How to tell if you are running bad. (Or good)

[Wally]

If I am losing I am running bad.

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
If I am losing I am running bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you just move up, it can be tough to tell if you just blow or are running bad.

Krishan

[sethypooh21]

Krishan,

Thanks for one of the more enlightening posts in recent memory. (Aside from any of Naphand's extended diatribe's against excel...)

[sweetjazz]

How do you figure that you see premium hands more often SH than full? I have played only low limits, mostly full, 0.5/1 - 2/4. In 28,772 I have seen a total of 599 "premium" hands (199 straight, 193 flush, 207 full house). That amounts to 1 of each premium every 144 hands.

I am pretty sure I am running hot, but I don't know what number I would expect here. I saw a lot of straights and flushes in 0.5/1, because I could play a lot of drawing hands cheaply before the flop.

I still find a fair number of passive tables at the low limits I play, which may account for some of my high frequency in making premium hands.

I'm sure I'm running good, and I'd really love to know "how good" I'm running, but I don't think these stats alone can tell you. The frequency with which you see premiums will depend on how you are running, but also
(1) how you are playing (i.e. are you incorrectly folding drawing hands when you have the odds to draw, or loosely calling when you don't have the odds)
(2) your table selection (i.e. are you at a table where you can profitably play a lot of drawing hands preflop and thereby increase the number of premium draws and hands you end up playing)
(3) the limit you are playing at (i.e. you are less likely to make premium hands in heads up pots that may not make it to the river, or for which you will be less likely to have odds to draw to gutshot/backdoor draws)

All that said, interesting thread!

[MyssGuy]

Thanks for the analysis. I don't know if I should thank you or not. I looked at my 10k hands. I'm apparently running hot at the premium hands. However, with the non-premium hands (specifically One Pair, Two Pair and Sets), I'm running cold with 40/52/65 respectively. I compared to joseski, as he was the closest to norm, to all three were low (he had 46.5/60/75.6). With these hands coming more frequently, I think this could be part of my cold streak. Make sense?

MyssGuy

[Surfbullet]

After checking my own stats, I seem to be about average on the premiums - though my full houses are doing a little better than normal win-% wise...

However, my 1-pair hands are almos 5% below where they should be...my winrate isn't spectacular over this stretch, and it makes me wonder if I may be taking too many 1-pair hands to showdown? Or if they're just a bit cold right now?

It seems that 4% of my 1-pair hands far outweighs 4% of my full house hands in terms of $ won/lost.

Surf

[sublime]

one last dumb question.

whe you are calculating how many 'premiums' you should have had over a set amounn of hands, do you use the amount of hands from the general info page or the one from the unchecked box on the misc stats tab.

thanks

[krishanleong]

[ QUOTE ]
one last dumb question.

whe you are calculating how many 'premiums' you should have had over a set amounn of hands, do you use the amount of hands from the general info page or the one from the unchecked box on the misc stats tab.

thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why they are different but I am using the number of hands in the misc tab. (Hands not folded UNCHECKED)

Krishan

[climber]

My first 5,420 Total Hands at 10/20 6MAX

Only not folded hands...

One Pair-323.........16.5%
Two Pair-215.........51%
Trips-57.............70%
Straight-58..........85%
Flush-46..............76%
Full-44...............86%

W$SD......50%

Anything I'm missing?
So your analysis would say I'm a giant lucksack in that I seem to have twice as many premiums as I should? Does having a higher (30ish) VP$IP explain getting more premiums?

[climber]

[ QUOTE ]

One Pair-323.........16.5%


[/ QUOTE ]

I think I found a leak! Doh!