what do you do when flop open ended but a pair on board

[TomBrooks]

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That's not good. Run some PokerStove simulations and you'll see why.

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Hi Q-Tip. I put a pot on the fire. It's going to take a long time to run though. It hasn't even hit 1% in the first ten minutes. So far Hero is showing an equity of 24% and is leading by a fraction over the next player.

I gave all the other players some hands that ought to be raised pre-flop too like TT, AQs-ATs, KQs-KTs. No one in this hand raised preflop though. There are also a bunch of hands in there that strongly deserve to be bet on the flop unless they are being slowplayed.

If anyone else wants to run a calculation and with some different starting hand possibilities, by all means do so.

[QTip]

Tom:

You computer must be pretty slow or you have a lot of random hands. Here's a couple sims I ran:

Board: Th Tc Qc

Hand 1: 13.6214 % [ 00.13 00.00 ] { KsJd }
Hand 2: 37.4969 % [ 00.37 00.00 ] { Td2d }
Hand 3: 09.5786 % [ 00.09 00.00 ] { Qs8d }
Hand 4: 05.8337 % [ 00.05 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 04.4661 % [ 00.04 00.00 ] { Ah8h }
Hand 6: 29.0033 % [ 00.29 00.00 ] { 4c2c }

Granted, I put a FF in there as well as a T. However, realize that for every A or 9 in someones hand your equity on the flop goes down 4%. For example, notice something like this wihtout the FF:

Hand 1: 18.4685 % [ 00.18 00.00 ] { KsJd }
Hand 2: 49.0991 % [ 00.49 00.00 ] { Td2d }
Hand 3: 10.3604 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { Qs8d }
Hand 4: 09.9099 % [ 00.10 00.00 ] { 9d8s }
Hand 5: 04.8048 % [ 00.04 00.01 ] { Ah8h }
Hand 6: 07.3574 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { As2c }

So, in your scenario, we need to understand that if we get raised, and there's a caller or a reraiser, whatever, if there's a lot of action, we're likely behind and going to have to play our hand with extreme caution.

I still favor a flop bet for a couple reasons:

1. We may have the strongest hand at this point.

2. You may take it down right there anyway.

3. We could end up with the button even if the early players call us, giving us a free card possibility - that we may take if we choose to do so.

[walkdoc]

Grunching

Bet the flop since no one raised pre-flop, but the check raise attempt was ok too.
Turn bet was good.
Re-raise the river because the Ace probably gave someone 2 pair and not a boat. No flush draw either.
IMHO
walkdoc

[walkdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
Grunching

Bet the flop since no one raised pre-flop, but the check raise attempt was ok too.
Turn bet was good.
Re-raise the river because the Ace probably gave someone 2 pair and not a boat. No flush draw either.
IMHO
walkdoc

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Wow, did not see you folded the turn! You should have at least called it down.

[TomBrooks]

Yo,
I'm still on zero %. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] I'll check back in a couple of hours. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I have a fast comp but I'm using five random hands. Hero is about 21% now and only fractionally higher that several other players.

Your first scenario includes both a T and a flush draw and your second includes a T, removes the flush draw, but takes away three of heros A and 9 outs. I think that may be a bit on the harsh side for a setup; but I see where your going - if you bet the flop and get reraised, you are likely to be up against a T, so continuing to press, even if everyone else came along padding the pot, would be bad. Ya.

[QTip]

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but I see where your going - if you bet the flop and get reraised, you are likely to be up against a T, so continuing to press, even if everyone else came along padding the pot, would be bad. Ya.

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Yeah, that's the point. 5 random hands is pretty worthless though, so you can probably end the sim unless you're just really curious.

I don't think you can even 3 bet a raise on the flop, although I'm still betting the flop. I was just addressing your comment about continuing to pump the flop with more than 3 players.

[QTip]

Now, an interesting discussion might be this scenario.

You bet the flop, someone behind you calls and everyone else folds.

The turn comes as a rag.

Do you bet again? and why?

[TomBrooks]

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You bet the flop, someone behind you calls and everyone else folds. The turn comes as a rag. Do you bet again? and why?

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No, I would check, not bet because I don't have a made hand, I'm drawing. I would call a bet though if I was getting 9ish:1 or better pot odds.

[Zoelef]

Grunching

Bet the flop, you have equity to spike a non-club straight. That alone changes the dynamic of this hand, but...

With 7 outs (discounting clubs to .5 each) to spike a non-club straight 5:1 actually isn't good enough to call on the turn. BUT, you have 3 people behind to act, so if you think 1+ will call behind you can call BB's bet here.

On the other hand, if you don't discount clubs you do have odds to call here.

[Rev. Good Will]

grunching

I don't know how to feel PF, but I'm swaying more towards calling as well.

I'd probably bet the flop, not cause I'm a LAG, but to pump my draw a little bit for the remaining streets

on the turn, your getting 1:5+(+ cause more people are yet to act) on a 1:4.75 odds to improve to a straight on the river, def +EV call you missed out on.