Split decision

[Garland]

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Although folding to the raise might be the best play not thinking you have ANY fold equity is insane.

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Suppose Matt pushes, and then villian gets $3060:$1480 or slightly better than 2:1 to call. What hands do you think villian is willing to fold that he initially raised with?

Garland

[mojolang]

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-I check the flop.


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I think checking the flop may be a bit weak unless you are planning to check raise. Even then I don't like it too much.

You aren't in bad shape against a set at all, only hands you are in bad shape against are like the aforementioned A of trump plus a pair, or the flopped flush. You said you thought it was pretty unlikely that he had the flush. Against his range, I like moving in, with folding being second. I move in.

Peace,

Joe

[mgsimpleton]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Although folding to the raise might be the best play not thinking you have ANY fold equity is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose Matt pushes, and then villian gets $3060:$1480 or slightly better than 2:1 to call. What hands do you think villian is willing to fold that he initially raised with?

Garland

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AJ no spade... (which doesn'tusually put in a raise there or even call preflop w/ no read on hero) uhhh what else? QK with the queen of spades?

[bogey]

I think just the chance he is bluff raising a scary board against what he feels is an overpair that will lay down is significant.

[Big FAT L0ser]

What decision? He has the A of spades, push and hope he only has high card A and you drag pot.

[Garland]

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What decision? He has the A of spades, push and hope he only has high card A and you drag pot.

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A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] isn't folding to the push. Note that if neither improve, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x drags the pot.

Garland

[Chaostracize]

If he has A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xo (where the x is unpaired), there is a very, very good chance it's folding. ~1500 to win ~2750, not good enough odds to call with just the draw unless opponent is a gambler. I don't horribly dislike cold calling this bet and pushing any non spade turn, though. It's that or fold on the flop, but it looks a lot to me like opponent is betting just enough to LOOK like he's committed without actually BEING committed. If a spade comes on the turn, play poker.

But, I'm probably wrong.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Although folding to the raise might be the best play not thinking you have ANY fold equity is insane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Suppose Matt pushes, and then villian gets $3060:$1480 or slightly better than 2:1 to call. What hands do you think villian is willing to fold that he initially raised with?

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

AJ no spade... (which doesn'tusually put in a raise there or even call preflop w/ no read on hero) uhhh what else? QK with the queen of spades?

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My 25-second response was push, and after further thought, I was unable to come up with a better line.

Some thoughts:

Given that CO limped preflop, I don't think there's any way he's got an ace and T or J. AJ and AT are positional raising hands for an aggressive player, and he's an aggressive player.

I'm having a real hard time putting villain on anything other than the naked ace of spades, or maybe a flopped baby flush? Flopped bottom set? I don't see two pair here; strong players don't limp in with JT.

Furthermore, if villain has the key As, he knows he can exert a ton of pressure on hero, and that makes sense for a raiser here. BUT, I just crunched the numbers. If villain has the naked ace, hero has .47EV and thus should play on.

Huh.

I really can't come up with a good line here.

Pushing is the most fun.

[coltrane]

I think you bet too much on the flop......what does $340 get you that $200 doesn't? (except a tougher decision [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])....

[Relentless]

hey creedofhubris, can you elaborate on what you mean by

"strong players don't limp in with JT."

thanks