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#12
03-22-2005, 09:38 AM
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Re: J4 river play
My first reaction was why oh why? The more I thought about it the more I like it.
L2 would raise the river with any Q, if not earlier. BB bet out the enitre way, seems more likely he has on over pair, not QQ, or AK, Aj, A-10, or some such hand. The only hands he may have based on his play are AQ or KQ, which is just less likely. Many 2-4 players will not raise KQ here regardless. This leaves many more hands you beat than those you don't, combined with his seemingly autobet strategy of the villain, this looks like a great raise. L2 has given every indication he will autocall the raise as well, further increasing the value of the raise.... Does this thinking make sense? 
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#14
03-22-2005, 09:41 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
how often do you think i WON'T be up against a Q or a 4 here? because i think its pretty clear L2 has neither. [/ QUOTE ] You obviously don't need to worry about L2 here. Do you have any reads on BB. IE, do u think he would raise AQ out of the bb and keep pulling a stop and go with TPTK or is he more likely to have AA/KK. I don't mind this line as long as you're folding to a 3-bet.
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#15
03-22-2005, 09:43 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
no reads so just assume generic party 2/4 players party 2/4 L1, L2, L3, i donk on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] sb calls. bb raies. we all call. 6 to the flop for 12 small ones. flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] sb checks. bb bets. L1 folds. L2 calls. L3 folds. I raise. bb calls. L2 calls. 3 to the turn for 9 big ones. turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] bb bets. L2 calls. I raise. bb calls. L2 calls. 3 to the river for 15 big ones. river: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bb bets river. L2 calls. I raise. Oh, no? [/ QUOTE ] Fish.
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#16
03-22-2005, 09:43 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
no reads so just assume generic party 2/4 players party 2/4 L1, L2, L3, i donk on the button with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] sb calls. bb raies. we all call. 6 to the flop for 12 small ones. flop: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] sb checks. bb bets. L1 folds. L2 calls. L3 folds. I raise. bb calls. L2 calls. 3 to the turn for 9 big ones. turn: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] bb bets. L2 calls. I raise. bb calls. L2 calls. 3 to the river for 15 big ones. river: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bb bets river. L2 calls. I raise. Oh, no? [/ QUOTE ] Easy. Fold to a 3-bet.
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#17
03-22-2005, 09:54 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
Word. Folding to a 3-bet? [/ QUOTE ] I think the raise is bad if he intends to call a 3-bet. And I really think it's somewhat close anyway. Raising is fine I believe but calling would be too. I would expect to see BB flip a Q maybe 1/4 of the time and there will be a small percentage of the time the other opponent does either have a Q or 4 and just never raised it. Also, you don't know that you will get two calls when ahead.
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#18
03-22-2005, 10:04 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Word. Folding to a 3-bet? [/ QUOTE ] I think the raise is bad if he intends to call a 3-bet. And I really think it's somewhat close anyway. Raising is fine I believe but calling would be too. I would expect to see BB flip a Q maybe 1/4 of the time and there will be a small percentage of the time the other opponent does either have a Q or 4 and just never raised it. Also, you don't know that you will get two calls when ahead. [/ QUOTE ] What range of hands to you put BB on? Seems much lower than 25% chance that he has a Q to me.
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#19
03-22-2005, 10:06 AM
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Re: J4 river play
[ QUOTE ]
What range of hands to you put BB on? Seems much lower than 25% chance that he has a Q to me. [/ QUOTE ] TT-AA, AQ-AK, AJs, KQs, who knows exactly...he is an unknown. But he certainly is representing a Q. That makes it somewhat more likely than math will probably show. And AA or KK would likely play more aggressively early on.
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#20
03-22-2005, 10:38 AM
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Re: J4 river play
which is it?
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Linear Mode
