Evil Flop part deux

[CallMeIshmael]

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There's no guarantee that BB is going to bet the turn, especially since he will have been called by both players on the flop.

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No, of course there is no guarentee. But, I think an unknown bets again a lot after he was just called here.

There are also some strategic advantages of raising the turn.

But, like I said, Im not married to either play.

[chesspain]

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No, of course there is no guarentee. But, I think an unknown bets again a lot after he was just called here.

There are also some strategic advantages of raising the turn.



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I don't like giving up an extra BB on the flop when we are almost certainly ahead, in favor of a maybe raise on the turn.

[Jim T]

"Im currently wavering between raising the flop, and raising a safe turn card."

I'd raise the flop because I don't want to be 3 bet on the turn. If he's still betting into you on the turn after you raised pre-flop and flop, I would either call down or fold.

[CallMeIshmael]

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I don't like giving up an extra BB on the flop when we are almost certainly ahead, in favor of a maybe raise on the turn.

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Neither do I, but this exact logic can be used against ALL wait until the turn type raises, right? In the example in SSHE, where hero has KK, he is probably ahead, and giving up a lot more than 2 sbs by waiting.

Again, I think the decision is close, but waiting does:

- Better protect our hand. It is incorrect for open enders to call the turn raise but not the flop raise (and, there are a ton of open enders out there)

- Push a bigger edge. We have more equity if the turn blanks than we have now.

- The information given to us if we are checked to on the turn after calling the flop is >>> than the information we get if checked to after raising the flop.

- Less likely to be checkraised if checked to than if we raised the flop.

- The information given in a 3-bet on the turn >> the information given in a 3-bet on the flop.

- Give us a better idea of where MP2 is. (this is a small advantage, but still one nonetheless). If he is sandbagging, and the turn goes: BB bets, MP2 raises, we can be pretty confident in a fold.

[oreogod]

Pop the flop. SB or MP2 are really the only ones u have to be worried about with that straight. Most likley u are either up against KJ, QJ or JT for two pair, its obvious BB hit his hand in some way, but if u raise the flop he could check it down (although if I had the two pair I wouldnt give u the free card thinking u had over-cards or an overpair, hopefully not JJ, but that would be easy to determine by the action.) If no one has hit their straight they probably either have one card straight draws or one card gutshots...either way no matter what u do in some way or another 3 out of 4 players will probably be going to the river. There are far to many draws out there.

I would be more worried about two pair and BB may want u to raise it to try and shut somebody out. Who knows.

Either way I pop up the flop and depending on the turn action decide if I either want to fold to a bet or call. (if u hit that flop and he comes right out and bets on the turn, u would probably be okay to fold...depending on the turn card and if u really felt u were behind the straight.)

Be more worried about one of the guys tagging along, they will let u know what they have on the turn, most times anyway.

[littlejohn]

I'm with ishmael here. There is a SSHE turn hand example where you have AQs with a flop of Q high but with flush and straight draws and the correct play is to wait for the turn. Now this example might be slightly different - but waiting for a safe turn card to raise definately protects your hand here.

[oreogod]

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There's no guarantee that BB is going to bet the turn, especially since he will have been called by both players on the flop.

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Most of the time he checks the turn (unless he has KQ), with two pair then calls it down, especially with this many in the pot (if it was heads up that would be different).

I think the best play is to pop the flop, if your raise is just called and a blank comes on the turn, bet, folding to a raise. If he three bets your raise, u can fold to a turn bet (u might be facing a raise behind u). Either way u dont really have to second guess your fold if the turn action suggests a straight, if not and u are behind two pair u have odds to see the river.

[shmahappens]

raise the flop, bet the turn and check the river was my initial idea. But based on his aggression factor I'm liking calling the flop and raising any non-scare card turn. Fold to a threebet of course, but if you raise the flop someone this agro will bluff at you on every street, and it's very hard to call that down.

[oreogod]

True, both ways cost about 2.5BBs (less if u raise the flop and he just calls and doesnt three bet) -- I do think to protect your hand better waiting till the turn might be best but as with many many players at these limits, they are probably going to the river regardless...waiting till the turn might be the correct play if u know BB will bet, but with 3 callers I dont think that is so certain.

[CallMeIshmael]

I agree with chesspain that a major fear is having the turn checked. BUT...

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Most of the time he checks the turn (unless he has KQ), with two pair then calls it down, especially with this many in the pot (if it was heads up that would be different).

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Is ridiculously untrue.

How can you say most players check two pair or a non nut straight on the turn here????? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]