confused with JJ, a couple questionable plays

[pyroponic]

[ QUOTE ]
BB's play is confusing to me. The flop bet from a solid player into a big field including a pf raiser in late position to me looks like a big made hand only because there aren't really any draws I can think of here that are value betting. But then he slows down. You do seem to have just enough to call with the whole way. I'm not sure how much I like the river raise. But I will give you this...I think BB's most likely hands are QT or QJ and the raise could work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even more of a reason to 3-bet the flop.

[chief444]

Yeah. See my edit. I just forgot to mention it and I agree.

[LinusKS]

My first instinct was to fold to the bet & raise on the flop; but you're right - you've got odds to call to the gutshot and the set, on the flop as well as the turn.

There's a not-insignificant chance there's more than top-pair out there, but I agree your outs are probably good.

By the river, I'd say it's fair to put the BB on a Q. If he had more than that, he probably would have let you know by now. On the other hand, you've said he looks like a reasonable player, so it's hard to put him on any less than that.

The MP is claiming at least a Q. Since we're pretty sure the BB has one, and because you've said he's loose and (overly?) aggressive post-flop, there's at least some chance he's just badly misplaying his hand.

So I guess the question is, do you make money on the raise.

You have to compare this to the other 2 possibilities - calling, and folding.

Calling here costs you one, and assuming the BB calls behind you, there will be 15 bb's, excluding yours. 15:1 odds are pretty good, but my guess is you're still losing money by making the call. I'd guess at least one of them has at least a Q more often than that.

If that's correct, then you need to compare raising to just folding.

There's 14 bb's in the pot when it comes to you, and it costs you 2 to make the play, so it's 1:7 money at that time.

If the BB has just a Q - probably a fair bet - I'm guessing he'll fold it something like 1 out of 4 times.

If the MP has just a pair of nines or less, which is the only way you beat him, I'd guess there's a fair chance he folds too. I'd guess 2 out of 3 times he has at least a Q, and calls.

If that's all correct, that means you win 1 out of 12 times - not near enough to justify the 1 to 7 money you're putting in to try to win the pot.

Of course I could be off on one or both of those numbers, but the key is you have to multiply them together to make it work. In other words,the BB has to fold, AND the MP has to have less than a Q.

If the BB will fold 50% of the time, and the MP will have been betting and raising with nothing (or next to nothing) one out of three times, then you make money on the play.

I don't think the numbers are that high, but I'd be curious to know what you think.

[Elizabeth]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
BB's play is confusing to me. The flop bet from a solid player into a big field including a pf raiser in late position to me looks like a big made hand only because there aren't really any draws I can think of here that are value betting. But then he slows down. You do seem to have just enough to call with the whole way. I'm not sure how much I like the river raise. But I will give you this...I think BB's most likely hands are QT or QJ and the raise could work.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even more of a reason to 3-bet the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if the raise to protect will work on the flop. First, it's 2 bets cold to be and I've got less than top pair. The need to protect is dubious, but I will grant that it's there for the times I am ahead. It's just a bit muffled.

But anyway, what if BB calls? I learn nothing because he'll call with a draw too. And he'll call with QJ on the flop because it's top pair with a gutshot straight draw. And he'll call with KQ or AQ because it's a good top pair.

I guess I want him to fold a middle pair?

[chief444]

Who said anything about raising to "protect"? That has nothing to do with why I raise here. There are other reasons. Free cards are nice, if so desired. So are cheap showdowns with likely 2nd best hands that are worth showing down.

[LinusKS]

I don't understand the logic of 3-betting.

1. She's almost certainly behind on the flop.

2. She's on a draw with no overlay.

3. For all she knows, her 3-bet could get capped behind her.

4. She's first to act, so the chances of getting a free card are negligible.

[Elizabeth]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't understand the logic of 3-betting.

1. She's almost certainly behind on the flop.

2. She's on a draw with no overlay.

3. For all she knows, her 3-bet could get capped behind her.

4. She's first to act, so the chances of getting a free card are negligible.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm last to act. On the button. Still, the chances of a free card may be low because of the aggressive player.

BTW - good post about the river raise. I am thinking about it and I will have to write a decent response later on today.

I think we disagree in that I didn't feel I was certainly behind on the flop, turn, or river -- only that I was probably behind. BB could have been betting a draw and the loose player leads like this on any hand that he plays.

[chief444]

[ QUOTE ]
I think we disagree in that I didn't feel I was certainly behind on the flop, turn, or river -- only that I was probably behind. BB could have been betting a draw and the loose player leads like this on any hand that he plays.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that there's still some chance you're ahead. I just find that 3-betting flops like this typically freeze up most players at this limit, even if they hold strong hands. I just feel it's a better option than calling. I think folding is actually close though, mainly because as I said the BB leading out concerns me with this board.

[Elizabeth]

[ QUOTE ]

By the river, I'd say it's fair to put the BB on a Q. If he had more than that, he probably would have let you know by now. On the other hand, you've said he looks like a reasonable player, so it's hard to put him on any less than that.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's reasonable to put BB on *no more than* a Q, but I think if he had a strong queen we might have heard more from him. The fact that he's calling along indicates that he might be on a straight draw. An open ended draw bet into 6 people is not unreasonable on the flop. I bet he expected more callers though.


[ QUOTE ]

The MP is claiming at least a Q. Since we're pretty sure the BB has one, and because you've said he's loose and (overly?) aggressive post-flop, there's at least some chance he's just badly misplaying his hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

I had seen MP bluff raise the river twice in about an hour. He is addicted to the semibluff as well. Still, a raise on the flop probably means a made hand over a drawing hand. I was thinking that I had a better hand than MP as much as 25% of the time.

[ QUOTE ]

Calling here costs you one, and assuming the BB calls behind you, there will be 15 bb's, excluding yours. 15:1 odds are pretty good, but my guess is you're still losing money by making the call. I'd guess at least one of them has at least a Q more often than that.


[/ QUOTE ]

Big diagreement here. Part of this my read on MP, but 15:1 is about 6% of the time. Am I beat 94% of the time? Not when there are draws like this.

There's 14 bb's in the pot when it comes to you, and it costs you 2 to make the play, so it's 1:7 money at that time.

[ QUOTE ]

If the BB has just a Q - probably a fair bet - I'm guessing he'll fold it something like 1 out of 4 times.


[/ QUOTE ]
I don't know how tight he is, so this is a hard assumption. Look at a weak Q like QT or QJ. Can you call 2 cold, getting 14:2 when it could be reraised by an aggressive player ... when the preflop raiser called this board down, and raised the river? If you were in BB's position with QT, do you think your hand is good getting 7:1?

The big problem is that you neglected the chance that BB doesn't have a Q. Your computation assumes that I am beaten by the BB holding a queen 3/4 of the time. I think that's way off. BB might fold a Q 1/4 of the time, but say he only has it 1/2 the time.

Now My chances of winning are 5/8 times 1/3, about 20%. That's enough to cover the 7:1 shot. 20% times the (now 17) bets in the pot is 3.4 BB.

The question I think is is this better than raising?

Under these parameters, if I don't raise then I only win 1/2 times 1/3, or 1/6. That's 1/6 of a 16 bet pot, which is 2.67 BB.

In other words, reducing the times that BB overcalls to win from 50% to 25% wins an extra 1/12 of the pot.

My estimate at the table was that MP had me beat 75% of the time, and BB had me beat maybe 20% of the time. I didn't think BB would call 2 cold, even with a queen. Maybe the river and flop weakness showed that he didn't like his hand ... and it probably wasn't a queen but it might have been one.

[Elizabeth]

River: (13 BB) 4 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets, Hero raises, BB folds, MP calls.

Results:
<font color="white">
MP shows A9o, my hand is good
</font>