Aces Full

[n1bd]

Villain didn't bet 10x the pot, he bet 2x the pot (pot has 420 on the river, Villain pushed for 800).

So you should call if he's no more than 20% to have AK.

Given Villain's preflop and flop action, and the fact that there are many more Ax's than AK's in the deck (only 3 combos of AK left), and the fact that your preflop and river action paint you as not having AK, I think the chance of Villain holding AK is definitely below 20%. Of course, it's opponent-dependent, and if Villain would never or rarely bet on the river without the big full, there's no need to ponder a call, but it sounds like you think he's good enough to be capable of making a play.

I call on the river.

(BTW, fireitup, if your preflop action really does preclude you from having AK, then I think you should be checking more often with AK in the BB. Otherwise the unraised pots get tough to play if your opponents start taking shots at you on AKx or AAx or QJT boards.)


As Chris Dow pointed out, though, the river isn't the only tricky decision point in this hand: We can already see this coming on the turn. The pot is small going into the turn, but the action on the turn changes that and commits you to some showdowns.

If you held A7 and Villain held AK on the AA66 turn, you'd both be 50-50 and you could happily either check-raise big, or smooth call and bet big on the river at some badass optimal frequency. If you guys were both equally skilled, the situation would probably even be slightly +EV for you, since your "inferior" position gives you the right of first bluff on the river.

With A4, though, you're getting freerolled on the turn and you know it. (The check-raise big on the turn plan goes right out the window!) If you just call the turn, then the pot is getting big and his river bet will offer you 3:2 and you know he is unlikely to hit his kicker, so you will be calling those big river bets a good portion of the time, so your turn call puts you in a crappy situation.

The only reasonable options are to fold the turn, or call and bluff the river some portion of the time just like you would if you held A7. I like the latter plan better. The overlay from the money already in the pot and from your positional "advantage" on the river compensates for being freerolled. In fact, the size of the pot alone makes a turn call profitable. If we ignore quads and smaller aces and assume Villain is always freerolling with 3 outs, then if you call the turn with the plan of check-calling the river 100% of the time, your expectation is 14/15 * 1/2 * 180 - 1/15 * 920 = 23. If you occasionally bluff him out on the river or correctly fold to his bigger boat, your profit is even higher.

I call on the turn.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded on the river. Villain did not show his hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Big laydown. I'd love to hear Diablo's take on that.

[n1bd]

[ QUOTE ]
If we ignore quads and smaller aces and assume Villain is always freerolling with 3 outs...

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm, maybe that is a bad simplification. Villain could very possibly play 66 exactly this way (although I think I would prefer an all-in on the turn).

There is 1 unseen A and 45 other unseen cards for a total of 45 possible Ax hands for Villain. There is 1 combo of 66, so if we put Villain on Ax or 66 on the turn, the expectation for the turn call becomes:
1/46 * (-920) + 45/46 * (14/15 * 1/2 * 180 - 1/15 * 920) = 2

Slightly profitable. But that's not the whole story. Unfortunately, Villain probably doesn't play every Ax he is dealt, so the relative chance of being up against 66 is much greater. If we say he plays 1/2 of his aces, which would be quite loose for a solid player, then your profit disappears:
2/47 * (-920) + 45/47 * (14/15 * 1/2 * 180 - 1/15 * 920) = -17
(In fact this calculation is very sensitive to the number of aces we assume Villain limps with.)

That assumes you always call on the river when you are beaten. You might be able to do better than this line. If your opponent doesn't typically bluff the river, then you get more free showdowns and can fold when beaten, in which case you should call on the turn. If he bluffs the river 100% of the time--a good play on his part--then you will never be able to call profitably on the turn. *Unless* you can recover the money by successfully bluffing randomly on the river (I haven't done the math, so I don't know if it compensates for the -17). "Successfully" is the key word there, though; if Villain will always call you, then there's no profit there, since you can't actually improve.

So now I am thinking you should fold the turn. (!!)

Once you have made it to the river, I think you need to call just because the card is a K and his preflop and flop action makes in unlikely he has AK, so he has AK/66 less than 20% of the time when he makes that bet.

If you accidentally made it to the river and it was a different card, though, like (AA66)T, then the case could be made for folding. There are 4 combos of AT/66, and if he limps, say, all suited aces and all A9-AK, he is playing 20 combos of aces, so that's 19% right there. If he plays tighter than this preflop, then it's an easy fold. If he bluffs somewhat less than 100% of the time when you are chopping, then P(AT/66 | river bet) > 20% and it is an easy fold.

[Loci]

He didn't raise preflop, so A/K seems unlikely... so the only hand you need to be afraid of here is 6/6. His betting doesn't read like flopped trips or a filled turn to me, so I really think this is a bad lay down.

[queenhigh]

was this on full tilt? i think i saw this hand

[fireitup123]

prima

[daniel1222]

I never understand the references to "prima"; whenever I go to the site it seems to just be a gateway to a bunch of other sites. Is there any one site in particular people are referring to? (I am especially interested in the big/soft games said to be on this site.)

[fireitup123]

www.primapoker.com
You can sign up from one of about 20 sites.
All these sites are playing people from other sites listed there, and all are considered part of the prima network.
It's similar to party and empire poker setup.
As far as the big games being great, I'm not sure about that. If they are, I don't expect them to stay that way long.