is this turn play correct

[davelin]

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Strictly pot odds. How does pot equity make this -EV.

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Pot odds only tell you weather you should continue with the hand or fold. They don't tell you how to select between being aggressive (by betting & raising) or passive (by just calling). Pot equity tells you this. Do you see why?

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I do now. I guess what I was saying was it was still profitable to raise which is different than -EV.

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I'm not 100% clear what conclusion you've come to. Do you still think it's profitable in this circumstance to raise?

[DoctorDrew]

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Strictly pot odds. How does pot equity make this -EV.

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Pot odds only tell you weather you should continue with the hand or fold. They don't tell you how to select between being aggressive (by betting & raising) or passive (by just calling). Pot equity tells you this. Do you see why?

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I do now. I guess what I was saying was it was still profitable to raise which is different than -EV.

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I'm not 100% clear what conclusion you've come to. Do you still think it's profitable in this circumstance to raise?

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Yes, if you know a spade is coming on the river [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[davelin]

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Strictly pot odds. How does pot equity make this -EV.

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Pot odds only tell you weather you should continue with the hand or fold. They don't tell you how to select between being aggressive (by betting & raising) or passive (by just calling). Pot equity tells you this. Do you see why?

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I do now. I guess what I was saying was it was still profitable to raise which is different than -EV.

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I'm not 100% clear what conclusion you've come to. Do you still think it's profitable in this circumstance to raise?

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Yes, if you know a spade is coming on the river [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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For the rest of mere mortals, we're content to just call the turn.

[GrunchCan]

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I do now. I guess what I was saying was it was still profitable to raise which is different than -EV.

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It is actually slightly -EV to raise the turn in the actual example. Davelin's example was illustrative - not intended to be an actual estimation of the EV of your play.

So let's actually figure out the EV of raising the turn.

In this case, Hero has a 2nd nut FD, which will come in (9/46) ~ 19.5% of the time. Hero also has TPNK, which is probably no good. Let's assume that the chances that Hero will lose even if he makes his flush is approximately offset by the chance that he can win with TPNK if he does not make his flush.

So for simplicity, let's assume that if Hero makes his flush, he'll win the pot 100% of the time. If he doesn't make the flush, he'll fold to a bet on the river.

So Hero raises the turn. Everybody calls. Hero has invested 1 BB for a return of 2 BBs from his 2 opponents.

If we play this hand 5 theoretical times, Hero will spend (5 * 1 BB) = 5 BB, and win a total of (2 opponents * 2 BB) = 4 BB. Net gain for 5 tries is -5 + 4 = -1 BB, or -.2 BB/hand.

Raising (for value) when you do not have an equity edge is -EV. It's not just less +EV.

Does this make more sense?

Edit: Actually, I wouldn't even say it's slightly -EV. It's just plain -EV.

Edit again: typos & unclear things.

[Aaron W.]

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Calling the turn makes it easier to put Hero on the flush draw. So, just calling the turn and hitting the flush on the river kills the action.

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Hero raised the turn, and when the spade hit the action was killed anyway. You need to consider what happens to the action when hero raises both the flop and the turn.

You should also be aware that against some players, the river card has much more of an effect on the river action than how the hand has been played out. You'll find lots of players who shut down on the river flush card even though the flush came runner-runner and the action hints at the flush being irrelevant.

[@bsolute_luck]

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I do now. I guess what I was saying was it was still profitable to raise which is different than -EV.

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It is actually slightly -EV to raise the turn in the actual example. Davelin's example was illustrative - not intended to be an actual estimation of the EV of your play.

So let's actually figure out the EV of raising the turn.

In this case, Hero has a 2nd nut FD, which will come in (9/46) ~ 19.5% of the time. Hero also has TPNK, which is probably no good. Let's assume that the chances that Hero will lose even if he makes his flush is approximately offset by the chance that he can win with TPNK if he does not make his flush.

So for simplicity, let's assume that if Hero makes his flush, he'll win the pot 100% of the time. If he doesn't make the flush, he'll fold to a bet on the river.

So Hero raises the turn. Everybody calls. Hero has invested 1 BB for a return of 2 BBs from his 2 opponents.

If we play this hand 5 theoretical times, Hero will spend (5 * 1 BB) = 5 BB, and win a total of (2 opponents * 2 BB) = 4 BB. Net gain for 5 tries is -5 + 4 = -1 BB, or -.2 BB/hand.

Raising (for value) when you do not have an equity edge is -EV. It's not just less +EV.

Does this make more sense?

Edit: Actually, I wouldn't even say it's slightly -EV. It's just plain -EV.

Edit again: typos & unclear things.

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why isn't it (2*2)*5 tries?

EDIT:nevermind. if we multiplied it times 5, we would have to win all 5 times. you only multiply it once because 1/5 =20% which is the amount of times we probably win this hand. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[noneckdude]

The key question, I think, is: are you in front on the turn? You might very well be. This is a bit speculative without a read on BB but with the straight- and flush draws it should make it easier to read him even though many players make the mistake of not playing a set fast enough when 2 draws are out.
If BB held AA or KK, he would re-raise the flop with the two draws out. The same goes for AK even IF BB thinks you're slow-playing JJ which would be a grave error. He probably doesn't have JJ or KJ for the same reasons he doesn't have AA. I think we can rule out KT and QT because these would not be hands to raise with in the BB, but even with QT out there you're in front. Again, speculative without a read but let's give BB some credit here. So what would BB have? AQ is a very good possibility, it is worth a raise. But you're still in front. The same goes for AJ. Other hands he could have: TT, 99, 88 etc. The alternatives to which you are behind are: AT, KQ, QJ and QQ with all 4 hands not being logical because of the bet on the flop for AT and to a lesser extent QJ (could be semi-bluff) and the bet-call on the turn for all 4 hands. Even a complete fish would re-raise with AT on that turn. Again, this is all assuming 'correct play' by BB and him not slowplaying a set or top two-pair with 2 draws out.

Unlikely hands to which you're behind:
AA, KK, AK, QQ, JJ, QJ, AT, KJ, KT, T9, ... (K9, ....J2)

Unlikely hands to which you're in front:
QT

Likely hands to which you're behind:
KQ

Likely hands to which you're in front:
AQ, AJ, TT, 99, 88, ...

So, if BB played his hand 'correctly', you have a good chance of being in front on the turn and that's why I think the raise was a very good play.You might very well have something to protect. I would put my money on BB having AQ or AJ. But then again, BB could have played his AK way too slow, which makes this all nothing but pure speculation. But hopefully entertaining nonetheless. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[trainslayer]

i'm gettin dizzy. i'm gonna bookmark this thread for further review cause i ain't gettin it all yet and this looks like something i need to git.

However, What kind of hand do you put the villian on? AK? AQ? I think KK or QQ is out of the question based on later actions. Is AQ, A10 or somesuch other out of the question. If not would this not change the equations. Hero not only has a flush draw but top pair. And the Q on board has counterfeited any villian kicker other than A. What it MP1, MP2 or CO have a Q or J? Would you not raise and want to force out the other draws? Pot's already big enuf for me.

Anyways, I like the raise on the turn. Maybe further study will reveal the errors of my ways. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Shillx]

Calling the turn is best. Your hand will sometimes be good in this spot, but not very often. You also have a nice draw that is probably worth about 12 outs. Notice that sometimes you will spike a king on the river and lose to AK. Someimes you will hit a four and lose to KQ. Sometimes you will make a flush and lose to AQ [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. So you don't really have 15 outs but 12 is reasonable imo. You will also have the best hand in this spot say 5% of the time. That gives you 31% equity, so you don't quite have enough to raise the turn for value.

On a side note, you want to get as much action as possible should you make your flush on the river. If you just call the turn, you could get bet into again on the river allowing you to raise with the near nuts.

Brad