I KNOW he has AK, I just KNOW it.......

[ErrantNight]

just some great quotes here...

[ QUOTE ]
This will be my final post on this hand.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well, we already proved THAT wrong.

[ QUOTE ]
I flop a set I push the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Glad to know that the board and your opponent's likely range of hands never enter into it. That's some great thinking there.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the % of winning with the set?

[/ QUOTE ] \

With any set at any time, made on any street, with any pair? Are you counting sets as only when you have a pocket pair, or are you talking about any three of a kind?

Perhaps what you should REALLY be asking is: what percentage of the time when my opponent's likely holdings can be narrowed to a select few on a board that likely benefits them does my set win?

Because that number is going to be MUCH lower than the percentage of the time a random 3 of a kind wins any old pot.

Glad to know you're not interested in that, however.

[ QUOTE ]
What is the % of filling up on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

You seemed to have trouble figuring this out... but since you finally got it... might you consider the fact that you're drawing to the T and "filling up" might not help you? of course you wouldn't.

[ QUOTE ]
I would put him on AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ and possibly A Q suited.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then perhaps you should do the math and figure out that given this range of hands, your betting strategy is just plain wrong. It's been proven to you, you're just ignoring it. That's fantastic, you're pig-headed. Thanks for playing. Why post here, again?

[ QUOTE ]
I will take my chances until something tells me this is a bad move.
Id say pushing this pot is the right move
And taking my licks when they come.


[/ QUOTE ]

What could that something be? At least you're personally wiling to donate money, and not just suggesting other people spew chips. That's at least a little heartening.

[ QUOTE ]
I would think that if you asked anyone if flopping a set of tens with that board is usually the winner most people agree.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would think that if you asked anyone if flopping the nut straight usually wins you the hand they would agree. But that has no bearing on this argument.

I could also ask them if they think killing and eating their children for fun and profit was an evil thing to do. They would probably agree. But it would be an equally pointless question.

[ QUOTE ]
The villains betting leads to think he has you beat but there are too many hands he could be playing this way.


[/ QUOTE ]

Like: "AK, KK, AA, QQ, possibly JJ and possibly A Q suited."

[ QUOTE ]
I apologize about my rushing about with the figures and outs and such. My calculations were wrong but that would not change the way I play the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you're wrong... you know it... and you're not changing your play... fantastic! The forum proves useful once again!

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I could also ask them if they think killing and eating their children for fun and profit was an evil thing to do. They would probably agree. But it would be an equally pointless question.


[/ QUOTE ]

i laughed out loud when i read this.

[LotusBoy]

I am a newbie, here are some of my first attempt to do the math, please let me know if these make sense or not.
On the Turn, know cards: T(3), J(1), Q(1), 2(1)
Villain possible Hands that you are ahead:
AQ (12) Not very likely So discount this by 50% (6)
AA (6)
KK (6)
combined (4*6 + 6*6 + 6*6)/18 = 5.3 outs against Hero.
However, I think UTG has a K or 9 more than 70% of time here, so effectively he has around 8 *0.7 = 5.6 outs.
So roughly speaking, UTG + Villain has around 10 combined outs against you.
========================================
Villain's hands that beats you:
AK (16)
QQ (3)
JJ (3)
You have combined ( 10*16 + 1*3 + 1*3)/22 = 7.4 outs.
=========================================
So you are 18:22 dog again Villain, with 7.4 outs, call is correct.
Your pot equity 18/40 * (46-10)/46 + 22/40*(7.4/46) = 44% which is bigger than 1/3, therefore raise the turn is correct.
However, thing will change a lot if AQ is not possible hand for Villain at all:
Pot equity = 12/34 * (46 -10)/46 + 22/34*(7.4/46) = 28.75 % which is less than 1/3, therefore calling the turn is correct.
So bottomline is: If Villain is a LAG, raise, If he is not, Call.

[QTip]

I’m not sure why you’re so aggravated

All I’m saying is there’s about 22 hands villain plays this way PF that we lose to right now the way the turn sets. There’s only 12 hands he plays this way that we’re winning as the turn sets. I was saying even if we improve on the turn, it may not be an improvement….

call down….calm down

[ErrantNight]

because you clearly haven't read the thread if you're responding to ME with these points. not only are they obvious, not only were they covered before, but I covered them elsewhere.

so, apologies for tearing you a new one... but c'mon... try a little...

[QTip]

I still do not see where you mentioned 22 hands vs. 12 hands....since I suck and I'm just learning how to make these types of decisions...it took me 10 minutes to figure that out....I think that's trying...

develop some tact...it will make discussion more pleasant for everyone.

[LotusBoy]

Not counting AQ will be 12:22 Dog

[chief444]

Just at a glance, your math looks OK. I didn't really look at it in detail though. But I think generally we should be more or less ignoring the possibility of AQ and after the flop cap probably discounting AA and also with this board. This board is more scary for AA than it is for a set.

[ErrantNight]

i have some tact.

you should learn to read and pay attention.

don't lecture me about crap i already know.

particularly when if you HAD been reading, it would have been perfectly obvious to you that I haven't wanted/needed or in any way benefited from the comments you have directed my way. you weren't attempting to engage me in conversation. you weren't attempting to correct or contradict me. you weren't bringing up anything that hadn't already been discussed elsewhere in the thread...

look, i don't dislike you... i just dislike those types of posts... it would be one thing if you were just posting in response to the start of the thread. and you were saying "here are my thoughts"

but you read halfway down, and decided i needed an education.

if i tapped you on your shoulder and started saying "hey, hey, you know, you should raise AA pre-flop!"

and you said: "yeah, i know, f off"

and i responded: "well, i never saw or heard you say anywhere that you were gonna raise AA preflop!"

wouldn't you want to slap me?

yeah, well...

[QTip]

Very nice work...looks like you're going at it as well.. I see that post here now.

Thanks.

I still think we can work on being more pleasant to one another...no sense in being rude when everyone's just trying to help each other make good decisions and become better poker players. I hate it when people start ripping on each other...get past it...true poker players learn to deal with hard situations (like being sucked out in a NL tourney) in a pleasant and sportsman-like response...not...you suck, shut-up you're a horrible poker player.