KTo - Good river fold?

[ckessel]

Whoops, mean 9Ts and 89s.

Yea, I'm reasonably convinced you're right. Bet the turn and fold to a raise. The big thing to me here is pot size isn't really worth fighting strongly for. I'm not sure you're even going to win 1/3 of the hands at this point, so I don't see betting as for value either. If you're dead, no draw helps. If you're ahead then any 4-flush or 4-straight is a loser, and maybe any ace, so a bit over 1/3 of the cards. Are the odds of being ahead at the turn and not falling behind on the river better than the 33% you'd need to value bet? You'd need to be ahead at the turn more than 50%, I'm just not sure that's the case. But I suppose if it's close, error on the side of betting out the turn.

[Tiamat]

They do try outragouse bluffs in protected pots though in small games. You have top pair, You know nothing about your opponents. The pot is laying over 10-1 to call, so you need only win about 9% of the time to make a call profitable. therefore you have to be approx 91% sure of your read to fold here (and nobody is that good). He said he just sat down at the table and did not know the opponent. Will he lose, probably, but he will win 9% of the time though against most small stakes players. The pot justifies a call here. In limit holdem you frequently have to make these calls to save pots (on the river, other streets are a different story). He will lose but I doubt he will lose 9 times outta 10 makeing this call here against small stakes players.

[CallMeIshmael]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot is laying over 10-1 to call, so you need only win about 9% of the time to make a call profitable. therefore you have to be approx 91% sure of your read to fold here (and nobody is that good).

[/ QUOTE ]

Indeed, many people are this good.