Four Choices

[astroglide]

you never finished the conversation in the 'always raising' thread david

[Ginogino]

David:
To begin with, I'd assume that he has a pair of K's (or better). To beat him, then, you need one of two things to happen: you must get him to fold his hand, or you must outdraw him on the river.

To outdraw him you must catch one of your open-ended straight cards (8 outs, maybe) or your flush (7 more outs, maybe). Your potential straight with the ten is possibly beaten if he holds QJ himself (though would a "slightly" weak-tight player open-limp with QJo? with QJs? -- perhaps the latter). Your potential flush is compromised if he holds a club himself (if he holds two clubs and you bet you'll lose, but stuff happens). If he holds a club, chances are his club is higher than yours (inference drawn from his open limp in presumably early position -- he's the "first limper" but you didn't exactly say how early his position is). You have 7 outs for the flush draw, giving you 15 outs if he doesn't hold anything that compromises them. He could have 2 pair or a set with outs to a full house. I'd approximate your chances of outdrawing him as something like 20%, all things considered.

There are 3.5 big bets in the pot as you face your turn decision. If you check-call the expected turn bet, you'd be getting close to the right odds to take a card off (there would be 4.5 bb in the pot when you call his turn bet, and if you hit he might well call a river bet).

If you lead bet the turn, what are the chances he folds? Also, if you lead bet the turn, what are the chances he raises, and what do you do then? If you bet and he raises, what does the raise mean (2 pair? a set? a flush with Ax of clubs?). Chances are that if you lead bet the turn, he either folds or calls (odds are against him holding enough to cause him to raise), so in the large majority of cases it costs the same as check-calling with the added bonus that he might fold (the classic semi-bluff).

There are too many branches here for my brain to grapple with in mathematical terms, but it seems to me that, depending on how weak-tight this player is, you gain more than you lose over the long run by lead betting here.

What about the check-raise? If you check-raise you are giving him better pot odds on calling your raise than you are by lead betting (6.5/1 vs. 4.5/1), and I don't think you are representing a better hand with a check-raise than you are with a lead bet, given your check-call on the flop, but I'd listen to argument on that.

I'd lead bet the turn. If raised, I'd call and take a look at the river card.

Gino

[Vince Lepore]

1)Check with intention of folding.

2)Bet with intention of folding to a raise.

Vince

[DanZ]

bet turn and fold to a raise.

[D.J.]

Check-raise and fold to a 3-bet. If no club falls on the river bet, and if another comes check.

-D.J.

[CreamPuff]

Betting the turn is not a good play IMO, since the chance of
a semi-bluff working is basically nill vs a weak tight
player that bet this flop from EP (About the only hand
he could conceivable have bet and now fold is 99 or TT)

Folding before seeing the river card is NOT an option.
I would be more inclined to fold on the turn if there
was another caller indicating an increased likelihood
of a flush draw being out.


Therefore the logical turn play is to check/call.

If he checks, always bet the river unless you pair up.
If you make your str and a club at the same time,
you can either check and call or bet and fold if raised
(I would check/call).

IF he BETS the turn, you can bluff the river if a club falls,
if you think he can make GOOD laydowns.

***********
Concerning betting the turn since your opp will unlikely
raise (because of weak tightness) and could fold:
If you think about the future action that I just described,
it will be much harder to bluff the river either when he
checks the turn, or he bets the turn and a club hits the river.
(Actually if you lead and he calls, you will have
no idea where he is at and this will cost you in the long-run, since you will
almost always be committed to a river bet)

[Clarkmeister]

I don't care what you do as long as you don't fold.

[cero_z]

"I'd lead bet the turn. If raised, I'd call and take a look at the river card."
Gino,
Remember that we're facing a weak-tight opponent. Given that, I agree that he has at least one pair (not necessarily kings)to lead on the flop with. However, if you bet and are raised, it's time to go. A weak tight player staring at a 3-flush on board won't raise without a VERY strong hand. But, he also won't be able to get away from a pair of kings. So, I would check, and expect him to check behind me, in fear of a check-raise. If he bets again, I would usually fold. This is all contingent on my analysis of this player as timid but fairly glued to his hand. Against a good player (capable of laying down a king) or an aggressive player (likely to have little), I would check-raise bluff, and fire the last barrel on the river.
See you,
Cero

[Ginogino]

Cero:
I believe that everyone - you and me included - is making too much of David's description of the table as "slightly weak-tight". While I agree with your strategy against the typical weak-tight opponent, I'm not at all sure that David's hypothetical opponent fits in that category. If, say, he doesn't have K's but some other pair (besides AA, and his pre-flop betting argues strongly against this), what pair does he hold that he'd limp with pre-flop but lead bet on the flop? Would he limp pre flop with QQ or JJ? He could have JJ or tens, I suppose. If he holds pocket 9's or 8's (and flops a set), how likely is it that he'd lead bet the flop instead of going for a checkraise on the turn?

Checkraising the turn (if he bets after you check) and firing the other barrel on the river should a blank hit seems to me to give you little extra chance of winning at a substantially higher cost relative to the size of the pot right now. I have trouble coming up with more than a very few hands that he could have bet in this manner that he'd lay down here, and the size of the pot at the time you face your turn decision (7 small bets) doesn't give you a great deal of overlay.

But, then again, I've been wrong before.

Gino

[Penguin]

I check with the intention of raising.

Given the description of the opponent as being slightly weak tight, his most likely holding is a K. Assuming he bets, I am going to call anyway, and I can increase my possibility of winning by representing the clubs and creating the possibility that he might fold to the check raise, since he may do this with a K.