3-way calling action on the bubble

[Gramps]

At first glance this call probably looks totally flammable (and may still be), but here it goes. My assumptions in making it were that:

(a) UTG could be pushing a pretty wide range here with his "biggest stack" [though this is the first bubble hand as a short stack just got eliminated];

(b) the button may very well think UTG is pushing any two, and probably knows that he's going to have to make a stand first (before I have to) - i.e. his call doesn't necessarily mean a premium hand;

(c) if the button beats UTG, he's in 3rd at 2,330 and I'm at 1,055 with a little fold equity (maybe), and two hands to push.

(d) if UTG beats the button, me and my 1,055 chips will finish 3rd the vast majority of the time.

Still too loose, or no?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t300 (4 handed) converter

UTG (t4240)
Button (t940)
Hero (t1205)
BB (t3615)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t4240 (All-In)</font>, Button calls t940 (All-In), Hero calls t1055 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

If the call is too loose, where does the "call/fold threshold" lie here and why? Any of the above assumptions likely to be incorrect?

[Rojosox]

That is the worst EV hand i've ever seen

[The Yugoslavian]

I actually sorta like it, [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Ummmm, but yeah, I generally would feel better with a nicer hand. But as it is, you're covering kings and eights (and hearts!) which are prolly live helpin u knock off the short stack and if you 'get lucky' you're in great position for 1st.

This hopefully will be easy to run the math on once Eastbay breaks us off Push-O-Meter version: menage a trois.

Yugoslav

[Bigwig]

I don't like this call at all.

[Rojosox]

what happens when leader reveals K10, the other guy called with A9 .... now how do you feel? better pray for that qj10 board

[The Yugoslavian]

What if they both have 32o?

Yugoslav

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


(b) the button may very well think UTG is pushing any two, and probably knows that he's going to have to make a stand first (before I have to) - i.e. his call doesn't necessarily mean a premium hand;

Any of the above assumptions likely to be incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, "B" is the worst assumption of all in my opinion. Even bad SNG players realize when they get short that they would rather push than call. Also, they realize that somebody else may have bad calling standards like they do, so maybe one of the players behind will call and get beat.

This dude usually has a hand here. Your call is really bad from a chipEV standpoint, and from a $EV standpoint it may be as bad a bubble play as you can make.

Irieguy

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
what happens when leader reveals K10, the other guy called with A9 .... now how do you feel? better pray for that qj10 board

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, if I knew the leader had KT, and the button A9, a call would be clearly wrong. But when you give each player an appropriate range of hands, match K9s against them, and take into consideration the variables in play and the risk/reward of calling, then no, it's not "clearly" wrong.

If the button doesn't win this 3-way pot, I get no worse than 3rd. The times I call and button beats me and UTG both, yes, I'm worse off by calling than by folding (obviously)...but if I'd of stayed out of the way, in those situations I'm still more than a 2:1 chip dog to 3rd place - meaning I'm not putting a risk that much.

Plus, there will be a fair % of the time when I pig the whole thing, taking &gt; 3,000 chips - and some of those times if I'd folded, the button would have beaten UTG.

Not that you can't argue it's wrong to call, but "clearly wrong" means you're clearly missing all the variables involved.

[valenzuela]

are u high?

[valenzuela]

UTG might knock u out and button has a real hand.