I chicken out on the river

[parttimepro]

I would have checked too. There are a couple hands you beat that will probably call a $100 bet: KJ and QJ. I think she's more likely to have a flush or straight+flush draw than either of those two hands. She's done the classic check/call, check/call, which for a weak predictable player could be TPMK, but is more representative of a draw.

Depending on how bad she is, she should put you on a strong made hand like trip J's. She should also know that she's been representing a draw that just got there. Hmmm...therefore, she should have bet out on the river. Maybe she's afraid of the boat. Maybe she doesn't know how clearly you're both representing your hands. Maybe she's made it and wants to get tricky. Maybe she has trip J's too, and just wants a cheap showdown.

Let's say she's equally likely to have a flush as KJ or QJ, and will play totally straightforward. If you bet $100, KJ calls, you make an extra $100. Flush raises, and you lose $100. So a bet is 0 EV.

Let's then add in tricky/dumb play. She c/r's either to represent a flush or because she thinks KJ is the best hand. You bet $100, she pushes. If you play it safe, you always lose $100. If you take this into account and call her push, the EV for a bet is 0.

Now let's mix them together. KJ will c/r half the time, and a flush will always c/r. If you fold:
50% flush = -100
25% KJ call = +100
25% KJ push = -100
EV = -50

If you call a c/r:
50% flush = -350
25% KJ call = +100
25% KJ push = +350
EV = -62.5

Whew. Long way of saying I like the check behind.

[Tilt]

Well, as evident in my earlier post I misread the postion of this hand. The more I think about it, the more I like a value be here. Why?

1) If she c/r's, you have an easy muck based on this player and your read.
2) She is capable of calling with weaker hands here.
3) Your read is that she has a weaker hand.

I think a a value bet - say, another $100, is definitely +EV. I have to believe the number of times she will call with a lesser hand is higher than the number of times she actually has you beat here.

[dtbog]

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I think I have to respectfully disagree with most of your analysis.

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Better than the disrespectful disagreement that happens to a lot of posters around here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
Trying to checkraise the river when you hit an obvious draw is a play that poor players make... which is why I thought that she might have hit her flush. =p

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This is precisely what makes this game so interesting. In my experience (which is admittedly a great deal more limited than yours), I've rarely seen this play used, mostly because of the reason you described (it's easy to check behind with a marginal holding). Consequently, the deception value that accompanies its use can be relatively valuable.

(Obviously, in the extreme case, if you're playing in a game where NO ONE will check a flush on the river, and someone checks on the river, that means they didn't hit their flush. You know what I mean.)

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I've never seen a weak player checkraise a flopped flush draw. In fact, making that move would pretty much entirely exclude them from being a weak player in the first place.

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Could you explain? Are you saying that a weak player wouldn't make this c/r because it is a deception play?

-DB

[suspicious_mind]

The read on the players was that she is weak but not a calling station so I'm guessing she would have folded a T by now and even if she wouldn't she would probably fold now that the flush got there. So if the only hands she could have is a J or a flush you should check behind because there are more ways she could have a flush than a J. Even if she plays JXo she is more likely to have a flush. If you had a read on her that she would check with a J but bet with the flush you would bet but you don't have any read so I think checking is right.

[Yeknom58]

If she's weak I can't think of a single hand you beat that she will CR while every Jack and the occasional AT/KT will pay off. Seems like a bet but it's close IMO.

Also, "Oh and as for me, I've been playing tight and my bet into multiple opponents on the flop should be respected."

Againsts weak opponents my image shouldn't be taken into account unless I've done some super extreme things. Weak player don't notice/care.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think it's probably a good check because drawing to a flush on a paired board and then trying to check/raise the river is exactly the type of thing that a weak player would do. Also, slowplaying a flopped boat all the way to the river is also a common move for a weak player. I just don't see any hands that you are beating here that will call you except possibly for KJ/QJ but that is a very narrow holding to hope for. I think it is less than 50% probability that you are ahead once the flush hits, if you ever were.

[soah]

Results.

I say "That wasn't one of the cards I wanted to see." Then I crane my neck a little to see over the cup holder which is pressed right up against her stack of chips so that I can determine precisely how much being check-raised would suck. I'm not exactly being discreet about this... I think I may have given off a bit of a tell here. =P But I didn't really care, because if I decided to bet then anything that I've done to show weakness certainly can't hurt my chances of getting called. I finally decide that I can't bet because I can't figure what she'll call me with that I can beat (I put her on a draw the whole way). I say "I'll probably regret this, but I check" and I flip my cards (last aggressor shows first) and she's like "What's da big deal, it don't matter what you do" and flashes Kd9s before mucking.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Asian lady who isn't very good limps on my right

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Understatement? It's too bad she checked the river, otherwise we could have had a 'misplayed on every street' contestant.

[soah]

I updated my read on her after this hand. Prior to this I hadn't seen her do anything nearly as bad.

[schwza]

i also like the river check. one reason is that you won't know what to do to a c/r - she might c/r Jx, so you can't fold with confidence.

it warms my heart to know that there are players like that playing 5/10.