Who gonna call you?

[QTip]

I gave this a lot of thought last night...hopefully all the players are still sitting around at the table waiting for my decision after the dealer has been giving me warnings for 24 hours....

I've change to a call from when I was saying fold...here's why.

I own at least 2.5 sb in this pot, and I only have to pay 1 for certain to stay in...

I still don't like my hand and I believe my reverse implied odds are menacing; however, it's not time to give up yet...

Thanks for the hand Jason.

[einbert]

[ QUOTE ]
I own at least 2.5 sb in this pot, and I only have to pay 1 for certain to stay in...

[/ QUOTE ]

How do you figure? If BB holds JcJs we own way less than 2.5 sb of the pot.

BTW I agree that calling the flop is best.

[QTip]

JJ! That's a monster in the bed right now...

With the range of hands we gave BB yesterday (AA-JJ, AKs-AJs,AKos - we didn't include KQ because we had no read - obviously his raise with KQo we would need to expand this range now, but we didn't know that yesterday) and a couple of random hands, we had about 24% pot equity.

When the hand gets to us on the flop, it's 11 sb. I'm thinking 24% of 11 is a little over 2.5 sb. We only have to pay 1 to protect our portion of the pot.

I believe this is a correct line of thought. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Thanks.

[einbert]

Well I guess it was just wording. You own an average of 2.5 SB, but sometimes you own a lot more than that and somtimes you own virtually none of it (you can be drawing completely dead against JcJs and someone else holding a 7).

Anyway just being a good oldfashioned nit ^^.

[DeeJ]

Looks like a boring hand to me. Anyone else got any comments? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

FWIW, I play it the same. The pot is big enough for high cards, and 1-card-crub flushes to try to draw out on each other...

[somapopper]

[ QUOTE ]
Have to agree here. The field is large enough that someone is likely to hold a Jack

[/ QUOTE ]

actually, against 3 random hands, I believe someone will only be holding a j 33.63% of the time:

1-((45/48)(44/47)(43/46)(42/45)(41/44)(40/43))

True, hands w/ J's in them are more likely to play, but they're not exactly aces.

P.S.- is my math right, and is there an easier way to do this without some kind of program? My stats is a little rusty.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I gave this a lot of thought last night...hopefully all the players are still sitting around at the table waiting for my decision after the dealer has been giving me warnings for 24 hours....

I've change to a call from when I was saying fold...here's why.

I own at least 2.5 sb in this pot, and I only have to pay 1 for certain to stay in...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a key point. By folding, we are leaving money a lot of money on the table.

[ QUOTE ]
I still don't like my hand and I believe my reverse implied odds are menacing; however, it's not time to give up yet...

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't have to commit ourselves to a showdown.

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for the hand Jason.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for thinking about it and being in the discussion.

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

How do you figure? If BB holds JcJs we own way less than 2.5 sb of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

On average.

[suspicious_mind]

" LOL!! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img] "

So I'm assuming you mean that A6 and 78 are common calling hands here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] or where you just laughing at me? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I've been playing this real tight game lately so I'm not really used to people calling with stuff like that. I think I need some help with game selection..

About my post I'm not sure how much of it made sense, I was pretty tired when I wrote it just having played a 24h+ session. I really need to stop doing that [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]