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#12
03-29-2005, 10:42 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
I'd agree that it's a lot easier to fold the QQ than the set in those circumstances. What are the stats on an A or K falling on a flop? I think it's something like 66% of the time one of them will fall? I'll fold to a bet with an A out there every time, and a K 99% of the time, if someone else raised preflop. If I call a raise preflop with QQ, I'm pretty much calling for set value. If there's no A or K on the flop, that's sort of a bonus, but not what I'm expecting or banking on.
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#13
03-29-2005, 10:47 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
I think that is a definate fold. What are you ahead of right now JJ TT AK? Unless it is a real loose player, very rarely do people go back over the top with JJ and TT. You have to strongly believe that this is a AK and not AA and KK.
-Gryph
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#14
03-29-2005, 10:57 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd agree that it's a lot easier to fold the QQ than the set in those circumstances. What are the stats on an A or K falling on a flop? I think it's something like 66% of the time one of them will fall? I'll fold to a bet with an A out there every time, and a K 99% of the time, if someone else raised preflop. If I call a raise preflop with QQ, I'm pretty much calling for set value. If there's no A or K on the flop, that's sort of a bonus, but not what I'm expecting or banking on. [/ QUOTE ] 66% is high. When you hold AK you can expect to hit either an A or K or better about 1/3 of the time.
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#15
03-29-2005, 11:05 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
[ QUOTE ]
I hit a set of 6s and was beat by a set of Queens. [/ QUOTE ] There are very, very few situations where you could make a safe enough read to lay that set down. I don't know the particular circumstances, but often it's just tough luck. [ QUOTE ] I have a pair of queens and get re-raised all-in preflop. Naturally, he has aces. I figured he had aces. I just couldn't lay it down. [/ QUOTE ] That one you should be able to get away from if the stacks are any deep. I lay those down about 50-60% of the time, and working on laying down some more, because I still get shown AA and KK too often for my own good. Keep in mind that this situation is strongly read-dependent. [ QUOTE ] How often do you think you are up against a higher set? [/ QUOTE ] At NL25-50-100, I can't remember the last time that thought crossed my mind, seriously.
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#16
03-29-2005, 11:05 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
Yes...Jhall23's right.
Math: Figure a flop that DOESN't hit you y = ([44/50) * (43/49) * (42/48)] = 79464/117600 = ~.67 Now, do x = 1 - y, where x is the percentage that you will get AT LEAST a A or a K on the flop. x = ~.36 or 1:2 odds against. -Gryph
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#17
03-29-2005, 11:10 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
[ QUOTE ]
I have a pair of queens and get re-raised all-in preflop. Naturally, he has aces. I figured he had aces. I just couldn't lay it down. [/ QUOTE ] As others have said, this is very read dependant. You'll be amazed my how many idiots go all-in with Axs pre-flop. On the other hand laying it down can be right many times. I have even managed to (correctly) lay down KK pre-flop. All depends on the read of the other player. Remember, we are talking percentages not a specific hand. If this player is regularly going all-in with marginal hands pre-flop then call. You may well lose but that's poker. On the other hand, if the guy has been asleep the whole game and suddenly wakes up then I'm getting out of it.
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#18
03-29-2005, 11:58 AM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
[ QUOTE ]
I'd agree that it's a lot easier to fold the QQ than the set in those circumstances. What are the stats on an A or K falling on a flop? I think it's something like 66% of the time one of them will fall? I'll fold to a bet with an A out there every time, and a K 99% of the time, if someone else raised preflop. If I call a raise preflop with QQ, I'm pretty much calling for set value. If there's no A or K on the flop, that's sort of a bonus, but not what I'm expecting or banking on. [/ QUOTE ] You are undervaluing QQ, IMO. I'm not saying it's gold preflop, I have folded it many times...then again against some players I'll happily get all in with it. QQ is a favorite to be an overpair to the flop, and will win unimproved quite often. Definitely worth much more than set value. As far as folding a set, just don't.
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#19
03-29-2005, 12:31 PM
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Re: Are you good enough to make these laydowns?
I would even fold KK after someone opened I reraised and he then moves in and we are both pretty deep. That is I should lay down KK in those situations cause every time the guy has AA. QQ should be an easy fold unless you have a read IMO, I mean honestly how often does someone raise and then move in with AK or JJ or even QQ at the 100, 200 levels? Maybe they do where you play but when someone is all-in where I play itīs usually AAvsKK. Of course some people you are happy to call even with JJ but most of the time I think itīs right to fold. Tell me Iīm wrong.
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