Frustration with the "long run"

[pokerrookie]

This rant was originally part of another post, but thought it deserved its own.

About this 9000 hands isnt the long run idea.... Statistically that is true, but in the time that he has been playing these 9000 hands, many thousands of fish have given the game a shot, lost their bankroll and have never returned. More fish come in everyday with plenty of money to donate. If one continues to play at this same level, with the same style he has used thus far, he will continue to be a winning player, if not a good one. And let's face it, winning is way more important that being good. I get so sick and tired of these arrogant posters, grinding out a 1 BB/100 hand win rate bashing anybody that comes in with a "short-term" win rate of >5 BB/100. It is almost as if the posters are jealous that someone may be better than them, so they try and bring people down, by claiming long run. So here's my long run, 1 month, 10K hands of a 11BB/100 win rate (interestingly, at 5K hands, I only had 9 BB, guess I was even better in the longer run). If I play 10,000 more hands at break even, it is now 5.5 BB/100. If I play 20,000 more after that, at break even, I will now have 2.75 BB/100. Another 40,000 at break even and I will be at 1.38 BB/100. So, let's see thats my next 70K hands, at break even....my long term winrate is good 1.4 BB/100, but am I still a good player? I guess you would all agree that I am, but who in these forums will sit through a streak of 70K hands at break even. I would certainly give up the game, as I would have a hard time justifing to my wife, the fact that I sit online for 3 hours a night, but have nothing to show for it.

In conclusion, I just don't see how 1 month of playing only premium cards, making +EV moves, betting monsters while folding losers, if continued, will not translate into similar, if not better, long run success.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]
I get so sick and tired of these arrogant posters, grinding out a 1 BB/100 hand win rate bashing anybody that comes in with a "short-term" win rate of >5 BB/100. It is almost as if the posters are jealous that someone may be better than them, so they try and bring people down, by claiming long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sure you're right. It's all jealousy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Point is, people who've actually been at this for a long time (not me) - have experienced the bankroll swings that come with winning and losing streaks. They've heard countless stories from new players who have decided they're better than anyone else who ever played the game, because they have a 5BB win rate at $1-2 over the short term.

They're not trying to bring anybody down. If you're winning at a 5BB rate that's great. Good for you. But I think they are trying to point out the possible pitfalls a new player might face down the road. It can be helpful if you take the time to listen instead of thinking, "They're all just jealous because I'm so much better than them". You're not.

Overconfidence and unrealistic expectations are not a good recipe for long-term poker success.

[bcunha]

[ QUOTE ]
In conclusion, I just don't see how 1 month of playing only premium cards, making +EV moves, betting monsters while folding losers, if continued, will not translate into similar, if not better, long run success.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pull this off for a couple months and then you might understand.

[Bluffoon]

[ QUOTE ]
This rant was originally part of another post, but thought it deserved its own.

About this 9000 hands isnt the long run idea.... Statistically that is true, but in the time that he has been playing these 9000 hands, many thousands of fish have given the game a shot, lost their bankroll and have never returned. More fish come in everyday with plenty of money to donate. If one continues to play at this same level, with the same style he has used thus far, he will continue to be a winning player, if not a good one. And let's face it, winning is way more important that being good. I get so sick and tired of these arrogant posters, grinding out a 1 BB/100 hand win rate bashing anybody that comes in with a "short-term" win rate of >5 BB/100. It is almost as if the posters are jealous that someone may be better than them, so they try and bring people down, by claiming long run. So here's my long run, 1 month, 10K hands of a 11BB/100 win rate (interestingly, at 5K hands, I only had 9 BB, guess I was even better in the longer run). If I play 10,000 more hands at break even, it is now 5.5 BB/100. If I play 20,000 more after that, at break even, I will now have 2.75 BB/100. Another 40,000 at break even and I will be at 1.38 BB/100. So, let's see thats my next 70K hands, at break even....my long term winrate is good 1.4 BB/100, but am I still a good player? I guess you would all agree that I am, but who in these forums will sit through a streak of 70K hands at break even. I would certainly give up the game, as I would have a hard time justifing to my wife, the fact that I sit online for 3 hours a night, but have nothing to show for it.

In conclusion, I just don't see how 1 month of playing only premium cards, making +EV moves, betting monsters while folding losers, if continued, will not translate into similar, if not better, long run success.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know you want 10k hands to be the long run and you want to be able to win consistently day in day out at 2.4 bb/100 or whatever but that's just not the way it is. There will be long stretches of time when you break even and there will be long periods where you are playing +EV poker and losing.

That's just the way it is. If you don't accept it then you may not be content playing poker.

[aflaba]

Haven't even read the post yet. Want to post my spontanious thought.

I hate the long run

[steamboatin]

There are so many things wrong with your thought process that it is beyond my ability to explain it. I don't think you are ready to listen if I took the time.

You should read Gambling Theory and other Topics by Mason Malmuth.

I have been playing poker for two yers, primarily at B&M and I am in the black for those two years and do you know what that means?

Absolutely Nothing

The biggest fish in the world can easily be ahead after two years of play in a B&M all he has to do is run good. Standard deviation can easily account for my wins. I am in the black after a year of Internet play, that also means nothing.

You are forgetting or have never understood that Poker is Gambling. Just because you make the right plays that doesn't mean you will win.

Pugsy Pearson had a two year losing streak playing full time for a living and I bet dollars to doughnuts you are not as good as Pugsy Pearson was during his downswing.

I hope variance never bites you in the butt. Just remember this little rant when it does.

[Snoogins47]

I thought I was the [censored] after completely crushing $1/$2 and $2/$4 for my first month as well.

[pokerrookie]

So maybe I am not as interested in becoming a good poker player and the only number I care about is winrate.

Consider the following extreme example. Suppose that every time you sit down at a table, you are playing a 4 hour session (50 buy in) with 7 people that have never played the game, for a total of 8. Statistics say that half the players at the table will win, and the other half will lose. Surely you would agree that you would be among the winners if you are an expert player. Maybe night in and night out, you are not the biggest winner, and there may be a night or two where you dont win, but you will win a majority of times. Thus, of the $400 that come to the table, you might easily expect to leave with on average, one other person's buy-in and your own. Though, since all of them are new, probably you might expect to leave with more. In 2 hours, you probably play 100 hands, winning only 50 would translate to 12.5 BB/100. The other three winners get excited about their skill, and move up. The 4 that busted out never come back to online poker. The next night, another 7 new players join you. The same scenario should happen every night.

What I think it boils down to is this. When 8 players get cards, there is a 1/8 chance for every player to win, independent of the cards dealt. By playing premium holdings, you guarantee that you shift the odds in your favor (the whole concept of +EV). Since the most common rookie mistake is to play too many hands, you will have a number of these +EV situations which pay off for you. Especially if you can lay down marginal hands when the flop misses. Will you ever be a better player praying on the weak newbie fishie garbage...probably not. Can you make a very solid living, which is reliable in the long term, even +10BB/100 hands...I guess I find it hard to believe that not to be true. I have always maintained that the biggest way to destroy a bankroll is to move up to where the players are better, more selective, less fishy. Why not hang out with the scrubs, consistently taking their money, while rarely, if ever, putting your own at risk. But I guess that is the difference between me and the other posters here. I am not a gambler, by nature. I stay away from risky situations. I was fortunate enough to survive the initial learning curve of online poker by receiving bonuses. Now, I feel like I have developed the skills to consistently beat a specific limit, at a couple of specific sites, and I don't plan on leaving. I don't plan on leaving because I think I can continue to earn 10 BB/100 hands for as long as I play there, assuming new players continue to join the game, and the good players continue to move up away from my limit. This all makes complete sense to me.

[Snoogins47]

FWIW, if you're playing no limit, this entire thread might as well be closed, because nobody will ever argue that a "good" player would be beating lower and mediums takes NL games for only 1bb/100. And your post about the homegame makes me think you might be.

[SomethingClever]

Wow. You are in for a shocker when you hit your first downswing.

I played 30,000 hands and won 4.75 BB/100.

Then I played another 20,000 hands and won 0.3 BB/100.

It happens, and it'll happen to you.

And BTW, nobody is jealous of people who come on and post high short-term winrates. They're trying to prepare those people for the shock that can happen when you hit a 100, 200, 300 BB or more downswing.

See David Ross' post in General for further enlightenment.