Looking for a simple MLB totals formula?

[sportypicks.com]

Reed,

It will never solely put us on a play or off of a play. We try to figure out what role the park plays. If Cy Young was throwing during the day there the line might be more heavily skewed towards the under than the ballpark/pitcher warrant.
What we try to figure out is "What role does the ballpark play by itself?" That means if Joe Average pitcher was starting for Team A, Joe Average starting for team B, with both average bullpens, and average hitting for both teams...what impact does the ballpark have. Now apply this ballpark to whomever is actually starting, hitting, etc.
As far as how many over/unders there are, that doesn't really matter as the vegas total is a combination of many variables, one one of which is the ballpark.

[mrbaseball]

I use a simple formula for totals. But I wait at least until mid May to have enough data. I primarily look at median scores and calculate how many times the score has been over or under whatever the number is that day.

For example lets say the Tigers are playing the Red Sox in Boston and the line is 9 runs -110o/-110u. I will calculate the median score of games played in Boston. Then I will calculate the median score of Tigers road games. Then I will calculate the number of times Boston home games have gone over and under 9 and how many times Detroit road games have gone over or under 9. If I see there are a significant number of results over or under 9 I will then dig into the matchup and scheduled pitching to see if there is anything there to skew it one way or the other. Then I know if I have a bet or not.

I am mostly a sides guy but started this totals approach last season and it worked out pretty well. I was sorta surprised at how accurate it was and how spot on most totals lines were using this approach. But still there are usually 1 to 4 games a day where I could identify some edge.

[jmrogers7]

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Reed,

It will never solely put us on a play or off of a play. We try to figure out what role the park plays. If Cy Young was throwing during the day there the line might be more heavily skewed towards the under than the ballpark/pitcher warrant.
What we try to figure out is "What role does the ballpark play by itself?" That means if Joe Average pitcher was starting for Team A, Joe Average starting for team B, with both average bullpens, and average hitting for both teams...what impact does the ballpark have. Now apply this ballpark to whomever is actually starting, hitting, etc.
As far as how many over/unders there are, that doesn't really matter as the vegas total is a combination of many variables, one one of which is the ballpark.

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Totally agree. Perfect case in point, last night's Braves/Astros game. Astros park is a notorious hitter's park. However, 2 stud pitchers (Hudson/Clemens) pitched a 1-0 game.

Ballpark is a factor. Just weigh all other factors and remember that good pitching will shut down good hitting the vast majority of the time.

[mrbaseball]

Remember Nomo's no hitter? In Coors!

[The13atman]

How does one know how heavily to weight each one of the many factors that go into totals (teams, pitchers, ball park, umpires, streaks, etc)? It seems that there are so many things that go into a decision that it's hard to know how important each of the factors are relative to the others.

Also, it's easy to go under when both of the pitchers are great or over when they are both bad, but how about when a great pitcher is facing a bad pitcher? A mediocre pitcher? Or are these the types of games you just wanna stay away from altogether?

[jmrogers7]

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Also, it's easy to go under when both of the pitchers are great or over when they are both bad, but how about when a great pitcher is facing a bad pitcher? A mediocre pitcher? Or are these the types of games you just wanna stay away from altogether?

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I think that's what makes betting the totals interesting. When a good pitcher is going up against a mediocre pitcher you could end up having a 7-1 game but if the over under is 9 then you're still sitting pretty. Totals still give leeway for these types of situations.

[sportypicks.com]

"How does one know how heavily to weight each one of the many factors that go into totals (teams, pitchers, ball park, umpires, streaks, etc)? It seems that there are so many things that go into a decision that it's hard to know how important each of the factors are relative to the others"

That's the million dollar question which I'm sure you will get a million different answers to. Most people are too lazy to try and even attempt this and so they will ultimately fail at sports betting in the long run.

Other questions could be 1) How do variables correlate with one another 2) Are some variables even predictive in nature 3) etc.

There are always ways to improve handicapping methods which is why we are all here on this board.

[mrbaseball]

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How does one know how heavily to weight each one of the many factors that go into totals (teams, pitchers, ball park, umpires, streaks, etc)?

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Perhaps I'm too simplistic but I tend to ignore all of that for totals. I simply calculate "how many times it has happened" and see if that gives me an edge for the actual line. If so, I look at the specific matchup to see if there are any indications that this particular game should be pushed off of the norm. I also think offense needs to be looked at just as much as pitching. In all forms of baseball handicapping offense needs just as much attention as pitching but rarely gets it.

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Also, it's easy to go under when both of the pitchers are great or over when they are both bad,

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It is? These are generally reflected in the lines I think making it anything but easy in these situations. But too answer your question, in my method I usually stay away from games with ultra ace pitchers and try to concentrate on middle of the road, typical, average, major league fodder type of matchups as I feel they are more the norm. I will tend to avoid something like Santana vs Lima for example. There are lots of games. Stick with the easy ones.