3-way calling action on the bubble

[microbet]

I don't know what that is, but I tried it once and it seemed at least as slow.

[Gramps]

I've never used ICM (and am not familiar with it's assumptions, etc.), but here's some pokerstove numbers.

Assume UTG on average is pushing the top 1/2 of hands (I just used the top half vs. a random hand, not perfect, but close enough). Some UTG's will push a wider range here, some a narrower - it's the first hand on the bubble, so I'm not too sure whether this UTG likes to bully or not, etc.

I'm putting the button on Any Ace, any pair, KQo, KJo and any two suited ten or higher. Based on my experience in the 215s, a lot of players (when they realize they will be the first one forced all-in and are on a short stack) will call with a similar range of hands (some players wider than the one above, some narrower) against an apparent bullying stack (probably a favorite, have a chip overlay with the blinds, if win are back in battle for 1st/2nd, etc.).

If I call:

Me (K9s) = 31.2%
Button = 40.6%
UTG = 28.2%

If I fold:

UTG = 42.6%
button = 57.4%

If I call:

21% (roughly) of the time I get 2nd to the button and (having won side pot with UTG) have 530 chips. All other three players have at least 3,000.

20% (roughly) of the time I call, finish 3rd of 3 and end up in 4th.

28% of the time UTG wins, and I get 3rd (whether I beat the button or not)

31% of the time I win, the button is eliminated and the remaining players have equal chipstacks.

If I fold:

57.4% of the time the button wins, I have 1,050 chips (3.5 BB), the button has 2,300 chips and the other two about 3,000.

42.6% of the time UTG wins, I get at least 3rd, and have 1,050 chips vs. the BB's 3,300 chips and UTG's 5,500+ chips. Note that of this 42.6% of the time, I would have gotten 3rd at worst even by calling (since I have the button outchipped).

[eastbay]

It will deal flops out randomly, rather than each possible flop systematically. This will get closer to the true number much more quickly, but will never "finish" all possible flops.

I just realized how silly it is to put an option called "Monte Carlo" in an app for a general audience. That's a pretty arcane numerical analysis term.

eastbay