10+1 Hand - where did I go wrong? - Page 3

ChrisV · #21 02-03-2005, 09:05 PM

Folding preflop is too tight. Folding the turn is also too tight but not so bad.

Raising the river is the problem here. Perhaps he has a worse jack, but I dunno. That's a pretty confident river bet into two opponents. Also, if he has a worse jack, a decent player will not call the allin raise here, even at the $10 level. As a matter of fact, I think that's exactly what UTG+1 had.

Raising the river is much too dangerous.

adanthar · #22 02-03-2005, 11:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm less afraid of the person who bet 55 than the caller.

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Exactly you make an overcall here with nothing but middle pair. From our lessons in limit you must have a better hand to make an overcall than to call an initial bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

As Gigabet puts it, play the situation, not the rules.

This is a 10+1. The caller in this situation is almost always close to dead money.

gh9801 · #23 02-04-2005, 07:47 AM

All the checks on such a discoordinated flop was dangerous. With so many limpers it was easy for someone to be slowplaying their set or kings, especially at PP 10+1 SNGs, where many players will slowplay their sets no matter what. Preflop was fine, I think. I think the turn was either raise or fold - raise to find out where you stand in this hand, or fold because UTG and UTG+1 probably have you both beat (unless they hold hearts). River raise was too aggressive because the possiblity of a set was too real.

goalltheway · #24 02-04-2005, 08:48 AM

As a low limit 2 tabler, i have found one thing common amongst most all of my opponents: If their hand either does not hit or improve, or the board becomes dangerous BUT they have led the betting on the flop and/or the turn, their bet will NOT increase on the river (and will usually be invitingly small throughout) but there WILL be a bet. Lower limit players begin to grasp the concept of following through with agression, but not adjusting to the board or opponents. (the more skilled ones also realize that after you have gleaned off 1/3 to 1/2 of your opponent's stack during the hand, a check on the end is an INVITATION to bluff the remaining chips). Our villian, in this instance, makes a bet appropriate to the current pot and board(watch out... at a 10+1, this is a rarity)

The bet on the river, into two opponents, might be worth a moment of reflection in the higher limits, but not at a 10+1 table.

Information is important... at these blind levels, you have none. I realize that many of you multi-tablers ASSUME poor play (in lieu of actual observation) but you must have a DAMN good read to reraise here.

ColdestCall · #25 02-04-2005, 12:58 PM

Ok, back at work, so time to get back into this hand....Good discussion so far, one that may have me revising certain aspects of my play.

Adanthar, I'm a little more willing to entertain the notion of a raise here than a call, mostly because I'm having trouble seeing a good line on the river if you call. First of all, if you call people may call behind you, thereby increasing the chances of back door sutpidity on the river. Even if they do not call behind you, there are a full 16 cards that you really do not want to see on the river - 8 hearts, 3 queens, 3 10's and 2 nines. (Assuming, as we are in our best case scenario, UTG holds a worse J like JQ, or J-10, and UTG+1 is on some kind of draw, these cards finish us off. An 8 may not be so hot either, but I'll leave those three out for the time being.) So a solid 35% of the time you are in trouble on the river if the opponent had the weak hands you were hoping for. Now, let's say one of those 16 does not hit the river, and you do not improve? What is the plan if someone bets at you, say 200? The call showed weakness, so if UTG has the JQ we were hoping for, he may well take another crack at the pot. If it is checked to you, what do you do? I am not as confident as you that a K is not out there. Five other people took this flop. It's not too hard to imagine a weak K checking to see if anyone bet the flop, nor is it too hard to imagine a stronger K checking with the intention of raising. So a small bet that a worse J will call, will also be called by a weak K. In fact, you're probably going to have to bet a fair amount to knock out a weak K, and you'll get called by a strong K. True, if it is checked to you and you bet big, you will take it down almost all of the time, likely enough to compensate you for very small number of times you blow up, so maybe this is the line if it is checked to you....

Anyway, if you raise, you knock out the people behind you (in all likelihood), but how much to raise? Do you really want a call? If anyone plays back with any strength, it's pretty safe to say you're cooked and you can go ahead and fold the hand. Calls are problematic though. Your raise will likely fold out the weak J, and, if it's high enough, the weak K, and the draws. A raise to 150 or so may get two calls, from a J with a draw followed by a straight or flush draw, or from a weak K and a draw, or from a strong K and a draw, etc., and you would be back to looking at the river with 16 possible scare cards, and maybe even a second best hand, but now a big pot that you are invested in. Hitting it hard, say to 250, will take down the pot except when you run into a strong K or a monster, so if you are going to raise, maybe this is the play.

I dunno - the more I look at it the more I can't get away from the thought that the risk/reward profile for getting involved here is just not favorable for Level 1 of an SNG. Even if you are going to win chips the majority of the time, it doesnt feel like you are going to win enough to compensate you for the chips you lose when you dont win.

Which brings me to my last point - everyone seems to think that folding the A-J preflop is out of the question. Well, if everyone agrees, I'm not going to insist I'm right (although I will likely go on folding it) - maybe they are right and I'm too tight. However, consider this: A-Jo is a hand that is difficult to win a big pot with, and not too hard to bleed chips with. That is not the description of a hand I want to play early in a SNG.

lorinda · #26 02-04-2005, 01:14 PM

everyone seems to think that folding the A-J preflop is out of the question.

I don't.

Lori

Scuba Chuck · #27 02-04-2005, 01:18 PM

everyone seems to think that folding the A-J preflop is out of the question.

I would have folded it here. I would have only limped if I had some extra chips.

ColdestCall · #28 02-04-2005, 01:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
everyone seems to think that folding the A-J preflop is out of the question.

I don't.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

That makes me feel a lot better. Lori, I'd be interested in hearing the rest of your thoughts on this hand, other than the always sage advice to make quads on the river.... I sense learning opportunity here.

stillnotking · #29 02-04-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
everyone seems to think that folding the A-J preflop is out of the question.

I don't.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't either. I would have laid this hand down. Raising isn't worth considering with so many limpers, and AJo is not really a calling hand in NL, even on the button. I would rather call with A2s than AJo in this spot.

Remember the Doyle aphorism: don't go broke in an unraised pot.

lorinda · #30 02-04-2005, 02:10 PM

It's one of those hands I hate (Which is why I often fold AJ preflop here)

I can't honestly say I'd fold for 55 on the turn, it's just too big a pot to fold for such a small amount.
I'll still have 600 or more chips at the end of this pot barring a disaster, so I feel the chance of winning 300 is about worth it, as I like stacks of over 1k.

My plan really is to call 55 again on the river and then post it on the forum.

The river of course is just horrific, I'd be lying if I said I could put this down, but I'm certainly not raising.

Lori