Can you make good money at this?

[sportypicks.com]

Whiz,
First off, you are right in that 1000 games is not long-term and most handicappers will consider themselves long-term winners before even reaching that plateau. If you play a small number of games it can take a long time to even know if you are a long-term winner.

Second, I think you give the sportsbooks entirely too much credit when it comes to setting lines. There are hundreds of bets available every day when you include prop bets and all. There are many times when these lines are not even close to sharp. Of course, there is usually greater juice with these bets.

As an example, one of my best friends is a linesmaker for the Hilton Superbook out in Vegas. We usually talk about 3-4 times a week. There are certain sports and props that he is in charge of and I am AMAZED by the little amount of mathematics that goes into their setting of the lines. They do however have a good "feel" as for where the public is going to play and where the sharp players are going to play. They don't worry about the public's money at all, they just try to get the sharp players to play somewhere else. So they will shade their lines a half-cent more than other books on the strip.

Every once in a while a runner will come in a play a limit bet on a particular game. And I kid you not, I will get a phone call from him asking whether they should let the sharp hit it again or not, whether they should move the line, etc. I only help him because I am a friend, but as you can see they are very vulnerable. I usually joke with him that he is on the "dark-side" and I'm not here to help the enemy. As another poster put it, yes sometimes they are gambling too.

[WackityWhiz]

well put sporty, I obviously know very little about the sports gambling world so I'm obviously in the 'lucky' crowd when I happen to win. I guess I just feel that sports betting wouldn't be around unless most people lost in the long run. The best handicappers are around 55-60% (from what i've heard) and those people are the cream of the crop. I'm not a numbers guy but I know with the juice you have to win over 50% of the time to break even, not sure the number, but it's over 50% obviously. So if the best only get 10% higher than 50%, then the mediocre and the bad sports bettors have to be much lower than that. It just seems like the average person would have to take a risk in sportsbetting and make some big bets and hope for the best to have any chance at making some serious money.

[sportypicks.com]

Wacky,

The average player doesn't have to be lower than 50%, just lower than the break-even of 52.4% and it's not hard to be below that over the long-run. The sports book wants to grind YOU out as they do on all of there table games (bj, roulette, etc). You have to do the reverse and grind them out. The sports book also has the luxury of people chasing bets, doubling-up, etc.

I would say a GREAT sports bettor hits 54-58% long term and have yet to see anyone hit 60%. Remember, only the syndicate group back in the early 90's hit 60% at their PEAK, and the lines were alot softer back then.

[WackityWhiz]

good info to know... sounds like it's ALL IN time for me [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Reef]

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Ive read a few places that approximately 19 out of 20 poker players are losers in the long run (this seems like there are a lot of losers, maybe its truly not as bad, but Im sure its got to be close even if this number is wrong)

anywho, has anyone ever seen any type of similiar information tied into sports betting? (Might be hard info to gather, as lots of sports bettors dont make enough bets over a period of time to find a true long run result)

I would assume it would be something along the lines of the 19/20 losers like poker..

After about 5 months of betting on sports, im up very little.. which im happy with since i started off horribly and having to reload 3 times.

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I'd estimate 49 out of 50 poker players are losers. Maybe 99 out of 100. I'd estimate a very similar number for sports betting.

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no way.. PT has winners at ~40% for me over a huge database. The lowest true win rate I'd go with is 3 out of 10 winners.

[carapaced]

Also, sign up at TradeSports.com rather than a traditional sports book. Instead of the standard vig (10% or whatever), you pay around (1-2%). More fun, too.