Frustration with the "long run"

[CORed]

The reality is that the worst case is not staying at break even for another 40,000 hands. There is a very good chance that no matter how well you play, you will hit a significant downswing. Your winrate is probably not sustainable. Somewhere down the road, a 100, 200 or possibly even 300 BB downswing is waiting for you. These happen to even the best poker players. Sometimes bad luck is compounded by bad play. Sometimes, even if you play very well, the cards just don't go your way. The worst downswings will feature lots monster hands that come in second, good draws that just never hit, your opponents draws, good and bad seemingly always hitting and your bluffs always running into strong hands. EV means expected value. Right now, you are almost certainly exceeding the EV of your plays. In a bad run you will be falling far short.

[meanjean]

[ QUOTE ]
Pokerookie,

I'm a bit disappointed in this entire thread. I've read your previous posts. You sound like an articulate person with a strong desire to use this forum to continue growing as a player. You usually give really good advice to others as well. I don't know what prompted you to post this, but one of the greatest attributes a player can have is humility and a relentless self-analysis of ones game. I'm afraid you're missing out on a golden opportunity here, the opportunity of self-analysis when you are running well! It might be even more important to do this than when you are running bad.
I'm also a bit disappointed in the responses you've received from veteran posters, because they of all people should appreciate how you feel right now...which is unstoppable. Your attitude is just part of the natural maturation process as a player. As someone who's been there I can say (politely) that you won't be able to sustain your winrate and that I'll be here with an open mind and words of encouragement when you post your first downswing rants.

Good luck man.

Pep.

[/ QUOTE ]


word!!!!!!!

I'm just hitting my first bad downswing now. Over 100 bb. I know some of it is bad play...I'm leaving a bet or two here and there. I'm running scared. My big hands are getting thumped so much that I'm afraid to bet or raise unless I have the absoute nuts. I have a feeling that some good is going to come of it as that now I play 100 hands and then get the hand history and pour over it counting outs, looking for bad calls, bad folds, and the like. In one hundred hand period I lost 20 bb by being outdrawn by a combined 4000 to 1 on the river. I never thought it would happen...boy was I wrong.

On the plus side, I've got one hell of a hot streak coming and I'm gonna know how to play it,

If you want to see how bad things can happen I'll send you my poker tracker files for the last two weeks.

as a side note: How do people handle these downturns...my confidence is shaken...I put everybody on pocket aces?

advise is welcome

[Viscant]

I'm writing his name down.

It's always these types of players who make the "Party is rigged!" or "Stars won't let me win anymore!" posts when they hit their first downstreak. I give him 2 months. Maybe 3 if he stays lucky.

[Derek in NYC]

this thread is funny.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
What I think it boils down to is this. When 8 players get cards, there is a 1/8 chance for every player to win, independent of the cards dealt. By playing premium holdings, you guarantee that you shift the odds in your favor (the whole concept of +EV). Since the most common rookie mistake is to play too many hands, you will have a number of these +EV situations which pay off for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to ignore that luck also plays a factor in poker. Yes, you could play +EV poker every hand. Doesn't guarantee you'll never have a downswing, or a horrific run of bad beats, or sessions where you get almost no playable hands at all, or a long run where every flop seems to miss you after you raised with AK. Even the best players in the world have had long streaks (relatively speaking) of minimal winnings or even losses... and I'm sure they are playing +EV poker.

Your current results are probably a combination of good play, and the absence of any extended bad runs of cards. Will not continue like that forever. Unless you're the luckiest person on the planet, in which case the laws of statistics and probabilities don't apply to you.

And your concept of sticking with the low limit games where all the fish are, will actually cost you money if you really are a good player. Winning 5BB/hour at $1-2 (even if that was sustainable which obviously you believe it is) will net you 10 bucks an hour. Winning 1BB/hour at $20-40 nets you $40 an hour. That's why good players move up. They're more interested in the bottom line than in bragging about their amazing BB/hr win rate.

[KidPokerX]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not a gambler, by nature. I stay away from risky situations ... I don't plan on leaving because I think I can continue to earn 10 BB/100 hands for as long as I play there... This all makes complete sense to me.


[/ QUOTE ]
...
I'm sitting here trying to find the best way to write my reaction, yet I can't. I am at a loss for words. Hopefully as you re-read this statement a small amount of reason shines through.
Best of luck - can't wait to see your 100K results.

-KidPokerX