What's My Winrate?

[protocol]

First off, I know 10k hands doesn't really mean a whole lot, which is exactly why I'm making this post. I don't want to wait 100k hands for my winrate to stabilize if these stats indicate that my true winrate will be significantly different than my observed winrate after 10k hands.

It should go without saying, but I'm certainly not trying to brag/complain about my current BB/100, I just want an honest opinion of what these stats should predict over the long term.

So anyways, on to the question: Based on the given PT stats (all from Party 15/30), what would you expect the BB/100 figure to be?

Thanks.

[Ezcheeze]

-0.01 BB/100

[I Play 2 Ski]

I'll guess between 0 & +1BB/100. If you play more agressively in the blinds you'll do better

[krishanleong]

You have 10K hands. Nobody cares.

Krishan

[esspo]

That is exactly what I though.

[man]

I think he explained himself pretty well... the question is if he kept up these numbers over 100k hands, where would his winrate be at. Are his actions really that affected by card runs? I don't know. I'm too inexperienced to tell. But it doesn't seem too hard to make a ballpark guess.

[bicyclekick]

You're too aggro man. Your flop aggression is probably ok but I think a little lower would be better. Turn aggression should be a chunk lower, and river aggression lower too...check call more...it'll induce bluffs and you wont get raised by the donks.

Your aggression numbers is probably why your went to sd is so low and won at sd so high as you're 'finding out' where you're at more and calling down less, but IMO this is far less profitable poker.

I'd estimate with those stats you'd be about a 1bb/100 winner or so long term.

[tpir90036]

Your went to SD % seems a little low. And your agression factors are all pretty darn high. So you might be running hot and running people over.... or you might be firing away blindly and missing and be doing terribly. It's almost impossible to tell.

Judging by the context clues I would say that you have some ridiculous positive win rate that is not sustainable. I will go with 4.20BB/100.

-tpir

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
You're too aggro man. Your flop aggression is probably ok but I think a little lower would be better. Turn aggression should be a chunk lower, and river aggression lower too...check call more...it'll induce bluffs and you wont get raised by the donks.

Your aggression numbers is probably why your went to sd is so low and won at sd so high as you're 'finding out' where you're at more and calling down less, but IMO this is far less profitable poker.

I'd estimate with those stats you'd be about a 1bb/100 winner or so long term.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think the aggression stats are out of line given his VPIP.

[bicyclekick]

interesting point. i forgot about his vpip, which is too low. i think they still are on the high side and he goes to sd too little.