Bubble AK hand - Page 3

Sunshine · #21 04-10-2005, 01:11 AM

wow, this is a great thread, I've been playing single-table tourneys and have been comming in 4th quite abit (4th or greater ~60% of the time) and have never 'pulled back' on the reigns, so playing to get into the $$ has great merit

microbet · #22 04-10-2005, 01:16 AM

I see your point, but are you sure a push is +EV for UTG?

microbet · #23 04-10-2005, 01:19 AM

Well, don't over-generalize this situation. There is not always a very tiny stack on the bubble.

Gramps · #24 04-10-2005, 01:38 AM

I'd push if in doubt, though I don't think it's a clear call either way. Actually, I think it's pretty damn even.

It'd take a very loose BB to call 100% of the time - more likely he's going to fold some of his trash hands (which you really want him folding, it's the Ax and Kx hands you don't mind him calling with as much). Pushing and folding BB gets you to 1695 - you have a bit of fold equity which you don't really have if you fold. Of course, if UTG makes it through the blinds, you're probably going to fold that fold equity right back away...

What's tough is even if you get called and win, you're still 3rd chip stack. Good thing is you now have 2590 and are in the mix for 2nd or 1st...but putting your likely 20% payout at risk is a high price to pay for a roughly 65% shot (AKo vs. random hand) at doubling up.

If you fold, you have 1095...if UTG wins his all-in in the BB, you may get chipped down pretty goot. One good thing is if you pick up a decent hand next hand, you don't have to fear pushing (since if either big stack calls you, short stack will have to beat you both, and you'll have to finish last to get 4th place). And, he'll probably have to make it through the blinds twice to survive long enough to have a shot at 3rd.

I must be going through a weak-tight stretch. I'm starting to think fold. The reward really doesn't kick arse enough to justify the risk. If you get called and win, what's your prize pool expectation, like 30%? If you fold, while you will get 4th on occassion, you'll also come back and get a few 2nds and once in a while a 1st - I'd guess your expectation is > 20% by folding. Of course you have to add in the % of the time BB just folds giving you chips, and what that does to your prize pool expectations vs. you folding your AK, etc., ow, ow, my head is starting to hurt...

Ramble, ramble, ramble...

I think a push or fold is fine.

Benholio · #25 04-10-2005, 01:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I see your point, but are you sure a push is +EV for UTG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Well, actually if you split the suits up just right, you might be able to make it -0.001% CEV or something. :P I was throwing hands into twodimes.net calculator to try and find three really even hands for this purpose. :P

JasonP530 · #26 04-10-2005, 01:52 AM

I dont mind a push here. The BB will likely not call with any two for 900 more, and will fold some hands you want him to fold(that are only 2-1 underdogs). If UTG survives, the blinds will cripple you when it comes around, I dont think thats right. I dont think the BB will call off with any two, and if he does, you will be much better off going for first with a larger stack. Anyone agree?

JasonP530 · #27 04-10-2005, 01:54 AM

Incidentally, how would you play it if you had 3000 or so in the SB instead of the other large stack. Would you be more or less likely to push into the BB and his big stack?

Scuba Chuck · #28 04-10-2005, 03:00 AM

I didn't say that villain was loose. I said villain is smart, and will make calls. My opinion is that he would call with top 3 hands.

Scuba Chuck · #29 04-10-2005, 03:04 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, how would you play it if you had 3000 or so in the SB instead of the other large stack. Would you be more or less likely to push into the BB and his big stack?

[/ QUOTE ]

That changes thing significantly. BB now runs into risk of ruin. I'm just saying that in this situation, my stack is just small enough (any larger, and that changes the landscape) to call.

prepotency · #30 04-10-2005, 03:57 AM

Honestly, it may not be conventional but I'd just call the SB and hope BB checks it. Personally, I consider my AKo as a flop hand this late in the tournament. If the BB raises all-in, I'd be pissed off but I'd still fold I think. IMO this hand is worth the 200 on a chance that you're seeing the flop. If you are forced to, slipping into third is probably your best option here.

Another thought: If you have to fold and the short stack gets lucky and doubles up, you will get the chance to push him for his stack when you're on the button and he's BB. I think the big stack will have less incentive to call an all-in (and you are likely to steal) because he's potentially going against two hands instead of one.

Maybe the big stack will just evsicerate you all, who knows? Thoughts?