First post, getting started w/ an 88 hand

[MrWookie47]

While I'm not entirely convinced the check/raise (check/fold EP bet) would have been correct, I think I made a mistake in not considering it enough. CO, as the most aggressive of the lot, might be inclined to bet if checked to. However, there is a decent chance that I have the best hand, and I'd feel awfully dirty giving a free card to any lingering Ax, Kx, Jx hands. I don't even think I could be sure I was good if it was checked around. The LP-P's simply may have checked their Qx hand(s) around.

[brooklynjoe]

I don't think this is right. I haven't done the math, but think about it: after the flop there are 47 unseen cards and just three of them are queens. I think just by probability it is more likely that someone doesn't have a queen.

[prrthd]

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I don't think this is right. I haven't done the math, but think about it: after the flop there are 47 unseen cards and just three of them are queens. I think just by probability it is more likely that someone doesn't have a queen.

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This may be true, but with the way I'm running lately two of them would probably have queens [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[brooklynjoe]

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I can agree on not check raising. That's not what I would do either. I was using it as a way of stressing that a single bet does not really protect the hand well against loose passive players if that happened to be the primary reason for the flop bet.

I also agree that in the case of the bet, if you do get raised you know you are in trouble. But that information does you no good unless you then fold - which means you gave away a bet for that information.

If you check and it gets checked around. You also know where you are and you haven't lost a bet and can make a determination about what to do after seeing the turn card for free.

If after checking a bet comes from the player just to your left, I think you still can still suspect you are in trouble a fairly high percentage of the time and fold, thus saving something.

Then there are the times you check, someone bets, and someone else raises before it gets back to you. There you've clearly saved a bet.

Then there are times you bet and only get called by someone with a Q because the kicker was weak or they are passive. So you continue betting into a losing hand because you think you are best.

What I am saying is that I don't see enormous upside to betting from early position into 4 other players when there's an overcard on the board already and you only have 2 outs if you are either beat now or if an overcard comes. The simple reason is that a single bet is not going to drive most players out.

Against 1 or 2 others, I definitely bet.

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I think that the bet on the flop is simply because you have what is more than likely the best hand and you have to at least charge people to draw out on you.

If you get raised then you might think about letting it go, at least you found out for just one small bet. How do you expect to get information without putting some money in.

Also I think that having the action checked around on the flop doesn't tell you anything about your hand. What do you plan to do on the turn in this case?

-Joe

[DeadManJay]

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Also I think that having the action checked around on the flop doesn't tell you anything about your hand. What do you plan to do on the turn in this case?

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I asked myself that question when I posted my answer, and I would bet a non-scare card on the turn. If the turn was a J, K, or A I'm dropping to a bet. There is just too much of a chance that someone has at least one of the 2 broadways.

[brooklynjoe]

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Also I think that having the action checked around on the flop doesn't tell you anything about your hand. What do you plan to do on the turn in this case?

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I asked myself that question when I posted my answer, and I would bet a non-scare card on the turn. If the turn was a J, K, or A I'm dropping to a bet. There is just too much of a chance that someone has at least one of the 2 broadways.

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I agree that a broadway card on the turn would make me feel lest confident about my hand, but how will you know how to procede on the turn if you didn't face the field with a bet on the flop. They might call with anything, but they will definitely check with anything. If they call your bet it at least tells you that they have something that they think has a chance to win. Regardless of the information aspect though I simply think that you can't let people holding two overs or gut-shot straight draws have a free look at the turn.

I'm not sure that checking a scare card on turn is the right play either. I'd be interested to see what others think of this.

[DeathDonkey]

Eh just call me optimistic but I expect to have the best hand on flops like this alot of the time. Note that I would not bet if the flop was 56A. Also the fact that we fear almost every overcard means we don't want this to get checked around, or try to CR a late position player which will bloat the pot and tie everyone to it. Right now its a small pot and we have 2nd pair beat. You'll be surprised how often you can take it down here, or with a turn bet on a blank.

-DeathDonkey

[DeadManJay]

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Also the fact that we fear almost every overcard means we don't want this to get checked around, or try to CR a late position player which will bloat the pot and tie everyone to it.

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Just betting here will give overcards far better odds than a CR to a LP bet.

Your giving 6.5:1 leading the flop and as low as 3.75:1 with a successful CR.

6.5:1 is almost perfect for someone drawing to overcards.

I admit that leading the flop would protect better than having it checked around, though.

[flopwell]

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Thank you thank you thank you for betting the flop as not nearly enough people do that and its the easiest bet ever.-DeathDonkey

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I agree with Donkey-Do Not Give Free Cards.
Having said that, How many people would have even seen the flop? I realize that Wookie didn't ask an opinion on this, but I am trying, and not quite succeeding, to become a better player, and I would like to hear from folks about whether I would be correct in mucking this mp pf.

[Niediam]

SSH has a very similiar example where there authors say you should bet this type of flop. (p. 270)