AQs -- huge pot, what is the right line on the turn?

[cflynn]

This pot was so big pre-flop that I lost my mind. UTG+2 was like a 40 vpip with about 15% PFR. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG+2 (poster) checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (24 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP2 calls, MP3 folds, SB calls, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls, SB calls.

3 bet here hoping to fold some people out, try for the old free card on the turn.

Turn: (20.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, SB calls, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>?????

Should I raise here for value (is my math wrong?) or just call?

[Catch of the Day]

I think you should fold the flop. You are drawing VERY thin. But if you insist on playing, then okay three bet. I would raise the turn too in that situation to trap the field for more bets.

Catch-

[ArturiusX]

I think your 3-bet is a bit of a spew, honestly.

[FoodForThought]

You missed the flop so your hand is not that good. However, the pot is very large with large implied odds, so I do not fold on the flop. However, three betting is clearly wrong. A free card raise will not work here with all the action, the number of players, and your position. More importantly, you do not want to knock out any players. You have to go runner runner for the nuts (unless board pairs)...why knock out players? You will not buy yourself any outs by doing so. So, just call the flop and continue if you turn a straight or flush draw (assuming odds for belly draw).

[All-In]

You're playing like a maniac. 3-bet the flop with one overcard and back-door flush? The turn raise is not necessary bad but of course you realize it's probably going to be capped back to you.

[FoodForThought]

PS....Do not raise the turn. You only have three callers and are 4 to 1 to make your flush. Also, MP2 may three bet. Just check and call the turn.

[KDawgCometh]

I think your implied odds w/backdoor straight and nut flush draws w/the one overcard that may or may not be clean that calling is you best option, and then decide what to do on the turn

[Catch of the Day]

[ QUOTE ]
the pot is very large with large implied odds, so I do not fold on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. I hate the whole large pot, implied odds, Gambool type mentality. 2.5 outs to the winner? no thanks.

And who cares is the turn gets capped after the poor flop play? By this time the pot is big enough to justify a raise. Even if it comes back capped, you don't hate it.

[edit: I thought there was 5 players, soo whoops...]

Catch-

[adamstewart]

Preflop: standard (and yes, capping with AQs is standard because there are 5 others in this pot).

Flop:

Do not fold. Do not raise. UTG+2 was the only preflop aggresser, so it's unlikely that the pot will get 3-bet behind you. When the action comes to you, you can count on at least 30 bets in this pot. You're going to have to call two bets, though, but you'll be getting at least 15:1 money. You have approximately 3 effective outs, with your two backdoor straight and flush draws and the slight chance a pair ace comes. You also have the potential implied odds in this large pot.

I think you should call the flop.


TURN:

Call the turn - go for the overcalls on your draw. You have a 20% chance of completing your nut flush draw. But there are only 4 in this pot. So you don't have the equity to raise here. (100 divided by 4 = 25%, so your chance of completing your draw is less than that).


FWIW, the flop call is very marginal in my opinion, so there's probably not much difference between calling and folding.

Adam

[cnfuzzd]

i hate the flop 3bet. I dont mind so much carrying on with this hand, but it makes absolutely no sense to 3bet the flop, as it will NEVER buy you outs, and will ALWAYS come back capped.

call the turn.

peace

john nickle