Hand to Talk About - Page 3

mikelow · #21 02-02-2003, 02:16 PM

What's out there? A set? Would have reraised on the turn.
The only other hand to worry about is 5 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/forums/images/icons/heart.gif[/img].

With top two, an easy value bet, IMO.

mikelow · #22 02-02-2003, 02:18 PM

Kevin J · #23 02-02-2003, 02:58 PM

Why not a set of two's? Or maybe he's waiting for a non-flush (or paired board) on the river. What's wrong with AT?

Here's a fact: If you 3-bet me on the turn AND I call you're bet on the river, I guarantee those chips won't be going into YOUR stacks 90% of the time.

Kevin J · #24 02-02-2003, 03:31 PM

Wouldn't you all agree that part of the consideration for whether or not Mason should bet the river, is not just the chance he holds the best hand, but the chance his hand is best when called ?

I know this applies more when last to act, but still shouldn't be completely overlooked here. IMO-

If his opponent(s) will check enough better hands behind him, then I think checking is the proper play. If only because the more bets that go into a pot on later streets, the more likely it is that someone holds a better hand than A9. But if not, I like a bet. Mainly because a worse hand is very unlikely to. But I can't imagine that he should expect to be called 85-90% of the time by a worse hand as others have stated.

Duke · #25 02-02-2003, 03:33 PM

3 people see the river. MM, EP, MP.

Now, the comments that the river is an easy value bet is -obvious-. It jumps right out at you. MM probably posted this hand for a reason, and to show that even he can miss a bet is most likely not it.

But if he bets, EP folds and MP most likely calls. He gets paid off in one spot. He must have checked to either get in a check-raise, or else thought that there was some chance that EP would take a shot at the pot, MP call, and then he can trap MP for another bet. So he'd make 3 bets instead of 1. And, this has to work a little over 1/3 of the time to show a profit?

Then there's the possibility that he would just get a check-raise in on MP, which would have to work, again, a bit more than half the time.

At any rate, the easy river value bet is what I would say to go for. But I'd probably miss the bet anyhow. But I think the check wasn't about check-calling to save a bet if he's behind. I think it's about trying to make another bet, and thinking it will work enough of the time.

~D

The _Grifter · #26 02-02-2003, 03:40 PM

Clarkmeister summed it up beautifully.

Kevin J · #27 02-02-2003, 03:43 PM

I suppose it's possible, but that would be one helluva read to check/raise the river with what's not even top two, after going 3 bets on the turn.

I just can't see the early player (who Mason described as a winning regular) bluffing with busted hearts at this obviously protected pot. No. A worse hand is not going to bet. At least not enough times to make a check/raise worth going for. IMO- His check must be for another reason.

Zeno · #28 02-02-2003, 03:45 PM

Well done analysis. Enjoyed your post.

"I think Mason is ahead on the river well over 85% of the time here. Betting is mandatory."

So the question then becomes: Why did he not bet the river? Giving Mason his just do, he does have a good (excellent) reason.

Better read on the players? Past history of play with opponents? Table image? Set up for the future?
Or ?

-Zeno

The _Grifter · #29 02-02-2003, 03:47 PM

He bets on the river....Flush draw folds and he gets a crying call from MP with A,Q or A,K.

lysis · #30 02-02-2003, 04:17 PM

"Definitely not a set and likely not AT. In fact, AT is the only hand we are worried about and the fact that 1. A ten came and 2. MP didn't 4 bet strongly suggests that AT isn't a concern"

I disagree with that, and here's why. Let's go ahead and make ourselves the MP player, with AT in this hand. Wouldn't you have played it the same way MP played his hand upto the river?

Flop: Mason bet's out, and WP calls. Here I think a raise or a fold is the only way to go. You can't just call, cause of the flush draw. We choose to raise, and now Mason just calls. What is your read on Mason here?

Hmmm.... Probably not a flush draw (he would probably re-raise here for value with all these people in the pot), maybe a weak ace, or maybe he's slow playing a big hand.

Your read on the WP's 3 bet is good, I agree, set or flush draw.

Turn: Mason bet's out again. I think it's correct to believe now that he's probably not on the flush draw, leaving us with the two other reads. WP only calls, that's probably our flush draw.

But now I've just hit my probable best card, so I have to raise. Now Mason 3 bet's.

You're telling me you're not worried right now whether your AT is good or not?? I think you have to read his just smooth calling a raise on the flop, then 3 betting on the turn when your card (i.e. a card he's not as likely to have) hits as a monster hand. You can't 4 bet him here, can you? But you can't lay it down either, your hand is too good.

Apart from that one comment, I agree with everything you wrote.

If Mason is gonna three bet the turn, then I think he has to bet on the river, cause the 4 changed nothing. Sure WP is gonna drop, but MP probably has to make a crying call.

lysis