KTo - Good river fold?

[adamstewart]

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I check/fold the turn.

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No lambasting here.... I'm in utter shock.


Adam

[einbert]

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I check/fold the turn

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If you figure out the percentage of time you're drawing dead, compared to the percentage of the time that you have the best hand, you're a huge favorite at this point to still be ahead.

Bet and let them pay you off with a worse kicker/middle pair/ a high diamond (which is definitely calling here). If one raises then you probably are drawing slim and can usually fold, depending on the pot odds you're getting.

[adamstewart]

I think this is a good disciplined fold on your part.


My only question is whether or not you're good here more than 8% of the time (1 in 12.5). Probably not, but then again, Harrington says they're bluffing at least 10% of the time. Overall, I don't think there's much difference in EV one way or the other.


FWIW, Ed Miller would probably call. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Adam

[einbert]

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My only question is whether or not you're good here more than 8% of the time (1 in 12.5). Probably not, but then again, Harrington says they're bluffing at least 10% of the time.

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I think that you can pretty much discount the possibility that this guy is on a bluff because the BB has already called your bet and it is VERY rare that LP will raise and you both will fold.

Also, the average player is certainly not raising any worse hand than yours on this board for value. He simply has a better hand than yours, IMO.

If the pot were about twice as big I would start considering a call.

[adamstewart]

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I think that you can pretty much discount the possibility that this guy is on a bluff because the BB has already called your bet and it is VERY rare that LP will raise and you both will fold.

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an important point.... yes, this is definitely a fold.


Adam

[ckessel]

With 2 people passively calling the flop I'm putting one or both of them on a draw. That 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] completes both. Neither raised the turn, which is a little odd, but a flush may easily wait until the river to raise (which happened) and a straight is going to be cautious due to the flush.

Normally I'm pretty aggressive with top pair on the turn and maybe I'd bet this and fold to a raise. But I just keep looking at that tiny pot and wondering if I really feel I'm going to win this enough to make it worthwhile.

[tipperdog]

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I'll probably be lambasted, but the turn card is terrible for you.


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OK, I'll start the lambasting. You are ahead of a wide variety of hands that will call here: JT, QT, A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x, etc. You cannot conclude from two flop calls that your opponents are drawing. They may simply have pairs they're not too excited about.

The worst part about checking is that you give free cards to a wide variety of drawing hands. Right now, you're ahead of any stray diamond, and a multitude of straight draws. Giving a free card in this situation is crazy.

Now, you could make a very strong argument for betting the turn and folding if raised, but check-folding is way too weak.

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you lose to a flush or a straight and anyone that called with JTs or T9s.


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Actually, you are ahead of any JTs and QTs. That's precisely why you need to bet.

[Tiamat]

So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

you were aggressive the entire hand with bets. To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands. you do not know these players at all. To fold for one more bet on the river here is a bit weak IMO. Yes there is a caller and a logical player will not bluff into a bettor and a caller, but most small stakes players are NOT logical and try bluffs and raises with all types of strange holdings. It was one bet back to you, I know I can not be over 90% sure here on a hand read, you will probably lose but its worth a call.

[adamstewart]

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So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

you were aggressive the entire hand with bets. To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands. you do not know these players at all. To fold for one more bet on the river here is a bit weak IMO. Yes there is a caller and a logical player will not bluff into a bettor and a caller, but most small stakes players are NOT logical and try bluffs and raises with all types of strange holdings. It was one bet back to you, I know I can not be over 90% sure here on a hand read, you will probably lose but its worth a call.

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I'm saying that I doubt Hero is good more than 1 in 12.5 times here (considering all that has already been mentioned). Therefore, calling would be -EV.

Yes, "Hero was aggressive the entire hand thus far." AND YET HE'S STILL BEING RAISED! More reason to fold.

Am I worried that people will notice and start to take shots at me? No. I don't usually fold for 1 bet on the river, so I'm not setting any sort of trend by folding this one particular hand....


I think you're misapplying some of the concepts you're read in those "books" you mentioned in a previous thread ....


FWIW, I said in my previous response that this was a CLOSE decision. But I lean towards folding.

Adam

[einbert]

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So you are saying you are 90% certain on a hand read here in a table you just sat down at? calling at most will cost you one more bet. If your wrong you lose the pot. yes it is small and you will probly loose it but i'll mention one reason to call not yet mentioned.

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You really need to think about the percentage of the time that all these events line up. Yes, it will happen. But will it happen one time in twelve? Not in my opinion. Maybe one time in twenty-five, or thirty. Seriously, think about this mathematically and try to figure out exactly how big the pot would be for you to call this bet profitably.

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To fold for one more bet on the river may be noticable to some players and they will start to take shots at you in later hands.

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This is why we don't fold for one bet on the river in a big pot heads up. If they want to try a ridiculous bluff in a protected pot (and in a pot that's not even huge), then I'm not going to play the sheriff. The other guy can (and usually will) call them down, and often with a worse hand than mine!