68o BB hand

[mikelow]

I would raise the river. Given that the guy with Q [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] J [img]/forums/images/icons/club.gif[/img] was going to fold anyway, you might as well extract another bet LP. I doubt he has a full house or J-8.

[Ulysses]

LP took it down w/ 55.

[Pot-A]

OK, I'm not really sure why you called this on the flop. Do you really have pot odds to draw for three cards (assuming 7s is not a card you're happy to see) that might give you a vulnerable second-best hand? I would have pitched it on the flop.

[Ulysses]

I felt the flop was a very easy call. I have 12-1 pot odds and definitely the implied odds to call. I have 3 outs to what are effectively the nuts and no reason not to like the 7 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] until someone tells me otherwise.

[Pot-A]

Yes, you have 12-1 odds. It's still only a valid call if you figure to win if your draw hits. In this case you'll have to adjust your odds downward considerably because of the flush draw and because you can still lose to a bigger straight.

Implied odds work both ways. Do you intend to fold if the third spade falls?

[Ulysses]

It's still only a valid call if you figure to win if your draw hits.

Well, I called precisely because I figured to win if my draw hit. Otherwise, I would have folded.

In this case you'll have to adjust your odds downward considerably because of the flush draw and because you can still lose to a bigger straight.

Downward, yes. Considerably, why? I've already posted above why I'm pretty sure that J8 isn't out there. When it comes to me on the flop, exactly one player, MP, could possibly have J8. Exactly two players (UTG and MP) might be on the flush draw. What do you think the chances are that my opponents have these hands (J8 or two spades)? What makes you think that?

Implied odds work both ways. Do you intend to fold if the third spade falls?

If it's not a seven and someone bets, yes.

If it's not a seven and nobody bets, no.

If it's a seven and UTG bets out, possibly.

If it's a seven and UTG bets and MP or LP raises, I fold.

If it's a seven and MP bets and LP calls I'm very likely to raise.

If it's a seven and MP bets and LP raises, I'm very likely to 3-bet.

[Ed S.]

Nice double gut-shot draw. I would of done everything the same except for I might of raise but I know that 10 was a bit scary....but honestly only thing that could of killed you in that game with the players left was 10,9. Since you are tied to the pot put an extra bet in on the river. Yes you may lose the extra bets on the end but I think that by maximizing the bets on the end in the lo ng run will far exceed the losses that you would take in the same situation.


But I could understad why you would call, but press it on the end in if your pretty much sure you have it because your gut instinct is usually right.


Ed S.

[amtannn]

I'm new at this so give me a brake if I get it wrong.

The money in the pot is 12:1. You have 4 outs to make your straight so the odds of hitting it on the turn are 11:1. While this gives you a slight advantage, it does not consider that you may not win with your straight (for example to a flush). Thus, I would imagine that your implied odds are actually worse than 12:1.

You may think, what about the river card? Well, assuming you havent hit your straight on the turn, the odds will be very much against you. With your call on the flop there is $195 (13 bets for $15) in the pot. Because the turn bet is now $30, without any more money in the pot your looking at 195:30 or 6.5:1. The odds of hitting your river card is 10.5:1. Therefore, you would need at least $315 in the pot to make the bet. That requires 4 bets to call. So I guess if, on the flop, you expected at least 4 bets on the turn then it was an ok play. Not a slam dunk.

[Tommy Angelo]

"9 see the flop."

Artichoke Standard.

I would have done two things differently than you did. I would have folded on the flop. And I'd bet the river.

I think the river bet's value on this hand is almost entirely determined by the ability to correctly fold if raised. Let's say our folds against this opponent are guarenteed to be 100% correct. That would mean that betting the river would be a surefire winning play, right? And if we never find the right play if we get raised, then betting would be a very bad choice. Somewhere in between is reality, and I think that given the action so far, and the board, that folding to a river-raise would be right against almost all opponents, almost all the time, and that's why I'd bet the river.

As to folding on the flop, I would welcome the opportunity to abort this middle-card UTG yucko situation.

Tommy

[Pot-A]

Downward, yes. Considerably, why? I've already posted above why I'm pretty sure that J8 isn't out there. When it comes to me on the flop, exactly one player, MP, could possibly have J8. Exactly two players (UTG and MP) might be on the flush draw. What do you think the chances are that my opponents have these hands (J8 or two spades)? What makes you think that?

You had nine people see the flop. The chances you'll be facing a flush draw, a set, JQ, two pair, or a combination of the four are excellent. If they hit you're dead. If you hit the turn they still have a redraw.

Also, you describe LP as a super-aggressive loose cannon, yet it doesn't pique your interest when she doesn't raise the flop? You know here better than I do, but I'm guessing T7o she'd either raise on the flop or fold. In fact, an agressive player in this position is gonna start shooting if she has any weak hand that's probably good on the flop.

The question is, would she really sit in LP with a draw and not try to buy a free turn card?

So if she doesn't have a draw and she doesn't have a made, but vulnerable, hand (like two pair or top pair with a decent kicker), what will she smooth call without folding? A set or J [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/forums/images/icons/spade.gif[/img] become a real possibility. Unless she just flipped and decided to become a calling station this hand.