AQs -- huge pot, what is the right line on the turn?

[adamstewart]

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It's not 'Gambool' if the odds justify it.

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Okay, and how does this apply to this situation?

Catch-

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Try reading some of the other posts in this thread.

Adam

[cbragado]

I like calling on the flop, and keeping the cost of playing down. You're likely beat and possibly in two spots. A free card play won't work against a good player holding top pair. They'll either call the raise and bet into you on the turn or they'll reraise and continue making you pay to draw.

I like calling on the turn because again you open the betting for a reraise, thus increasing your cost to draw. I would've played more passively with my ace overcard and backdoor nut flush draw to increase my effective odds on the hand.

That being said, I hope you got there...

Regards,
Ches

[StellarWind]

I count 1.5 outs for the backdoor flush and 0.5 outs for the backdoor Broadway.

The ace overcard is clouded three ways:

1. UTG+2 or SB may dominate or reverse dominate it.

2. SB calling cold and then leading out on this drawless flop could easily be a set or two pair.

3. It's going to be hard to draw an ace when the 6-way raised preflop screams that people already have most of them.

I'll give you 1 out for the ace. That's 3 outs total. Roughly breakeven to call two bets cold at 28-2. Your implied odds aren't worth much because of the reliance on an ace overcard. Also 28-2 offers only half the implied odds that 14-1 would. I think players sometimes overlook this point.

The real problem with calling the flop is *not* right here:

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UTG+2 was like a 40 vpip with about 15% PFR.

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Your head is turned the wrong way. The danger opponent on this hand is not UTG+2. The crucial player is SB and he is so far off your radar screen you didn't even bother to excuse not describing him by saying "unknown".

The flop is K95r and he led into a capped 6-player field including two PFRs. Why would he do that?

1. He's a complete idiot. Well, that's always possible.

2. He has a very good hand and likely intends to 3-bet.

Of course his 3-bet could easily be capped because either 1) UTG+2 is peddling rockets/cowboys or 2) UTG+2 is an action player who does stuff like that for fun. All current evidence points to at least one of these being true.

This draw provides no overlay for paying 3-4 bets to see the turn and yet that is quite likely. That's why the flop call is bad.

[adamstewart]

as always.... excellent post.


Adam

[brazilio]

Standard for a no-hole bd straight is 1.5 outs, if I remember correctly. 2 holes are .5 outs, 1 hole is 1 out.

[MainEvent]

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Standard for a no-hole bd straight is 1.5 outs, if I remember correctly. 2 holes are .5 outs, 1 hole is 1 out.

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But the straight draw isn't open on the top end. He needs to catch exactly the 10 and J to make his straight....thus you can't count the straight draw as the 1.5 out variety.

[meep_42]

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Standard for a no-hole bd straight is 1.5 outs, if I remember correctly. 2 holes are .5 outs, 1 hole is 1 out.

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8 cards (J's, T's) give you 4 outs (the other of the J's, T's), so 8/46 times you get 4 outs, (8*4)/46 = 0.7 outs, closer to 0.5, since you'll probably split.

-d

[StellarWind]

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Standard for a no-hole bd straight is 1.5 outs, if I remember correctly. 2 holes are .5 outs, 1 hole is 1 out.

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The standard rule of thumb is 0.5 outs for each different way of making the backdoor straight.

Three way examples:

987: JT, T6, 65
J875: T9, 96, 64
AQT86: KJ, J9, 97

Two way examples:

T97: J8, 86
AKQ42: JT, 53

One way examples:

AKQ: JT
864: 75

Each way of making the straight adds approximately the same amount of EV to a flop call as 0.5 outs would. This includes a built-in allowance for occasionally losing an extra bet when you turn the draw but bust on the river.

If you have a river-committed draw and are considering value betting the flop, the backdoor straight draw is worth 1/3 out for each way you can complete it.