What's My Winrate?

[Justin A]

According to Nate's formula, you should be at 1.28 BB/100.

[masonx]

I bet your getting eaten alive right now at 15/30.. combined w/ running a little bad and seeing too few showdowns. not blind defending enough.

[Your Mom]

Do you fall asleep between hands that you actually play?

[roy_miami]

[ QUOTE ]
According to Nate's formula, you should be at 1.28 BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this formula real? If it is, where can i find it?

[protocol]

My original post may have been too vague, as several people have misinterpreted what I am asking. I am aware that 10k hands means nothing, and it would be impossible to guess my BB/100 over a specific 10k hand sample. What I want to know is if these were my stats after 100k or 200k hands, what would my winrate be?

I appreciate the advice on the stats also, it seems the general consensus is that this is much too weak/tight (which is consistent with other stats posts I've seen).

One last question. What is an ideal Folded To River Bet in the Party 15 game?

[stoxtrader]

the rest of what you said i agree with. Your win rate estimate I think a bit high possibly.

this is a bit past slightly weak-tight. and with the 10/15 structure the penalty for this type of play is even greater.

[helpmeout]

0.5-1BB/100 if you are lucky.

Just too tight, aggressive preflop players will run over you.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
According to Nate's formula, you should be at 1.28 BB/100.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this formula real? If it is, where can i find it?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's like 150 posts back in the General Hold'em forum. The formula doesn't necessarily tell you how good a player plays, but it's also a measure of how you've been running. It takes VPIP, PFR, W$WSF, and W$SD and tries to predict BB/100 over that sample, NOT true win rate.

[Kirg]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this formula real? If it is, where can i find it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Linky