here? This would be a good place to start.

Next, he bets this flop into 4 players, including a "somewhat loose, very passive" player and a TAG who can trap the field with a raise. He's obviously not interested in trying to protect his hand from anything other than a check through. He also has to think that he'll be raised a not insignificant % of the time.

He now checks the turn. What does that suggest? He might be on a draw -- there's one OESD on board, but that's about it. Gutshot + overcard (ace)? He might not like his hand so much (pp second pair? 5s?). He might think either you or BB will bet if checked to, allowing him to c/r -- this one is not particularly likely given how you've played to this point and our read of BB.

What does he bet the river with after checking the turn? He's going to be betting for one of two reasons (assuming he's a solid player): (1) He thinks he's a favourite when called; (2) He thinks he can push his opponents off better hands.

So... where are we? He could be bluffing his busted draw -- factor in your read of BB... how protected is this pot? He probably doesn't expect BB to fold a pair a high % of the time, so we assume he's got a hand. He might have a pair that improved to a set -- it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to see him call pf with 88 or 77. He might be on 9s and be value betting 2nd pair. He might be value betting A-high -- how likely are you to call K high or worse in a (semi-?)protected pot + how likely is he to be a favourite when called against BB + how likely is BB to fold a pair?

What's the verdict? What are his most likely holdings? How likely are we to be ahead? Is it often enough to call?

[SteveL91]

I may be wrong, but again, I just don't see the point in raising the flop. The backdoor draws won't come in anywhere near often enough to allow for a value raise - I don't think -, so basically, we're drawing to our overcards. I'd say with relative certainty that the bettor has a pair, which means we're likely underdogs. This isn't Omaha where a draw can be a favorite to a made hand. I don't know about you, but I really hate pumping a raised pot where I'm last to act against two other players where one has bet, the other has called and the board is fairly benign. I'm not trying to push my underdog status.

In this specific hand, I just don't see a raise being necessary or proper.

[irishpint]

if bettor has a pair on this board we have 6 outs to improve. plus our backdoors.

Between: top pair on the board (T) likely not going to be good, to the possibilities of our draw coming in and striking it rich, to the unlikely possibility of a 3bet- only a crazy 2 pair or set would- no TPTK i dont think would, to the free card (which is huge for us) i think we raise. but i lose $ lately, despite playing what i think is pretty solid poker.

[Stinkybeaver]

fold river...

[CHJ-DK]

Call the river.
Raise the flop. It could well have missed everybody. I put SB on a T or he is trying to push you out with a weaker hand thinking you missed. Best to find out now. An aggressive player with a big hand would checkraise you - the situation is begging for it, so he isnt too strong to fold to aggression from you. I'd play it like I had a high pair, semibluffing the turn as well.

[milesdyson]

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Call the river.
Raise the flop. It could well have missed everybody. I put SB on a T or he is trying to push you out with a weaker hand thinking you missed. Best to find out now. An aggressive player with a big hand would checkraise you - the situation is begging for it, so he isnt too strong to fold to aggression from you. I'd play it like I had a high pair, semibluffing the turn as well.

[/ QUOTE ]
If I'm the solid TAG in the SB, you really, really don't want to raise the flop. A solid TAG isn't going to just checkraise a big hand, he's going to check raise one he wants to protect. I would play a set how the SB played it.

Now, in this case, we know that he happened to check the turn, which doesn't really make sense to me. A solid player is only betting a hand on that flop strong enough to lead that very innocent looking turn. I wouldn't be surprised if he's attempting an ill-advised turn check raise.

And again, fold the river.

[Schwartzy61]

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Easy Fold. I think SB is betting something here, the way it went down I would guess a pair of 5's, possibly a hand like 72 or 75.

On the flop you have backdoor draws galore, straight, flush, and two overcards, all told that's like 5.5 outs I think so I think you're good to call.

Turn, you improved 0 of your draws and are now pretty much done with the hand, if it isn't checked down I fold, <font color="red"> If I managed to hit top pair on the river I might check/call</font>, but otherwise I don't see you having the best hand, SB isn't betting zilch on this one no matter how aggressive he is...

[/ QUOTE ]

So you call with a pair but fold a flush? Puppies are dying everywhere!

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How do you hit a flush with only three to a flush after the turn? I was basing not calling with anything other than top pair on the fact that it is now impossible to hit a flush. If I hit a flush I am bettting/raising, I might've misread the turn card so I'll go back and check but I thought that all of our draws died on the turn except for overcards...

edit...I checked turn was a diamond, we have two hearts in the hole and one on the board, pretty sure a 4 flush doesn't take down many hands...

2nd edit...didn't see your other post...