Looking for a simple MLB totals formula?

[RaDiCaLReeD]

If anyone cares to share on how they decide MLB totals, I would like to compare and discuss which stats, trends, superstitions are the most important.

[Paluka]

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I would like to compare and discuss which superstitions are the most important.

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I'd like a transcript of these chats

[RaDiCaLReeD]

does anyone know of a past thread that might remotely give info towards BASIC MLB betting theorys? Hopefully Tech and the greats will be able to add substance to this subject.

[sportypicks.com]

It depends on what you mean by betting "theories". I may be in the minority but I don't buy into the systems of "wind blowing out in wrigley" play the over, etc. kind of theories.

If there are systems out there I like to quantify their impacts in numbers before incorporating them, because maybe people overvalue their impacts, who knows.

[tech]

I am in the process of moving and haven't been online a bunch. This article gives some basic ideas on betting MLB totals. These are just generalities.

The best ideas for betting MLB totals come from the structure of the game itself. Odd numbered totals are much more likely than evens. If you find a book where you can get on/off all numbers at the same price, you can sometimes find good value. Also, games in which road teams win tend to have higher totals than games in which home teams win. All these things are pretty straightforward if you follow baseball, but sometimes people don't think about them. Just those things right there are enough to beat MLB totals along with some basic knowledge of teams and pitchers.

[sportypicks.com]

"Also, games in which road teams win tend to have higher totals than games in which home teams win."

Great point Tech!!
I don't know why this isn't discussed more often. For example if a game has a total of 10, every half-inning counts and if the home team is more likely to win that half-inning never gets played.

[RaDiCaLReeD]

[ QUOTE ]
It depends on what you mean by betting "theories". I may be in the minority but I don't buy into the systems of "wind blowing out in wrigley" play the over, etc. kind of theories.

If there are systems out there I like to quantify their impacts in numbers before incorporating them, because maybe people overvalue their impacts, who knows.

[/ QUOTE ]

you hit it right on the head of what i was hoping to spark in discussion, but i guess more people are interested in posting thier picks, then get caught up in a discussion regarding sytems.

Thanks for your contribution!

[RaDiCaLReeD]

Good luck with move. Your MLB picks/analyst have been greatly missed lately.

Thank you for the link and the info. You always seem to educate me when I need it.

I thought this tread would have got more of a response, but I guess its all about fading and following picks these days.

I would like to see a balance here.

Until next time sportsfans .... onword & upword!

[sportypicks.com]

Radical,

A perfect example of what I'm talking about is the new ballpark in Philadelphia. I constantly hear "Hitters park", "balls fly out", etc from the announcers, baseball tonight, you name it.
So I went and looked into our numbers. Yes, the Phillies as a team hit more homeruns there, but as a general "Run-Producing" ballpark the park is just a little better than average. Nevermind that when a day-game or twilight game is played there the shadow completely covers the batters box making it that much harder to hit.

But when you watch TV they make it sound like a game in Philly is the equivalent of a little league field.

[RaDiCaLReeD]

quote:
" ... Nevermind that when a day-game or twilight game is played there the shadow completely covers the batters box making it that much harder to hit. "

Do you bet accordingly, knowing that the perception of the park is different and therefore the lines is higher than it should be?

What are the over / under #'s for that stadium for the past years?