I KNOW he has AK, I just KNOW it.......

[PokerBob]

Party 2/4 (10 handed)

Villain here is reasonable. No read on UTG.

Hero is SB with T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG calls, 2 mucks, VILLAIN raises, 2 mucks, button cold-calls. Hero 3-bets. BB folds. UTG calls. VILLAIN caps. Button calls. Hero calls. UTG calls.

Flop (16 SB) (4 players)
T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
hero checks, UTG checks, VILLAIN bets, Button calls, HERO raises, UTG calls, VILLAIN 3-bets, button folds, Hero caps UTG calls, villain calls.

Turn (15 BB) (3 players) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

hero bets, UTG calls, villain raises, hero ???????

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
hero ???????

[/ QUOTE ]

Calls. I would probably check-call the river UI but I'm sure that it's far from perfect.

Rob

[JoshuaD]

His likely hands are: AK, AA, KK, QQ, and maybe JJ.

I think you're right to call down from here, as they're all playing it the same way villian played it, but I wonder if you should slow down earlier?

[sean c]

AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]
I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really think this is spewing. Given the action, there are only a few hands that hero is ahead of here.

[sean c]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the four your ahead of two (AA,KK)50%and UTG is adding money to the pot so if your hand is good 50% of the time and you get called in two places i see it as +EV this assumes UTG doesn't have something like 98s or the jacks so maybe we are not good 50%. How often do you we are good Joshua?

[crunchy1]

Even if you only count 1 Ten and 3 dueces as your only outs to the river aren't you gettin correct odds (18:1) to call here. Call the turn raise. Call the river UI - the pot is too big at this point to let go of a set.

[chief444]

I would probably check/call the turn. Anything that caps preflop AND the flop likely has you beat. And AA or KK aren't likely looking for a free card on the turn.

I would check/call the river unimproved as well.

[JoshuaD]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AA,KK and QQ are other possible hands no telling what UTG doing besides putting dead money into the pot. I call theturn raise and as long as no 9,king or ace does not hit the river I would lead the river and call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the 4 likely hands for villian, the ones that have the Hero beat are more frequent. Why bet this river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Of the four your ahead of two (AA,KK)50%and UTG is adding money to the pot so if your hand is good 50% of the time and you get called in two places i see it as +EV this assumes UTG doesn't have something like 98s or the jacks so maybe we are not good 50%. How often do you we are good Joshua?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not very often, really. This is the most flatering simulation for Hero, and he's still a dog.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,231,692 games 0.313 secs 3,935,118 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 41.0353 % [ 00.41 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 53.3801 % [ 00.53 00.01 ] { AA-QQ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 05.5846 % [ 00.05 00.01 ] { random }</pre><hr />

Hand 3 has to be much better than a random hand, and Hand 2 could also include JJ.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

116,676 games 0.031 secs 3,763,741 games/sec

Board: Td Jc Qs 2c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 32.5157 % [ 00.33 00.00 ] { ThTc }
Hand 2: 47.1811 % [ 00.43 00.04 ] { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }
Hand 3: 20.3032 % [ 00.16 00.04 ] { AKs-AJs, KQs-K8s, QJs, AKo-AJo, KQo-K8o, QJo }</pre><hr />


I think you're good enough to call down, but betting this river is just chip-spewing, with equity somewhere between 30 and 40%.