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#11
04-07-2005, 08:27 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is why I always get up from a poker game after being dealt aces. What are the odds I'm going to get aces twice, ya know? [/ QUOTE ] (* yes, this is off topic *) I do not mean to be rude ... but cards is a much different animal. Just because you get AA, does not mean you'll win. More so, it does not mean that you will not get them again soon. Nor does not mean you can not win again. I understand your logic - jumping off a team that scored that 9 runs. I have seen people love grabbing a team or betting the over after a team is shut out. [/ QUOTE ] Though I haven't done any studies myself nor read any, I strongly believe that this strategy is incorrect, just as it is in poker. The only way I could see this working is if other people actually bet the other way because of the last game, thinking that the team was "hot" or "cold". 
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#12
04-07-2005, 09:34 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
[ QUOTE ]
Though I haven't done any studies myself nor read any, I strongly believe that this strategy is incorrect, just as it is in poker. [/ QUOTE ] This strategy is obviously incorrect. This is why sportsbooks make so much money. People sit around all day coming up with random reasons to bet certain games.
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#15
04-07-2005, 10:59 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
Damn. As a Royals season ticket holder I was hoping to get this pick out there first. Greinke is a special pitcher. Last year his biggest problem was that the team never seemed to give him any run support. He lost a lot of games 1-0, 2-1. I think the royals put a few on the board today and get him off to a good start for the year also.
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#16
04-07-2005, 11:03 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
In my opinion the Indians vc White Sox game is similar to our Beckett -1.5 discussion from Monday. I think Cle and Chi are equally bad and give the nod to Cliff Lee on the mound. You have no idea which Jose Contreras will show up today. Cleveland's bullpen is awful. Although I think they may win, there might be more value in White Sox -1.5 at +170. Am I way off or does this make sense? I think an extra run is highly likely with Cleveland's shaky pen.
Also, with regard to the Royals I am not betting based on their 9 runs the previous day. So far the Tigers have had a great outing from Bonderman and a 3 dinger game from Dmitri Young. Then they follow it up with a poor outing from Maroth. With the added possibility that Magglio doesn't play or is less than 100% I like Royals +130. Hombre
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#19
04-07-2005, 11:20 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
[ QUOTE ]
I do not mean to be rude ... but cards is a much different animal. Just because you get AA, does not mean you'll win. More so, it does not mean that you will not get them again soon. Nor does not mean you can not win again. [/ QUOTE ] You need to send your sarcasm detector in for repairs. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] To check whether or not it is fixed, read the last 50 of Paluka's posts in this and the stock market forum.
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#20
04-07-2005, 11:24 AM
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Re: MLB Thursday 4/7
I was responding to your earlier post where you made the analogy, albeit a poor one, to being dealt pocket Aces and leaving the table. "What are the odds I'm going to get aces twice, ya know". I don't see the correlation to the runs total for KC from yesterday to today. Jeez, Marlins put up 9 when Smoltz starts and 1 when Hampton starts. I don't know if their offense has "enough" after scoring 9 yesterday but I don't see the analogy to KC's performance yesterday and AA. The Royals don't need 9 runs and I have won a lot of big pots with J-10, 55, and 78s. Is that clear as mud? Are you only going to bet baseball games when one of the top 5 starters in baseball is pitching? That would be equivalent to limiting your hands to AA-JJ and AKs. In most games you would be missing out on a lot of money. In some games you may actually lose money. Hombre
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